Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From January 2 to June 28, 2025, SHFE lead weighted rose 2.39%, and LME lead rose 4.61%. In the first half of the year, apart from macro - impacts, lead prices were mainly affected by secondary lead supply. Due to high prices of lead - containing scrap and low lead prices, secondary lead smelting enterprises frequently cut production due to losses [4]. - In the second half of the year, July - August is the traditional peak season for lead - acid battery consumption in China. With the "trade - in" policy, domestic lead consumption is expected to grow steadily. However, the shortage of lead - containing scrap supply may cause secondary lead smelting enterprises to have periodic production cuts, which may interfere with domestic lead ingot supply. It is expected that the center of lead prices will move up, and there may be periodic gaps in domestic secondary lead supply, leading to price fluctuations [5][117]. Summary by Directory 1. Preface Summary 1.1 Market Review - From January 2 to June 28, 2025, SHFE lead weighted rose 2.39%, and LME lead rose 4.61%. The lead price trend was affected by factors such as smelting profit, downstream replenishment, "tariff policy", and secondary lead smelting cost [4]. 1.2 Market Outlook - In the second half of the year, domestic lead consumption is expected to grow steadily during the peak season with policy support. But the shortage of lead - containing scrap may cause secondary lead production cuts and affect lead supply and prices [5]. 1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The center of lead prices moves up with wide - range fluctuations. Try high - selling and low - buying operations based on secondary lead supply and consumption peak seasons [6][118]. - Options: Pay attention to the boost of consumption on lead prices and secondary lead production cuts, and try selling put options or buying call options at appropriate times [6][118]. 2. Fundamental Situation 2.1 Raw Material End - **Global Lead Concentrate Supply**: In January - April 2025, global lead ore production was 1.4324 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.51%. Overseas production was 0.8454 million tons, up 3.12% year - on - year, and China's production was 0.587 million tons, also up 3.12% year - on - year [19]. - **Domestic Lead Ore Supply**: From January to May, domestic lead concentrate production was 0.6339 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.61%. With rising lead prices, by - product benefits, and new mine production, domestic lead concentrate supply improved. In June, northern mines resumed production, and it is expected that production will increase and processing fees may rise slightly in the second half of the year. From January to May, lead concentrate imports were 0.5525 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.93%. The import window may remain open in the second half of the year [21][24]. - **Lead - containing Scrap**: In the first half of the year, lead - containing scrap was difficult to recycle, and prices rose. Although smelters tried to lower purchase prices, prices rebounded due to shortages. In the second half of the year, the "trade - in" policy may increase recycling, but supply may still be short, and prices may remain high. Prices may drop periodically with secondary lead production cuts [32]. 2.2 Smelting End - **Global Refined Lead Balance**: From January to April 2025, cumulative global refined lead production was 4.3916 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.08%; cumulative consumption was 4.3697 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.66%, with a cumulative surplus of 21,900 tons [35]. - **Domestic Primary Lead Supply**: From January to May, domestic electrolytic lead production was 1.5651 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.42%. After the lead price recovered and processing fees rebounded, smelters turned profitable. With new plants in production and less maintenance in the second half of the year, production may continue to rise if profitability is maintained [41]. - **Domestic Secondary Lead Supply**: From January to May, domestic secondary lead production was 1.347 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.61%. High scrap prices and low lead prices led to production cuts. In the second half of the year, there are expectations of production resumption and increase, but long - term over - capacity and high scrap prices may still cause production cuts and periodic supply shortages [53]. - **Import and Export Situation**: From January to May 2025, China's refined lead exports were 20,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.53%; imports were 16,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3089.06%. Net exports were 4700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66.14%. Cumulative imports of refined lead and related products were 63,500 tons, up 181.46% year - on - year, and exports were 29,900 tons, up 24.37% year - on - year [60]. 2.3 Demand End - **Battery Market**: As of June 27, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid batteries was 68.77%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.56%. From February to May, the operating rate increased due to policies and "rush - to - export" orders. In June, it declined due to the off - season and order over - drafting. In the second half of the year, the peak season and policies may boost consumption, but there may be off - seasons after the peak [71]. - **Terminal Market**: - **Automobile Market**: From January to May, automobile production and sales were 12.826 million and 12.748 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 10.9%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million vehicles respectively, up 45.2% and 44% year - on - year. In the second half of the year, production and sales are expected to increase with policy support, which will positively affect lead consumption [84]. - **Electric Bicycle Market**: By May 20, 6.08 million old and new electric bicycles were traded in, driving new vehicle sales of 17.82 billion yuan. The "trade - in" policy continues, but the industry is in the mature stage, and the lithium - battery market may affect lead - acid battery consumption [87]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 3.1 Future Outlook - Similar to the market outlook in the preface, the second half of the year may see stable growth in lead consumption but periodic supply shortages in secondary lead, leading to price fluctuations [117]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendation - The same as the strategy recommendation in the preface, including unilateral high - selling and low - buying operations and option trading based on consumption and secondary lead production cuts [6][118].