每经AI快讯，周五(1月9日)，伦敦基本金属集体收涨，LME期铜涨2.07%报12965.5美元/吨，周涨 3.98%；LME期锌涨0.57%报3149美元/吨，周涨0.7%；LME期镍涨3.72%报17700美元/吨，周涨5.23%； LME期铝涨1.98%报3149美元/吨，周涨4.43%；LME期锡涨4.64%报45700美元/吨，周涨13.09%；LME 期铅涨1.49%报2046.5美元/吨，周涨1.99%。 ...

在铜价从2025年11月底不足11,000美元/吨一路拉升、并于1月6日触及13,387.50美元/吨的历史高位后，这家华 尔街金融巨头不得不重新校准短期路径：高盛将2026年上半年铜价预测从11,525美元/吨显著上调至12,750美 元/吨，理由是"稀缺溢价"与囤货性质正在被市场重新定价——尤其是美国以外地区(ex-US)库存覆盖不足所带 来的大宗商品市场紧张感。然而，高盛同时强调称，13,000美元/吨以上难以长期维持，并维持其2026年四季 度11,200美元/吨的LME铜价谨慎看跌预测不变。 全球铜价基准——LME期铜价格，似乎已开始高位震荡态势，伦敦金属交易所(LME)三个月期铜价格在周四 一度下跌1.5%至每吨12702美元。该合约曾在本周二触及每吨13,387.50美元的历史高点。面对从11月到206年1 月6日高达30%的这一涨势，高盛的分析师们认为，LME铜期货交易价格已经超出了其认为的约11,400美元/ 吨的公允基本面水平。 智通财经APP获悉，当大宗商品市场还在为铜价屡创历史新高点位欢呼时，华尔街金融巨头高盛先给多头递 上了一颗"糖"，紧接着又抛出一盆"冷水"。在高盛看来，铜价短期被 ...

每经AI快讯，当地时间1月8日，伦敦基本金属多数下跌，LME期铝涨0.15%报3088.0美元/吨，LME期锌 跌0.92%报3131.0美元/吨，LME期铜跌1.27%报12702.0美元/吨，LME期铅跌2.04%报2016.5美元/吨， LME期锡跌2.18%报43675.0美元/吨，LME期镍跌3.34%报17065.0美元/吨。 ...

每经AI快讯，当地时间1月7日，伦敦基本金属多数下跌，LME期锡涨0.34%报44650.0美元/吨，LME期 铅跌0.60%报2058.5美元/吨，LME期铝跌1.60%报3083.5美元/吨，LME期锌跌2.63%报3160.0美元/吨， LME期铜跌2.93%报12866.0美元/吨，LME期镍跌4.21%报17655.0美元/吨。 ...

⑧伦敦基本金属全线上涨，LME期镍涨8.39%报18430.0美元/吨，LME期锡涨4.79%报44500.0美元/吨， LME期铅涨2.35%报2071.0美元/吨，LME期铜涨2.02%报13254.5美元/吨，LME期锌涨1.58%报3245.5美 元/吨，LME期铝涨1.56%报3133.5美元/吨； ⑨美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨1.04个基点报3.463%，3年期美债收益率涨0.84个基点报 3.528%，5年期美债收益率涨0.69个基点报3.713%，10年期美债收益率涨0.79个基点报4.173%，30年期 美债收益率涨0.3个基点报4.863%； ⑩欧债收益率集体下跌，英国10年期国债收益率跌2.5个基点报4.479%，法国10年期国债收益率跌1.9个 基点报3.552%，德国10年期国债收益率跌2.8个基点报2.840%，意大利10年期国债收益率跌3.5个基点报 3.531%，西班牙10年期国债收益率跌2.9个基点报3.269%。 ④欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨，德国DAX指数涨0.27%报24936.46点，法国CAC40指数涨0.32%报 8237.43点，英国富时100指数涨1 ...

每经AI快讯，LME期铜收涨246美元，报13238美元/吨。LME期铝收涨44美元，报3129美元/吨。LME期 锌收涨56美元，报3251美元/吨。LME期铅收涨52美元，报2076美元/吨。LME期镍收涨1521美元，报 18524美元/吨。LME期锡收涨2060美元，报44526美元/吨。LME期钴收涨1455美元，报56290美元/吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with the unchanged policy support for the capital market, the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [2][3]. - For treasury bonds, the improvement of market expectations for the economy may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [4][6]. - For precious metals, there may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [7][8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and market sentiment, with different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to slow down in their upward trend; aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong; zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term; lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have bottomed out in the short term; tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment; and the prices of some non - ferrous metal products such as stainless steel and casting aluminum alloy also have their own trends [10][11][13] [16][17][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations; glass prices may have some upward potential; and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [32][33][35]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be observed; the valuation of heavy - oil products in crude oil is expected to increase; methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies; and the trends of pure benzene, styrene, and other products are also affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [49][50][55]. - For agricultural products, the short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse; egg prices have limited upside and downside space; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate; the current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic; sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest; and cotton prices are recommended to go long on dips after a correction [78][79][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: The CSRC will strengthen the coordination of administrative, criminal, and civil actions to combat financial fraud. Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks, expecting a 15% - 20% annual increase in 2026 and 2027. The basis ratios of stock - index futures are provided [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with policy support, the medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of Treasury bond futures contracts have different changes. The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced policies for Yangtze River protection projects. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4688 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver have increased. Weak US manufacturing PMI data and geopolitical issues have strengthened the expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy, leading to a short - term increase in precious - metal prices [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of LME copper has reached 13,000 US dollars for the first time. The price of domestic copper has continued to be strong, with changes in inventory and basis [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down, with support from supply - side factors and pressure from demand - side factors [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic and international aluminum have accelerated their upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by factors such as supply - side disturbances and the high prices of precious metals and copper [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The prices of zinc futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and supply - demand relationships [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The prices of lead futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and market sentiment [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel has oscillated, with changes in spot premiums and cost factors [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared, and it is recommended to observe in the short term [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin has increased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and it is recommended to observe [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium has increased, with changes in futures prices and inventory [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium are expected to improve, but there are concerns about demand if prices remain high. It is recommended to observe or take a light - position attempt [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe. If there is no actual production - reduction action, short positions can be considered on rallies [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to consider going long on dips and pay attention to the implementation of policies [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has accelerated its upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by cost and supply - side factors [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass has decreased, and the price of soda ash has decreased. There are changes in inventory and basis [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass prices may have some upward potential, and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are affected by factors such as market sentiment, cost, and supply - side disturbances [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon has decreased, and the price of polysilicon has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [43][46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment [44][47]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber has oscillated and increased, with different views from bulls and bears [49][50]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil has decreased, and the prices of refined - oil products have also changed, with changes in inventory [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The valuation of heavy - oil products is expected to increase [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol have changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips [57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea have changed, with a certain basis [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have changed, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and basis [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is considered that the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair, and it is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC has decreased, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory [62][63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies before significant production cuts in the industry [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol needs to be improved through increased production cuts, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of para - xylene has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [74][75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - surplus pattern of PP may change in the first quarter of next year, and the price may bottom out [76]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The prices of live pigs in different regions have changed, with different supply and demand situations in the north and south [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts [79]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The prices of eggs have changed, with stable supply and different digestion speeds in the terminal market [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices have limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to short on rallies [81][82]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have changed, with changes in spot prices and inventory [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate, affected by factors such as import costs and inventory [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of oils and fats futures have decreased, with changes in spot prices and inventory [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic. The prices are not far from the bottom range [87][88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar futures has increased, with changes in spot prices and production data in different regions [89][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest, and the short - term downside space of domestic sugar prices is limited [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton futures has changed, with changes in spot prices, supply, demand, and inventory [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on cotton after a correction, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and policy expectations [93].

【大河财立方消息】①美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨1.23%报48977.18点，再创历史新高，标普500指 数涨0.64%报6902.05点，纳指涨0.69%报23395.82点； ②科技股涨跌互现，特斯拉涨超3%，亚马逊涨近3%，脸书涨超1%，谷歌涨0.44%，苹果跌超1%，英伟 达跌0.39%，微软跌0.02%； ⑨美债收益率集体下跌，2年期美债收益率跌2.46个基点报3.449%，3年期美债收益率跌2.82个基点报 3.519%，5年期美债收益率跌4.33个基点报3.701%，10年期美债收益率跌3.14个基点报4.159%，30年期 美债收益率跌2.26个基点报4.850%； ⑩欧债收益率集体下跌，英国10年期国债收益率跌3个基点报4.505%，法国10年期国债收益率跌3.9个基 点报3.571%，德国10年期国债收益率跌3个基点报2.868%，意大利10年期国债收益率跌4.4个基点报 3.566%，西班牙10年期国债收益率跌3.9个基点报3.298%。 ③热门中概股多数上涨，脑再生涨超31%，比特小鹿涨逾8%，贝壳涨超6%，老虎证券涨逾6%，再鼎医 药涨超4%，哔哩哔哩涨逾3%。跌幅方面，硕迪生物跌 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，当地时间1月5日，伦敦基本金属全线上涨，LME期锡涨5.32%报42560.0美元/吨，LME期 铜涨4.96%报13087.5美元/吨，LME期镍涨2.79%报17290.0美元/吨，LME期锌涨2.59%报3208.0美元/ 吨，LME期铝涨2.47%报3090.0美元/吨，LME期铅涨1.15%报2029.5美元/吨。 ...

2025年，全球关税摩擦愈演愈烈，美联储年内三度降息累计75个基点，人工智能狂潮席卷全球，地缘紧 张局势加剧，金融市场波动剧烈。 美国股市三大股指均实现两位数的涨幅，连续第三年上涨；美元去年下跌逾9%，录得2017年以来最大年 跌幅；美国10年期收益率自2020年以来首次出现年度下跌，而两年期收益率则有望创下2020年以来的最 大年度跌幅。 大宗商品方面，黄金创下46年来最大年度涨幅，创下有史以来最强劲的年度表现，白银和铂金年度表现 更是创下纪录；LME期铜创下16年来最大年度涨幅，年底再创纪录新高；CBOT大豆录得三年来首个年度 涨幅，由于中国重返美国市场；油价去年大跌近20%，创2020年以来最大年度跌幅。追踪全球大宗商品走 势的CRB指数去年上涨0.69%。 **贵金属成为最大赢家** **美国股市录得两位数涨幅** 美国股市三大股指2025年录得强劲年度涨幅，标普500指数、道琼斯工业指数和纳斯达克指数今年均实现 两位数的涨幅。这标志着三大股指连续第三年上涨，上一次出现这种情况是在2019-2021年。这一年的过 山车式行情主要由特朗普总统的关税不确定性以及围绕人工智能（AI）重点股票的亢奋情绪主导。 ...