Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For lead, after a significant increase in lead prices, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. Meanwhile, refinery profits are good, the import window is open, and the tight supply situation has improved. There is significant pressure on the upside of lead prices, and there is a risk of a sharp decline in lead prices. For zinc, the macro - sentiment has improved, and the domestic mine supply pattern has tightened. The domestic TC is likely to fall rather than rise, and LME zinc is in a deep backwardation structure, providing some support for zinc prices. However, considering the weak domestic end - market, there may be a lack of continuous upward momentum for zinc prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.14% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract fell by 0.94% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 30.04%, the open interest decreased by 8.01%, and the trading - to - open - interest ratio decreased by 23.95%. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.21%. The closing price of LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic trading) increased by 0.07%, and the Shanghai - to - London lead price ratio decreased by 1.02% [1]. - **Industry News**: A large recycled lead refinery in North China has shut down its blast furnace for maintenance, with the resumption date undetermined, affecting refined lead production by 300 - 400 tons per day. A large lead - acid battery enterprise in Central China plans to reduce or halt production from October 28 to November 2, 2025, for 7 days due to rising raw material prices, sufficient product inventory, and high risks at high lead prices [1]. - **Fundamentals and Strategy**: The import of lead concentrates is not expected to increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the supply of recycled lead has increased. The terminal market has improved, and the demand for lead - acid battery enterprises has increased. The trading strategy is to hold existing short positions [1]. Zinc Market - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.27% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract decreased by 0.25% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 7.23%, the open interest decreased by 0.41%, and the trading - to - open - interest ratio increased by 7.66%. The LME zinc inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 3.88%. The closing price of LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic trading) decreased by 0.07%, and the Shanghai - to - London zinc price ratio decreased by 0.18% [1]. - **Industry News**: In September 2025, Chile exported 0.13 million tons of zinc concentrates, and the cumulative export volume from January to September was 4.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.5%. In August 2025, Peru exported 189,600 physical tons of zinc concentrates, a month - on - month decrease of 15%, and the cumulative export volume from January to August was 1.4328 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17%. In August 2025, Bolivia produced 37,400 metal tons of zinc concentrates, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%, and the cumulative production from January to August was 333,200 metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. On October 27, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $212.89 per ton, and the open interest decreased by 1,274 lots to 222,244 lots [1]. - **Fundamentals and Strategy**: Refineries have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc concentrate processing fees have continued to rise. Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees are likely to decline in October. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, with an expected monthly output of around 600,000 tons. The demand has not improved significantly, and the zinc ingot export window may open. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1].