Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the resumption of production at primary lead smelters, the gradual resumption of secondary lead production, and the arrival of some crude lead, the supply side shows a recovery trend. However, downstream battery companies have completed their stockpiling, and the inventory reduction will slow down. There is a supply - demand mismatch during the National Day holiday, and there is an expectation of inventory increase, which will put pressure on lead prices. With fewer trading days this week and cautious pre - holiday funds, it is expected that lead prices will fluctuate weakly at high levels [3][7] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Transaction Data - From September 19th to September 26th, the SHFE lead price dropped from 17,150 yuan/ton to 17,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the LME lead price dropped from 2,003 dollars/ton to 2,001.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.5 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio dropped from 8.56 to 8.55; the SHFE inventory decreased by 8,123 tons to 49,209 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 875 tons to 219,425 tons; the social inventory decreased by 0.84 million tons to 4.64 million tons; the spot premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to - 130 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main SHFE lead contract PB2511 fluctuated at a high level, closing at 17,110 yuan/ton with a weekly decline of 0.23%. The LME lead first declined and then rose, maintaining a sideways oscillation, closing at 2,001.5 dollars/ton with a weekly decline of 0.07%. In the spot market, near the National Day holiday, the supply of circulating goods was limited. Downstream enterprises purchased on demand, and most lead battery companies had completed pre - holiday stockpiling and only maintained rigid procurement. The inventory decreased significantly but the downward trend will slow down later [5][6] Industry News - In October, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 400 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/metal ton, and the average imported lead concentrate processing fee was - 115 dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 25 dollars/dry ton. A large smelter in Henan resumed production on September 26th. In August, the import volume of zinc ore and its concentrates decreased by 6.51% month - on - month and increased by 30.87% year - on - year; the import volume of refined zinc increased by 43.3% month - on - month and decreased by 3.6% year - on - year; the export volume of galvanized sheets decreased by 8.35% month - on - month and increased by 1.71% year - on - year [8] Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory, lead premium, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, electrolytic lead production, secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][11][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The global lead market shows a large visible inventory pressure, and the expected increase in supply from new capacity will suppress lead prices. However, the cost support is relatively stable, and the potential production cut expectation caused by refinery losses also provides a bottom - support for lead prices. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate widely in August, and its upside space depends on the actual improvement in the consumption end [2][72][73]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Lead Market Review - In July, the main contract price of Shanghai lead showed a volatile decline. Affected by factors such as the passing of the US bill, good domestic PMI data, and the approaching consumption peak season at the beginning of the month, the lead price was firm. In the middle of the month, due to factors like inventory increase and less - than - expected downstream consumption improvement, the lead price adjusted. After the news of some Middle - Eastern countries imposing additional tariffs on lead - battery exports, the lead price decline was magnified. Finally, it closed at 16,735 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 2.7%. The London lead price first declined and then rose, closing at 1,969.5 US dollars/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 3.93% [7]. 2. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: From January to May 2025, the global cumulative lead concentrate production was 1.8111 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Overseas mine production showed different year - on - year changes, indicating a slow recovery rhythm. In China, from January to June, the cumulative lead concentrate production was 787,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13%. It is expected that the global lead concentrate supply will continue to recover in the second half of the year, with an expected overseas increase of 100,000 tons and a domestic increase of about 70,000 tons, and the global lead mine production growth rate will be 2.3% to 4620,000 tons [10][11]. - **Lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and the demand for silver concentrate imports is increasing**: In August, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 500 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month decrease of 100 yuan/metal ton; the import processing fee was - 60 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15 US dollars/dry ton. The import of lead concentrate maintained a loss, but the monthly import volume remained at a relatively high level. In June, the silver concentrate import volume was 126,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to June was 847,000 tons. With the continuous high price of by - product silver, the import demand remained high [18][20]. 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is slow**: From January to May 2025, the global cumulative refined lead production was 5.5066 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. It is predicted that the global refined lead production in 2025 will be 13.272 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [22]. - **Refineries are resuming production, and the electrolytic lead production in August is expected to increase month - on - month**: In July, the electrolytic lead production was 321,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. It is expected that the production in August will be 338,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.13% [26]. - **The price of waste batteries remains high, and new projects contribute to the increase in production**: In July, the price of waste batteries fluctuated slightly. It is expected that the price will remain firm in August. In July, the production of recycled refined lead was 258,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.96%. It is expected that the production in August will be 273,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.16% [32][33]. 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: From January to May 2025, the global cumulative refined lead consumption was 5.4887 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.69%. It is expected that the global refined lead demand in 2025 will increase by 1.5% to 13.19 million tons, and the global refined lead supply will exceed demand by 82,000 tons [44]. - **Lead - battery enters the traditional consumption peak season, and the sector shows differentiation**: In July, the consumption of electric bicycle batteries was good, while the consumption of automobile starting batteries was mixed. In August, it is expected that the battery consumption will continue to be differentiated [48]. - **The Shanghai - London ratio is not conducive to lead ingot and battery exports, and imports supplement raw material ratios**: In June, the refined lead export volume decreased month - on - month, and the import volume increased year - on - year. The high Shanghai - London ratio is not conducive to lead ingot exports, and the battery export is also affected by factors such as tariff increases [49][50]. - **Policy guidance improves the marginal consumption prospects of lead - batteries**: In the automobile sector, the battery replacement demand is stable, and the new - car demand is expected to continue to be good. In the electric bicycle sector, the replacement demand is large, and policies such as trade - in and new national standards will stimulate consumption. In the energy - storage sector, the demand for lead - batteries is expected to grow [58][60][62]. 2.4 Global Visible Inventory is Rising - In July, the global visible lead inventory was under pressure. The LME inventory remained high, and the domestic lead ingot inventory increased. If the consumption in August does not improve significantly, the inventory may continue to rise [67]. 3. Summary and Future Outlook - The supply of primary lead is expected to increase in August, but the refinery profit is compressed. The supply of recycled lead is expected to be stable with a slight increase, but there is a possibility of unexpected production cuts. The demand is differentiated, and the traditional consumption peak season is slightly lower than expected. The lead price is expected to fluctuate widely in August, and its upside depends on the consumption improvement [72][73].