（注：本文为原创分析，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。数据支持：长江有色金属网 www.ccmn.cn电话： 0592-5668838） ccmn铅市分析：今日国内现货铅价小跌，春节后首个交易日，沪铅价格呈现窄幅震荡格局，全天波动 幅度有限，市场多空力量处于高度均衡状态。这一走势主要受国内外宏观环境的共同影响。海外市场方 面，隔夜美股三大指数全线重挫，避险情绪显著升温，导致资金从工业金属等风险资产中流出；同时美 元指数维持横盘整理，未能为市场提供明确方向指引。国内方面，当日公布的LPR报价维持不变，货币 政策保持稳健中性，使得市场对短期宽松政策的预期降温。整体来看，海外风险偏好回落与国内"稳字 当头"的政策定调相互交织，宏观层面呈现多空因素弱平衡的态势，这直接决定了铅价在节后首日震荡 收平的表现。 春节后铅市场呈现典型的"供应恢复快于需求复苏"的格局。供应端，原生与再生铅冶炼企业复产顺畅， 原料供应平稳，市场流通货源充足。然而，需求端恢复迟缓，下游铅酸蓄电池企业复工节奏偏慢，订单 释放有限，目前仍以消化节前库存为主，仅维持刚需采购。整体市场处于供需双弱、小幅累库的状态， 难以支撑价格形成趋势性突破。从产业链看，上游 ...

雄韬股份 20260205 摘要 请详细介绍公司的铅酸蓄电池业务。 铅酸蓄电池是公司的传统业务，目前公司专注于免维护、高功率铅酸蓄电池， 为算力中心和数据中心提供稳定可靠的后备电源。通过自有研发，公司开发出 体积能量比更高的铅酸蓄电池，以提供更优解决方案。预计该业务营收增长约 为 10%，毛利率在 15%左右，净利率在 4-6%之间。 锂离子电池业务的发展情况如何？ 锂离子电池是公司最核心的业务，主要聚焦于数据中心用锂离子 UPS 电源。自 2017 年起，公司开始布局该领域，并取得先发优势。目前，公司在东南亚市 场占有 50%-60%的份额，并且全球范围内增速接近 40%。2025 年，该项业 务收入约为 4 亿元，今年预计增长超过 40%。截至今年三季度，公司已完成高 增长目标，并全面接触所有下游大客户。 燃料电池方面的发展情况如何？ 燃料电池曾是公司的重点布局方向，但由于国家对氢能支持政策收缩，目前发 展较缓慢。尽管公司在制氢、电极、电堆等方面进行了布局，并投了一些下游 氢能企业，但整体利润贡献较少，每年仍有一定亏损。不过随着政策支持力度 增加，该领域未来可能会有更好的发展前景。 雄韬股份上半年算力/数 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In January 2026, the Shanghai tin futures market rose rapidly under the boost of capital, with the long - term structural improvement in demand and macro - liquidity easing as the main driving forces. The price broke through the historical high and continued to strengthen, and is currently fluctuating widely at a high level [59]. - In 2026, the tight supply of tin ore will gradually ease, showing a pattern of tight supply in the first half and loose in the second half. The operating rate of smelters will improve after the holiday. The processing fee, which has been at a low level, increased in January and has room for further growth. However, the secondary tin smelting industry still faces problems such as an inefficient waste recycling system and uncertain recycling policies [59]. - In terms of demand, the tin solder sector, which performed well in 2025, is expected to continue its good growth trend in 2026, benefiting from the rapid development of the semiconductor industry due to computing power demand. In addition, the external demand in the traditional tin - plated sheet field is expanding, offsetting some of the negative impact of the decline in domestic demand. The future development of Sino - US trade frictions remains the biggest uncertainty [59]. - In 2026, the global interest - rate cut cycle will continue, and the non - ferrous metal sector will cyclically improve. The supply side is likely to gradually loosen, while the downstream demand also has some bright spots. The supply and demand of tin are likely to remain in a tight - balanced situation. It is expected that tin prices will remain strong in 2026, with the Shanghai tin futures price mainly ranging between 350,000 - 450,000 and the LME tin price mainly between 45,000 - 60,000 [59]. Summary by Directory Part I: Market Review and Macroeconomic Impact - **Market Review**: In January 2026, the Shanghai tin futures market accelerated its upward rush, and the overall center of gravity shifted significantly. The main driving forces were the long - term structural improvement in demand and macro - liquidity easing, while the impact of the current fundamentals was relatively weak [8]. - **Macroeconomic Situation**: Geopolitical situations are complex and changeable. The EU is considering imposing tariffs on US goods worth 93 billion euros and restricting US companies from entering the EU market. The US will impose a 10% tariff on goods imported from eight European countries starting February 1, 2026, and the tariff rate will increase to 25% starting June 1. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in January, and the candidate for the new Fed chair is undetermined. Since January, the US dollar index first rose and then fell, putting pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector [11]. Part II: Tin Supply - Side Analysis - **Tin Ore Supply**: China's tin ore production has been declining in recent years due to over - exploitation, low - grade reserves, and limited new resource discoveries. In 2025, the production of tin concentrates in China showed a slight increase. In December 2025, the import volume of tin concentrates in China increased significantly month - on - month. With the gradual increase in tin ore exports from the Wa State in Myanmar, the import volume is expected to increase in 2026 [17]. - **Refined Tin Production**: In 2025, the price of tin concentrates showed an upward trend, and the processing fee was weak. In 2026, with a slight improvement in ore supply, the processing fee was raised. In December 2025, the output of refined tin by domestic sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. It is expected that in 2026, the supply growth rate of refined tin will be slightly higher than that in 2025, but the output in January may decrease month - on - month [20]. - **Refined Tin Import and Export**: In 2026, there is a trend of opening the refined tin import window. In December 2025, both imports and exports of refined tin increased. In 2025, China's net exports of refined tin were nearly 3,500 tons [23]. Part III: Tin Demand - Side Analysis - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: In 2024, China's tin - plated sheet production increased steadily. However, in 2025, due to the substitution of chrome - plated sheets and the decline in domestic demand, the production decreased significantly. In 2025, the export of tin - plated sheets increased, but the future export situation is affected by the Sino - US trade war [29]. - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The production of lead - acid batteries has been growing in recent years, but the growth rate has slowed down. In 2025, the export of lead - acid batteries decreased year - on - year due to the impact of the trade war [30]. - **Electronic Products**: The growth cycle of electronic products is approaching the end. In 2025, the production growth rate of electronic products turned negative. It is expected that the production and sales of computers and mobile phones will decline in 2026 [35]. - **Integrated Circuits**: Since 2024, China's integrated circuit production has increased significantly. With the recovery of the global semiconductor industry, it is expected that the production and sales of integrated circuits will continue to grow rapidly in the medium and long term [36]. - **PVC and Glass**: The production of PVC has been increasing, while the production of glass has been decreasing. Each ton of glass consumes about 22 grams of tin [41]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: The photovoltaic industry is transforming from a high - speed development stage. In 2025, there was a rush to install photovoltaic capacity. In 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and the global new photovoltaic installation is expected to reach 665GW. The new tin demand in the global photovoltaic industry is expected to reach 43,000 tons, and about 20,000 tons in China [44]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed down. It is expected that the growth rate in 2026 will be between 15% - 20% [48]. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance**: As of December 1, 2025, the combined inventory of tin in the two major exchanges was at a relatively high - middle level. The global tin market has been in a supply - shortage situation for most months since 2018. In 2025 and 2026, the supply and demand are expected to remain in a tight - balanced situation [51][55]. - **Seasonal Analysis**: Historically, tin prices are weakest in June, and the probability of decline is high in March and October. The probability of increase is high in January, April, July, and December, and the increase is relatively significant. The probability of decline in August is slightly higher than that of increase, while the probability of increase in November is higher [57]. - **Related Stocks**: The stocks of related tin industries have shown significant increases in both monthly and annual terms, such as Tin Industry Co., Ltd., Xingye Co., Ltd., etc. [58]

此外，经审查，四川红宇新材料科技有限公司已于2024年1月主动停止违法行为并积极完成了整改，无 直接证据证明该公司交由邓某武非法处置的180个废铅蓄电池对环境造成了明显损害，对该公司拟处罚 款与该公司违法行为的情节以及社会危害程度不符。该公司请求减轻行政处罚的意见，攀枝花市生态环 境局予以采纳。 依据《中华人民共和国固体废物污染环境防治法》(2020修订版)第一百一十二条规定的处罚幅度,结合司 法实践，综合考量该公司上述违法行为的事实、性质、情节及社会危害程度，攀枝花市生态环境局决定 对四川红宇新材料科技有限公司作出如下行政处罚: 四川攀枝花市一公司将属于危废的废旧铅蓄电池交给不具备危险废物处置资质的废品收购人员进行处 置，涉事公司因违反固体废物污染环境防治法被罚款人民币20万元并没收违法所得9700元。 攀枝花市政府网站2026年1月28日公布的行政处罚决定书显示，攀枝花市生态环境局2025年8月18日对四 川红宇新材料科技有限公司进行了调查。调查发现，2018年3月至2024年8月，四川红宇新材料科技有限 公司合计采购209个铅蓄电池供厂区内平板电车使用。该公司在2019年3月至2023年12月期间累计将 ...

今日沪期铅走势：今日沪期铅小幅下跌，沪铅主力合约2602开盘报16930元，高点17015元，低点16865 元，结算价16930元，收盘16915元/吨，跌85元，跌幅0.5%。今日沪铅2602主力合约成交量3326手，持 仓量8109手减少709手。伦铅最新价报2025.5美元，跌2.5美元。 铅价为何逆市走弱？核心在于"供强需弱"与"节前效应"的共振冲击。供应端，原生铅与再生铅开工率双 双高企，叠加进口窗口开启，市场供应压力持续加大。与此同时，需求端却提前"入冬"：占消费大头的 铅酸蓄电池行业备货结束，部分企业计划提前放假，导致下游采购几近冰封。产业链利润被严重挤压， 库存压力沿产业链向上传导，行业洗牌加速。不过，龙头企业如豫光金铅凭借全产业链布局与资源综合 回收优势，在行业寒冬中逆势增长，凸显了规模与技术的抗风险能力。 市场交投清淡，价格承压探底，后市静待需求修复。现货市场完全被节前资金回笼逻辑主导，现货报价 （升贴水）持续走弱。下游企业仅按需刚性采购，对高价资源接受度低，成交集中在低价区间。随着春 节临近，北方物流逐步停滞，南方以消化库存为主，市场整体流动性收紧，活跃度降至冰点，加剧了价 格的弱势震 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The weakening US dollar is favorable for the repair of lead price trends. Environmental controls in many domestic regions and the negative profit of secondary lead smelters have led to an increase in smelter shutdowns and holidays, resulting in an expected contraction in supply. Meanwhile, downstream battery enterprises are gradually stockpiling for the Spring Festival, leading to improved demand. Against the backdrop of reduced supply and increased demand, the support for the lower limit of lead prices is strengthened. In the short term, lead prices are expected to maintain a weak and stable oscillatory repair [3][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From January 16th to January 23rd, the SHFE lead price dropped from 17,475 yuan/ton to 17,095 yuan/ton, a decrease of 380 yuan/ton; the LME lead price fell from 2,037.5 dollars/ton to 2,035 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.5 dollars/ton; the SHFE-LME ratio decreased from 8.58 to 8.40, a decrease of 0.18; the SHFE inventory decreased by 7,693 tons to 29,351 tons; the LME inventory increased by 8,825 tons to 215,175 tons; the social inventory increased by 0.2 million tons to 3.45 million tons; the spot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to -140 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main SHFE lead 2603 contract price continued to decline at the beginning of the week, but then stabilized and oscillated after the market sentiment recovered and it found support near the integer level, finally closing at 17,095 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.17%. The LME lead price stopped falling and stabilized, and the contract price stabilized and recovered to 2,035 dollars/ton, with a decline of 0.15%. In the spot market, on January 23rd, the Honglu lead in Shanghai was quoted at 17,140 - 17,210 yuan/ton, with a premium of 50 yuan/ton over the SHFE lead 2603 contract. Downstream enterprises' risk aversion sentiment was relatively alleviated, and some enterprises made rigid purchases, but the transactions were still scattered [5] Industry News - In February 2026, the domestic and international lead concentrate processing fees were 250 yuan/metal ton and -150 dollars/dry ton respectively, with the average values decreasing by 50 yuan/metal ton and -5 dollars/dry ton respectively. - In January 2026, multiple cities in Shandong and Hebei launched heavy pollution emergency responses, affecting the production of some lead smelters. - Pan American Silver Corp. produced 55,900 tons of zinc and 27,000 tons of lead in 2025, and it is expected to produce 58,500 - 62,500 tons of zinc and 30,500 - 32,500 tons of lead in 2026. - The global lead market's supply surplus decreased from 29,200 tons in October to 8,900 tons in November. - In December 2025, the import volume of lead concentrates was 149,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 35.8% and a year-on-year increase of 24.63%; the import volume of silver concentrates was 239,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 32.3% and a year-on-year increase of 89.3%. The export volume of refined lead was 2,767 tons, a month-on-month increase of 141.08% and a year-on-year increase of 270.61%; the cumulative export volume of refined lead and lead products from January to December was 59,440 tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 42.5%. The import volume of refined lead was 8,395 tons, and the import volume of lead alloys was 24,011 tons; the cumulative import volume of refined lead and lead products from January to December was 198,641 tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 10.19%. The export volume of lead-acid batteries was 17.2406 million units, a month-on-month increase of 9.28 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 33.86 percentage points; the cumulative export volume of lead-acid batteries in 2025 was 219 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 12.79 percentage points [8][9] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE-LME ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium/discount, LME lead premium/discount, price difference between primary lead and secondary refined lead, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead concentrate processing fees, electrolytic lead production, secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][11][13]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zai Sheng Technology, produces AGM separators, which are essential materials for valve-regulated lead-acid batteries, widely used in various applications such as light vehicle power batteries, automotive start-stop batteries, and UPS energy storage systems [1] Group 1 - The AGM separator is made from glass microfiber through a netting process, resulting in a uniform, thin, flexible material [1] - AGM separators serve to wrap battery lead plates, isolating them from contact, absorbing electrolytes, and allowing electrons to pass through sulfuric acid [1] - The lead-acid battery market is significant, with applications in light vehicles, automotive start-stop systems, and UPS storage [1]

Group 1 - The company, Wanli Co., expects to report a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately -45 million yuan for 2025, compared to a loss of about 39.41 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is projected to be a loss of about 38.77 million yuan, with earnings per share estimated at a loss of 0.26 yuan [1] - The primary reason for the performance change is the decline in the company's main business revenue due to intense market competition, although management has taken measures to control operating costs, resulting in a reduced loss in the lead-acid battery business compared to last year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Wanli Co., Ltd. (600847.SH) expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately -45 million yuan for 2025, indicating ongoing financial challenges due to market competition and increased operational costs [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, of around -44.5 million yuan for 2025 [1] - The main business revenue has decreased compared to the same period last year due to intense market competition [1] Cost Management - Management has implemented various measures to control operating costs, resulting in a reduced loss margin in the lead-acid battery business compared to the previous year [1] Investment in R&D - The company has significantly increased its R&D investment in battery-centric new energy businesses year-on-year, aimed at enhancing long-term competitiveness and facilitating business transformation [1] - However, these investments have led to increased operating costs in the short term, contributing to an overall larger loss compared to the previous year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately -45 million yuan for 2025, with a non-recurring net profit of around -44.5 million yuan [1] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported a net profit of -39.407 million yuan and a non-recurring net profit of -38.7715 million yuan [1] - The overall loss has widened due to increased R&D investment in the new energy business, despite a reduction in losses from the lead-acid battery segment [1] Market Conditions - The decline in main operating revenue is attributed to market competition [1]