专题报告 2025-08-26 铅：联储鸽派能否缓解终端消费压力 吴坤金 报告要点： 需求端，高温假期后，下游蓄企开工率快速回暖。但终端库存数据以及电池出口数据显示，当 前铅蓄电池终端消费压力仍然较大。供应端，铅矿显性库存小幅抬升，铅精矿加工费加速下探。 再生铅原料库存亦有小幅抬升，原再冶炼厂铅锭成品库存均有小幅抬升，供应端边际放量。短 期来看，初端企业开工抬升，大宗商品情绪偏多，铅价下方仍有支撑。但中期来看，终端消费 压力仍然较大，联储货币政策对铅价影响弱于其他有色金属，后续仍有下行风险。 张世骄（联系人） 有色研究员 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 有色研究员 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 有色金属研究 | 铅 铅：联储鸽派能否缓解终端消费压力 弱需求：旺季不旺，终端消费压力大 初端消费来看，铅酸蓄电池企业周度平均开工率 71.64%，接近 10 天的高温假期后，下游蓄企 开工率快速回暖。2025 年 7 月国内铅锭表观需求 65.18 万吨，同比变动-1.7 ...

截至8月22日收盘，万里股份股价报11.56元，较前一交易日下跌1.78%。当日成交量为35302手，成交金 额达0.41亿元。 8月22日，万里股份主力资金净流入109.54万元，占流通市值的0.06%。近五日主力资金累计净流入 99.74万元。 风险提示：以上内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 从半年报数据来看，公司货币资金较上年末减少52.11%，存货较上年末增加6.12%。十大流通股东中， 北京盈动安通科技有限公司为新进股东。 万里股份主营业务为铅酸蓄电池产品的生产和销售。公司最新披露的半年报显示，2025年上半年实现营 业收入2.43亿元，同比下降9.38%；归母净利润亏损1868.21万元，较上年同期亏损幅度扩大。公司经营 活动产生的现金流量净额为-4469.12万元，同比减少1476.18万元。 ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 铅锌日评20250821：区间整理 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/8/21 指标 单位 | | 变动 近期趋势 | 今值 | | | | | | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 | 16,600.00 | -0.45% | | | | | | | | | 沪铅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 | 16,725.00 | -0.59% | | | | | | | | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 | -125.00 | 25.00 | | | | | | | | | 升贴水-上海 元/吨 | -15.00 | 10.00 | | | | | | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 | -39.48 | 2.32 | | | | | | | | | 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 价差 | -67.90 | -1.60 | | | | | | | | | 沪铅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Taxation Administration has exposed two tax evasion cases in the "new three samples" sector, emphasizing that any attempts to undermine tax fairness and disrupt market order through tax fraud will be severely punished [1][2][3] Group 1: Case Summaries - The first case involves Jiangxi Nanshi Lithium Battery Materials Co., Ltd., which fraudulently claimed tax benefits by improperly including non-research personnel's salaries as R&D expenses, resulting in a tax penalty of 5.719 million yuan [1] - The second case involves a tax fraud gang led by Lin Jiayang, which manipulated invoices to falsely claim export tax refunds for 1.49 billion yuan by misrepresenting non-refundable "lead-acid batteries" as refundable "lithium batteries" [2] Group 2: Industry Context - Despite the implementation of tax incentives to support the rapid development of the "new three samples" sector, some entities have engaged in tax fraud, undermining the intended benefits of these policies [3] - The actions of these entities not only harm compliant businesses but also distort market mechanisms and disrupt fair competition, leading to overcapacity in the industry [3] - Experts emphasize the importance of adhering to legal boundaries and focusing on innovation and market expansion rather than exploiting tax compliance loopholes [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the illegal tax evasion activities in the "New Three Samples" sector (new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products), emphasizing the need for strict enforcement of tax regulations to ensure fair competition and promote innovation in the industry [1][2][3] Group 1: Tax Evasion Cases - Case 1 involved a tax fraud scheme led by Lin Jiayang, where a group manipulated 11 companies to export non-refundable "lead-acid batteries" as refundable "lithium batteries," resulting in a fraudulent claim of 149 million yuan in export tax refunds [1] - Case 2 involved Jiangxi Nanshi Lithium Battery New Materials Co., which improperly included 6.6822 million yuan of non-research personnel salaries in R&D expenses to claim tax deductions, leading to a total penalty of 5.719 million yuan [2] Group 2: Impact on Industry - The illegal tax activities undermine the original intent of tax incentives aimed at fostering innovation and disrupt the fair tax environment, contributing to chaotic competition and harming the unified national market [2] - Some companies are misusing tax benefits to engage in price-cutting competition, distorting market mechanisms and disrupting fair competition [2] Group 3: Expert Opinions - Experts emphasize that tax incentives should be used to enhance R&D and product quality, and companies should focus on legal compliance rather than exploiting loopholes [3] - The enforcement of tax laws in the "New Three Samples" sector is crucial for creating a fair tax environment, enhancing industry competitiveness, and curbing chaotic competition [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights recent tax fraud cases in the "new three items" sector (electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products), emphasizing the misuse of tax incentives and the negative impact on fair market competition and industry development [2][4]. Group 1: Tax Fraud Cases - A tax fraud case involving a gang led by Lin Jiayang was uncovered, with fraudulent tax claims exceeding 149 million yuan (approximately 21 million USD) through the manipulation of invoices for lithium batteries [2]. - The Shenzhen tax authority has recovered the fraudulent tax amount and imposed a fine, with Lin Jiayang sentenced to 12 years and 6 months in prison [2][4]. - Another case involved Jiangxi Nan's Lithium Battery New Materials Co., which improperly included non-research personnel salaries in R&D expenses, resulting in a tax penalty of 5.719 million yuan (approximately 800,000 USD) [3][4]. Group 2: Impact on Industry - The tax authority's actions reveal that some companies in the "new three items" sector are exploiting tax incentives, undermining the original intent of these policies to foster innovation and fair competition [4][5]. - The misuse of tax benefits contributes to low-price, inefficient competition and exacerbates overcapacity issues, disrupting the unified national market [4][5]. - Experts argue that such practices hinder high-quality industry development and create obstacles to fair competition, necessitating stricter enforcement of tax laws [4][5].

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年08月17日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铅：供应减少逻辑发酵，支撑价格 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：16600-17000元/吨 ◆ 风险点：东南亚等海外消费崩塌，严重影响中国铅酸蓄电池出口。 再生铅开工率处于历史同期低位 沪铅09合约持仓库存比高位 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 01-01 01-13 01-24 02-04 02-16 02-26 03-10 03-21 04-01 04-12 04-23 05-05 05-16 05-27 06-07 06-18 06-30 07-11 07-22 08-02 08-13 08-26 09-09 09-23 10-08 10-22 11-05 11-19 12-03 12-17 12-31 % 再生铅开工率 2021 ...

Group 1 - The core concept of the article emphasizes the "Two Mountains" theory proposed by Xi Jinping, which integrates ecological protection with economic development, leading to high-quality growth in Zhejiang province [1][11] - Zhejiang's GDP has significantly increased from 1.15 trillion yuan in 2004 to over 9 trillion yuan in 2024, showcasing a successful model of ecological and economic synergy [1][4] - The province has implemented various ecological protection measures, resulting in a 16.7% reduction in total nitrogen and a 36.2% reduction in total phosphorus concentrations in major rivers compared to 2020 [2][4] Group 2 - The ecological compensation mechanism between Zhejiang and Anhui has resulted in Zhejiang paying a total of 2.5 billion yuan to Anhui, reflecting successful inter-provincial cooperation in environmental protection [3] - Zhejiang has achieved a remarkable increase in the proportion of surface water with good quality from 41.9% to 98.6% over 20 years, indicating significant improvements in water quality [4] - The province's average PM2.5 concentration has decreased from 61 micrograms per cubic meter in 2013 to 26.1 micrograms per cubic meter currently, highlighting advancements in air quality [4] Group 3 - Zhejiang has invested over 700 billion yuan in circular economy initiatives, focusing on recycling and resource recovery, which has led to the establishment of several large-scale recycling industries [5] - The province's high-tech industry investment reached 198 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a year-on-year growth of 15.2%, indicating a shift towards high-end, intelligent, and green industrial structures [6] - The total output value of forestry in Lishui's Qingyuan County is projected to reach 9.01 billion yuan in 2024, a 34.2% increase from 2022, demonstrating the economic benefits of ecological initiatives [7] Group 4 - The income disparity between urban and rural residents in Zhejiang has narrowed, with the income ratio decreasing from 2.45 to 1.83 over 20 years, showcasing the impact of ecological development on social equity [8] - The province has made significant strides in improving rural environments through comprehensive waste and water management initiatives, enhancing the quality of life for residents [9] - Urban areas in Zhejiang have seen improvements in green spaces and public satisfaction with the environment, with an ecological satisfaction rate of 88.71 in 2024, reflecting successful urban ecological planning [10]

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | | | | | | 铅锌日评20250812：区间整理 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | | 变动 近期趋势 | 2025/8/12 | | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | 元/吨 | 16,725.00 | | 0.00% | | | | 沪铅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 16,885.00 | | 0.24% | | | | | 沪铅基差 | 元/吨 | -160.00 | | -40.00 | | | | | 升贴水-上海 升贴水-LME 0-3 | 元/吨 美元/吨 | -35.00 -35.50 | | - -4.21 | | | | 价差 | 升贴水-LME 3-15 | 美元/吨 | -61.40 | | 12.20 | | | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | 元/吨 | -50.00 | | 5.00 | | | | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 | 元/吨 | - ...

铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年08月10日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铅：冶炼减产逻辑逐步显现，价格底部抬升 规模再生铅企业持续亏损 ◆ 国内铅供应压力逐步显现，但铅酸蓄电池消费未见改善，预计价格整体表现震荡。从供 应端看，原生铅产量减少，再生铅持续亏损。铅精矿现货进口TC为-60美元/吨，国产矿 加工费为500元/吨，处于历史低位。国内河南部分冶炼企业持续检修，湖南部分企业因 原料紧张而降低产能利用率，都将影响未来原生铅产量。再生铅亏损约400元/吨左右， 较上周亏损收窄，但由于再生亏损时间较长，宁夏等地区再生铅企业将开始减产。 ◆ 铅酸蓄电池消费表现一般，但市场依然对后期消费有所期待。当前铅酸蓄电池消费没有 表现出边际改善，大型电池厂已开始降价向经销商压库存。市场认为后期消费旺季依然 有可能来临，铅酸蓄电池企业开工率 ...