交易所数据显示，截至11月21日，COMEX铜库存达到402,876短吨，超过了2003年1月创下的399,458短吨的前 纪录，并且今年库存量已增长了三倍。这一库存规模已超过LME和上海期货交易所库存总和，反映全球铜供应 链正因政策预期与套利行为发生显著重构。 但，昨晚旧金山联储主席Daly表示支持美联储在下月会议上降息，结合此前纽约联储主席也表态支持降息，这 使得市场对12月降息概率陡升，短暂缓解了市场对流动性问题的担忧。 后市来看，一德期货分析称，铜精矿供应仍偏紧，增速落后于精铜产量/消费增速。美联储官员表态支持12月 降息，CME数据显示美联储12月降息概率升至81%。市场受到提振，铜价小幅企稳。短期铜价延续高位震荡格 局，区间应对。关注海内外库存变化。分析师则认为，铜价在从历史高位回落后，目前徘徊在较高水平。由于 缺乏新的宏观或基本面催化剂，无论是向上还是向下突破都缺乏动力。 周一，由于美国COMEX铜库存创历史新高，市场总体观望气氛浓厚，芝加哥商品交易所(COMEX)期铜下跌。 今日，在美联储"放鸽"助推下，COMEX期铜有所反弹，小幅上涨0.19%。 ...

Group 1: Market Changes and Impacts - The U.S. government announced that it will not impose tariffs on imported refined copper and other input materials, leading to a significant drop in COMEX copper prices by over 18% [1][2] - Following the tariff announcement, the price difference between COMEX and LME copper narrowed from $2,700/ton to below $300/ton, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2] - The U.S. copper imports surged by 129% year-on-year in the first half of the year, reaching 860,000 tons, which contributed to the accumulation of COMEX copper inventories [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current copper market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with domestic refined copper production increasing due to high sulfuric acid prices, while downstream demand remains subdued [4] - The expectation of a supply surplus in the second half of the year suggests that copper prices will face downward pressure, although lower prices may stimulate buying from downstream consumers [5] - The recent decline in U.S. manufacturing PMI and non-farm employment data has raised concerns about a potential economic recession, which could negatively impact copper prices in the short term [4][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant shift in the international copper trading logic due to changes in U.S. tariff policies, particularly the exemption of certain copper imports from tariffs, which has led to a sharp decline in COMEX copper prices [1][2][3] - Following the announcement of the tariff policy, COMEX copper prices dropped over 18%, while previously, the anticipation of tariffs had caused a 17% increase in prices on July 9 [1][2] - The U.S. copper imports surged by 129% year-on-year in the first half of the year, reaching 860,000 tons, driven by expectations of tariffs, but this momentum is expected to weaken post-policy implementation [2][3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the narrowing price gap between COMEX and LME copper prices is likely to occur, primarily through a significant drop in COMEX prices, while LME prices remain relatively stable [2][3] - The current market is characterized by weak supply and demand dynamics, with domestic refined copper facing oversupply, and the expectation of lower copper prices due to reduced demand from end-users [4][5] - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of cooling, with U.S. manufacturing PMI and non-farm employment data indicating potential economic slowdown, which may further pressure copper prices [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected exemption of import tariffs on cathode copper by Trump has led to a significant drop in COMEX copper prices, marking a historic single-day decline of 22% [1] Group 1: Market Impact - COMEX copper experienced a dramatic decline, with a 22% drop in a single day, referred to as "Black Thursday" [1] - A large volume of physical copper is reportedly "trapped" in the United States due to the tariff exemption [1] Group 2: Future Implications - There is speculation about whether the excess copper will be redirected to LME warehouses in the near future [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that copper futures are trading at a premium of $8 per ton compared to COMEX copper [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that London copper futures are trading at a premium of $8 per ton compared to COMEX copper [1]

Core Viewpoint - The premium of COMEX copper over London copper has decreased to $17 per ton, influenced by Trump's latest tariff policy which excludes refined copper from tariffs [1] Group 1 - COMEX copper is currently trading at a premium of $17 per ton compared to London copper [1] - Trump's recent tariff policy has specifically excluded refined copper from the list of products subject to tariffs [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. government announced a 50% tariff on certain imported copper products, effective August 1, which includes semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives [1][2] - Following the announcement, the Comex copper futures price dropped over 18%, closing at $4.630 per pound, marking the largest single-day decline in history [1][2] - The initial market expectation was for a broader tariff covering the entire copper supply chain, but the announcement limited the tariffs to specific products, excluding key raw materials like copper ore and cathodes [1][2] Group 2 - The copper input materials such as copper ore, concentrates, and scrap are not subject to the tariffs under the Section 232 provisions [2] - The announcement negatively impacted U.S. copper producers, with Freeport-McMoRan Inc. shares falling approximately 10% and Southern Copper shares declining over 6% [2] - Prior to the announcement, U.S. copper prices were about 28% higher than the benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange [2]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS suggest that gold is one of the best investment options following the recent tariff announcements by the Trump administration [1] - Morgan Stanley's analysts expect a weaker dollar to benefit commodities and rising US inflation to attract funds into precious metals, with Chinese policies potentially acting as a bullish factor [1][2] - Morgan Stanley has raised its fourth-quarter gold price target to $3,800 per ounce, citing support from central bank and investment demand, a weaker dollar, ETF inflows, and ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs reaffirms its forecast that gold prices will reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of the year and rise to $4,000 by mid-2026, supported by central bank and ETF inflows [3][4] - UBS recommends buying gold as a hedge against policy risks, despite viewing the recent tariff increases as a negotiation tactic [4] - UBS analysts predict that the effective US tariff rate will stabilize around 15%, which is less than the recently announced rates of 30% to 35%, supporting continued gains in the S&P 500 [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that as of the week ending July 8, the net long positions of speculators in COMEX copper have increased by 4,743 contracts, reaching a total of 36,287 contracts [1]