Core Viewpoint - The COMEX prices of gold, silver, and copper are rising, with expectations of a copper shortage by 2026 due to supply constraints and geopolitical factors [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 6, 2026, the COMEX prices for gold, silver, and copper are strengthening, with the non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) increasing by 1.19% [1] - Notable stock performances include Hunan Gold hitting the upper limit, Guocheng Mining rising by 5.98%, and other companies like Yahua Group and Xiamen Tungsten also seeing gains [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The copper market is expected to face a widening gap, with a projected global refined copper surplus shrinking to 170,000 tons [1] - If China engages in stockpiling similar to 2020, alongside continuous inflow of U.S. copper inventories, a shift to a global refined copper shortage is anticipated, which would drive copper prices up [1] Group 3: Economic and Policy Influences - Recent declines in copper prices are attributed to the nomination of Kevin Walsh, a "hawkish" candidate for the Federal Reserve chair by Trump, although market reactions may be exaggerated [1] - The feasibility of the Fed's balance sheet reduction is questioned due to insufficient bank reserves and the need for fiscal expansion, with expectations of two rate cuts in 2026 [1] - Geopolitical tensions are influencing the demand for critical minerals, leading to an increase in the global copper gap and a potential rise in copper prices due to "security premiums" [1] Group 4: ETF Focus - The non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) tracks the CSI sub-index for the non-ferrous metal industry, focusing on gold, copper, aluminum, rare earths, and tungsten, with a combined gold, copper, and aluminum content of 61.29%, the highest in the market [2]