铜价回归基本面定价
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分析人士:铜市逐步回归基本面定价
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-08-06 00:46
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant shift in the international copper trading logic due to changes in U.S. tariff policies, particularly the exemption of certain copper imports from tariffs, which has led to a sharp decline in COMEX copper prices [1][2][3] - Following the announcement of the tariff policy, COMEX copper prices dropped over 18%, while previously, the anticipation of tariffs had caused a 17% increase in prices on July 9 [1][2] - The U.S. copper imports surged by 129% year-on-year in the first half of the year, reaching 860,000 tons, driven by expectations of tariffs, but this momentum is expected to weaken post-policy implementation [2][3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the narrowing price gap between COMEX and LME copper prices is likely to occur, primarily through a significant drop in COMEX prices, while LME prices remain relatively stable [2][3] - The current market is characterized by weak supply and demand dynamics, with domestic refined copper facing oversupply, and the expectation of lower copper prices due to reduced demand from end-users [4][5] - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of cooling, with U.S. manufacturing PMI and non-farm employment data indicating potential economic slowdown, which may further pressure copper prices [4][5]