Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the weekly trends of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon, presenting the latest logic changes, supply - demand situations, and price trends for each metal [1] Summary by Catalog Copper - **Market sentiment**: Both domestic and foreign prices are oscillating, with a rigid support at the LME average price. The market is trading the probability of the Fed's December interest rate cut, and the probability has rapidly increased [1] - **Domestic supply - demand**: The long - term negotiation of domestic copper concentrate processing fees is highly concerned. The spot import copper concentrate index is below $10. Domestic refined copper output in November is expected to decline month - on - month. In October, refined copper exports increased to 6.59 tons, and scrap copper imports reached 19.66 tons, with a cumulative supply increase of 1.99% in the first ten months. The output of major household appliances in October decreased month - on - month, and the market is watching the power - end orders. The domestic spot copper price passively follows the futures price, and there is a certain bullish sentiment in the spot market. The SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 tons to 18.06 tons [1] - **Overseas situation**: Freeport is expected to restart the production of the Indonesian Grasberg copper - gold mine before July 2026, with the 2026 production expected to be the same as in 2025. The market is concerned about the restrictions on scrap copper exports. Affected by UK tariffs, European scrap copper has flowed to the Americas, and the COMEX copper inventory has reached a record high of nearly 37 tons [1] - **Price trend**: Last week, the "head - and - shoulders" pattern of Shanghai copper was supported at a key position, and trading became oscillating again. The stop - loss position of previous short positions was lowered to 86,500 yuan, using the 11 - 10 - day moving average as the strength - weakness boundary [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The price in Guinea is dropping towards $70, with an expected increase in ore supply. The domestic operating alumina production capacity is 9.61 million tons. Some enterprise overhauls or technological upgrades have short - term impacts, and there is no long - term production reduction. The alumina market is in significant oversupply, and the spot index is approaching the cash - loss level. Low - cost enterprises still have profits, and the price is weakly moving towards the support level of 2,000 yuan in the first half of the year [1] - **Supply**: The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is stable above 4 million tons. The first - phase 80 electrolytic cells of Tianshan Aluminum's second - phase project are gradually being put into production, and a 30,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of SPIC is planned to start production at the end of the year [1] - **Demand**: The SMM shows that the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises remains at 62%. In October, aluminum product exports decreased by 20,000 tons month - on - month to 48,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%; aluminum product exports decreased by 24,000 tons month - on - month to 290,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% [1] - **Inventory and spot**: Last week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 33,000 tons to 613,000 tons, and the social inventory of aluminum rods decreased by 16,000 tons to 130,000 tons. The inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. The spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China have slightly narrowed, and the processing fee of South China aluminum rods has rebounded to 300 - 100 yuan [1] - **Price trend**: In the short term, the macro - sentiment is volatile, and the market risk preference is suppressed. The non - ferrous metals market has reduced positions and prices have declined. The fundamentals of the aluminum market have limited contradictions. After the price decline, downstream enterprises replenish stocks at low prices, with rigid demand but few highlights. The Shanghai aluminum price has fallen below the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, and the short - term upward trend has turned to oscillation, with a possible continued adjustment and support at around 21,100 yuan [1] Zinc - **Price trend**: The zinc price is weakly adjusting, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has narrowed [1] - **Spot and supply**: Under extreme domestic - foreign spreads, the export of zinc in November is expected to increase. The zinc inventory has increased to 47,325 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot premium is still at $140/ton. As the weather turns cold, domestic northern mines are gradually shutting down, and the supply of ore is further tightened. The TC of domestic and foreign mines is declining. The zinc price has fallen, and downstream enterprises are replenishing stocks at low prices. The SMM zinc social inventory has decreased to 151,000 tons. The split structure of domestic and foreign inventories is gradually being repaired, the import - ore smelting profit has improved, and domestic smelters' acceptance of imported ore has increased. Due to the high sulfuric acid price of 980 yuan/ton, the production - reduction expectation of domestic smelters in December is not strong, and the supply - reduction pressure of zinc ingots is not significantly weakened [1] - **Consumption**: The export of galvanized products is bright. Domestically, due to the weak real estate market, the slowdown of infrastructure investment growth, and the end of the photovoltaic and wind - power installation rush, the expected consumption increment is insufficient. As the northern weather turns cold, the demand enters the off - season, and downstream enterprises are cautious about future orders [1] - **Price trend**: Supported by smelting costs, with good external demand but weak domestic demand, be vigilant about the rapid change of capital sentiment. The Shanghai zinc price is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [1] Lead - **Price trend**: The LME lead has a high inventory, the domestic supply is increasing while the demand is weak, and long - position holders are leaving the market. Both domestic and foreign prices have dropped sharply, with the LME lead falling 3.73% and the Shanghai lead falling 1.91% last week. The import window for lead has opened [1] - **Spot and supply**: The LME lead inventory is at a high level of 282,000 tons. The supply of domestic lead concentrate is tight, with the imported ore TC at - 100 to - 90 dollars/dry ton and the domestic PB50 lead concentrate at 200 - 100 yuan/metal ton. The SMM lead social inventory has decreased to 37,000 tons, and the finished - product inventory of recycled lead enterprises has decreased to 2,400 tons, the lowest since 2021. There are both overhauls and restarts in primary and recycled lead smelters. In the short term, the supply of recycled lead is slightly tight, and the price difference between refined and recycled lead has narrowed to 25 yuan/ton. The SMM 1 lead's discount to the near - month contract has narrowed to 65 yuan/ton. The import window opened intermittently in November, and the overseas replenishment is expected to reach the October level. Pay attention to the production dynamics of recycled smelters after profit pressure [1] - **Consumption**: From January to October, the cumulative export of lead - acid batteries was 186 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.31%. Affected by tariffs and the improvement of overseas battery supply capacity, there is no expected increment in battery exports at the end of the year. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, the terminal consumption of batteries has not improved significantly, and different battery production enterprises have different order performances. Enterprises produce according to sales. The finished - product inventory of battery enterprises is 15 - 17 days, and the raw - material inventory is 3 - 1 days. Domestic consumption lacks growth expectations but has rigid demand [1] - **Price trend**: There is a game between cost and consumption. The Shanghai lead price is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market situation**: The Shanghai nickel price is oscillating downward, with dull trading and increasing positions; the Shanghai stainless - steel price is also declining, with decreasing trading volume [1] - **Demand**: In the stainless - steel spot market, the nickel premium is 500 yuan, and the electrowon nickel premium is 250 yuan. The Jinchuan spot price is resistant to decline, and the high - nickel ferrochrome price is 89 yuan/nickel point. The support brought by the previous price rebound is weakening, and the overall price of the industrial chain is under pressure. A large stainless - steel manufacturer has announced the procurement prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome, weakening the cost support, and the spot price is difficult to change the weak situation [1] - **Spot and supply**: The Jinchuan premium is 4,350 yuan. The pure nickel inventory has decreased by 900 tons to 52,300 tons, the ferro - nickel inventory has increased by 700 tons to 30,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 12,000 tons to 940,000 tons [1] - **Conclusion**: The Shanghai nickel market will reduce inventory, but short - selling is the main strategy [1] Tin - **Market situation**: The domestic and foreign tin prices are oscillating at a high level. The Shanghai tin market has reduced positions, but the enthusiasm of long - term funds for trading is still high. Pay attention to the situation in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo again, and the Shanghai tin price has repeatedly tested 295,000 yuan [1] - **Supply**: In October, the physical volume of domestic tin concentrate imports was at a high - low level, with the main importing countries contributing to the increment. The situation in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo is tense, and a landslide in a tin mine has caused heavy casualties among manual miners, but there is no news about Alpha Tin's production and sales [1] - **Consumption**: There are few domestic highlights. The household appliance output in October decreased month - on - month, and the consumer electronics market is average. The SMM social inventory has increased by 211 tons to 2,050 tons, the LME inventory is 3,085 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot premium has expanded to $114. The domestic and foreign inventories are lower than the same period in the previous two years, and the situation is relatively neutral [1] - **Price trend**: Continuously track the news from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. After the previous high - position short positions stop - loss at 295,000 yuan, short - selling is the main strategy, and out - of - the - money call options can be used to hedge risks [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Market situation**: Last week, the lithium carbonate futures had a strong start at the beginning of the week and a weak end at the weekend, with active trading and significant capital movement [1] - **Spot**: The Shanghai lithium carbonate spot price has continued to rise, reaching 92,000 yuan. The price difference between industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate is 2,400 yuan/ton. Lithium salt factories are operating at a high - capacity utilization rate, and overseas mines are raising prices and frequently releasing goods [1] - **Demand**: Downstream material factories are actively producing, with both supply and demand booming. The production plans of battery and cathode - material enterprises in November are continuously improving, and the inventory of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to decrease [1] - **Supply**: The total market inventory has decreased by 200 tons to 118,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 2,170 tons to 26,000 tons, the downstream inventory has decreased by 3,300 tons to 49,000 tons, and the trader inventory has increased by 3,150 tons to 48,000 tons. The sentiment in the intermediate link has recovered, and the spot market has certain support. The latest price of Australian mines is $1,130, and the mine - end price remains strong [1] - **Price trend**: The futures price is oscillating violently at a high level, with large market differences, and risk control should be the priority [1] Industrial Silicon - **Price**: Last week, the "anti - involution" measure of joint production reduction by the organic silicon industry boosted the market sentiment. The price broke through the previous high of 800 yuan/ton but failed to maintain, and then fell back to around 9,000 yuan/ton to oscillate [1] - **Supply - demand**: The weekly operating rate in Xinjiang is stable at 8% (unchanged month - on - month), and the operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan are also unchanged month - on - month. Sichuan will enter the dry - water period at the end of November, and the operating rate may decline. The domestic polysilicon production in November is expected to be close to 120,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from October (affected by seasonal shutdowns), and the production in December is expected to decline slightly [1] - **Demand**: The domestic organic silicon printing price has increased to 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of about 850 yuan/ton. The actual - controller meeting of downstream factories has reached a consensus on production reduction, which will be implemented on December 1, and it is expected to reduce the demand for industrial silicon by about 400 tons per month [1] - **Inventory**: The SMM industrial silicon rod and powder inventory is 548,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons. Among them, the inventory in ordinary warehouses is 129,000 tons (an increase of 2,000 tons), and the inventory in bonded warehouses is 419,000 tons (unchanged) [1] - **Summary**: The expected production reduction in the organic silicon industry is expected to have a limited impact on the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon. In the short term, the futures price will maintain an oscillating trend. Track the organic silicon price dynamics, and the downstream price - fixing repair may further drive market fluctuations [1] Polysilicon - **Price**: The polysilicon price has remained stable [1] - **Supply**: Affected by seasonal factors, the polysilicon industry's production plan in November has decreased by 14,000 tons compared to October, and there is an expected downward adjustment in December. After the overseas demand recedes, the domestic demand for silicon wafers has also declined, and the intensified industry competition has put pressure on the external procurement demand for silicon wafers [1] - **Inventory**: The SMM data shows that the polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 259,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 2,000 tons [1] - **Price trend**: Currently, the prices and production plans of downstream silicon wafers and battery wafers in the photovoltaic industry chain are continuously weakening. Although the polysilicon industry itself is showing a month - on - month production - reduction trend, the actual effect of the marginal improvement in supply - demand is limited. In the short term, the polysilicon futures price is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment on the one hand and its own fundamentals on the other hand, and is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From January 2 to June 28, 2025, SHFE lead weighted rose 2.39%, and LME lead rose 4.61%. In the first half of the year, apart from macro - impacts, lead prices were mainly affected by secondary lead supply. Due to high prices of lead - containing scrap and low lead prices, secondary lead smelting enterprises frequently cut production due to losses [4]. - In the second half of the year, July - August is the traditional peak season for lead - acid battery consumption in China. With the "trade - in" policy, domestic lead consumption is expected to grow steadily. However, the shortage of lead - containing scrap supply may cause secondary lead smelting enterprises to have periodic production cuts, which may interfere with domestic lead ingot supply. It is expected that the center of lead prices will move up, and there may be periodic gaps in domestic secondary lead supply, leading to price fluctuations [5][117]. Summary by Directory 1. Preface Summary 1.1 Market Review - From January 2 to June 28, 2025, SHFE lead weighted rose 2.39%, and LME lead rose 4.61%. The lead price trend was affected by factors such as smelting profit, downstream replenishment, "tariff policy", and secondary lead smelting cost [4]. 1.2 Market Outlook - In the second half of the year, domestic lead consumption is expected to grow steadily during the peak season with policy support. But the shortage of lead - containing scrap may cause secondary lead production cuts and affect lead supply and prices [5]. 1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: The center of lead prices moves up with wide - range fluctuations. Try high - selling and low - buying operations based on secondary lead supply and consumption peak seasons [6][118]. - Options: Pay attention to the boost of consumption on lead prices and secondary lead production cuts, and try selling put options or buying call options at appropriate times [6][118]. 2. Fundamental Situation 2.1 Raw Material End - **Global Lead Concentrate Supply**: In January - April 2025, global lead ore production was 1.4324 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.51%. Overseas production was 0.8454 million tons, up 3.12% year - on - year, and China's production was 0.587 million tons, also up 3.12% year - on - year [19]. - **Domestic Lead Ore Supply**: From January to May, domestic lead concentrate production was 0.6339 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.61%. With rising lead prices, by - product benefits, and new mine production, domestic lead concentrate supply improved. In June, northern mines resumed production, and it is expected that production will increase and processing fees may rise slightly in the second half of the year. From January to May, lead concentrate imports were 0.5525 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.93%. The import window may remain open in the second half of the year [21][24]. - **Lead - containing Scrap**: In the first half of the year, lead - containing scrap was difficult to recycle, and prices rose. Although smelters tried to lower purchase prices, prices rebounded due to shortages. In the second half of the year, the "trade - in" policy may increase recycling, but supply may still be short, and prices may remain high. Prices may drop periodically with secondary lead production cuts [32]. 2.2 Smelting End - **Global Refined Lead Balance**: From January to April 2025, cumulative global refined lead production was 4.3916 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.08%; cumulative consumption was 4.3697 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.66%, with a cumulative surplus of 21,900 tons [35]. - **Domestic Primary Lead Supply**: From January to May, domestic electrolytic lead production was 1.5651 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.42%. After the lead price recovered and processing fees rebounded, smelters turned profitable. With new plants in production and less maintenance in the second half of the year, production may continue to rise if profitability is maintained [41]. - **Domestic Secondary Lead Supply**: From January to May, domestic secondary lead production was 1.347 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.61%. High scrap prices and low lead prices led to production cuts. In the second half of the year, there are expectations of production resumption and increase, but long - term over - capacity and high scrap prices may still cause production cuts and periodic supply shortages [53]. - **Import and Export Situation**: From January to May 2025, China's refined lead exports were 20,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.53%; imports were 16,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3089.06%. Net exports were 4700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 66.14%. Cumulative imports of refined lead and related products were 63,500 tons, up 181.46% year - on - year, and exports were 29,900 tons, up 24.37% year - on - year [60]. 2.3 Demand End - **Battery Market**: As of June 27, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid batteries was 68.77%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.56%. From February to May, the operating rate increased due to policies and "rush - to - export" orders. In June, it declined due to the off - season and order over - drafting. In the second half of the year, the peak season and policies may boost consumption, but there may be off - seasons after the peak [71]. - **Terminal Market**: - **Automobile Market**: From January to May, automobile production and sales were 12.826 million and 12.748 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 10.9%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million vehicles respectively, up 45.2% and 44% year - on - year. In the second half of the year, production and sales are expected to increase with policy support, which will positively affect lead consumption [84]. - **Electric Bicycle Market**: By May 20, 6.08 million old and new electric bicycles were traded in, driving new vehicle sales of 17.82 billion yuan. The "trade - in" policy continues, but the industry is in the mature stage, and the lithium - battery market may affect lead - acid battery consumption [87]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 3.1 Future Outlook - Similar to the market outlook in the preface, the second half of the year may see stable growth in lead consumption but periodic supply shortages in secondary lead, leading to price fluctuations [117]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendation - The same as the strategy recommendation in the preface, including unilateral high - selling and low - buying operations and option trading based on consumption and secondary lead production cuts [6][118].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical conflicts have escalated, leading to a decline in macro - risk appetite. Fundamental support has increased, with a sequential decline in recycled lead supply due to environmental inspections and losses. However, consumption is in the transition phase between peak and off - peak seasons, showing no obvious recovery, and inventory has increased slightly, slowing down the upward momentum of lead prices. Supply - side contradictions support lead prices to fluctuate strongly, but significant improvement in consumption is needed to effectively open up the upside space. Short - term attention should be paid to the resistance around 17,200 yuan/ton [3][7] Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From June 6th to June 13th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,780 yuan/ton to 16,945 yuan/ton, an increase of 165 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,974 dollars/ton to 1,992.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 18.5 dollars/ton; the SHFE - LME ratio remained unchanged at 8.50. The SHFE inventory increased by 1,875 tons to 49,811 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 16,300 tons to 264,975 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.08 million tons to 5.47 million tons. The spot premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 205 yuan/ton [4] 2. Market Review - Last week, the price center of the main SHFE lead contract PB2507 moved up, mainly boosted by the production cuts of recycled lead smelters in Inner Mongolia and Anhui due to environmental inspections. However, the increase was slowed down by the inventory increase, and it finally closed at 16,945 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.98%. The LME lead price maintained a sideways shock, closing at 1,992 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 0.91%. In the spot market, by June 13th, the price of Chihong and Honglu lead in the Shanghai market was 16,930 - 16,980 yuan/ton, at a discount of 50 - 0 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2507 contract. The ex - factory prices of electrolytic lead smelters were firm, and recycled lead smelters actively quoted for sales. Downstream enterprises were more cautious, with fewer inquiries and weaker spot market transactions [5] 3. Industry News - As of the week of June 13th, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 600 yuan/metal ton and - 45 dollars/dry ton respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous week [8] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratio, inventory, lead price premiums and discounts, price differences between primary and recycled lead, recycled lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, production of primary and recycled lead, social inventory of lead ingots, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][12][13]