新华财经北京1月8日电 2025年金属毫无疑问是商品市场最亮眼的板块，自11月份下旬开始虽然黄金在 经历了三年的上涨之后，涨势有所收敛，但在黄金"熄火"后，在供应偏紧、资源争夺和投资需求等共同 作用下，商品属性较强的白银和铜开启了加速上涨之路。 尤其在2025年的最后一个月内，COMEX期铜连续第五个月实现月线上涨，月度涨幅扩大至近8%； COMEX期银月内更是一度飙升超30%，使得全年的涨幅累计达到约170%。 分析认为，在全球"去美元化"趋势不断强化的背景下，AI人工智能、新能源等新质产业的快速发展，正 在重新定义银、铜等金属的战略价值，这使得"黄金为锚、银铜起舞"的格局在可预见的时间内仍将延 续，金银铜的上涨趋势难以根本扭转。 但也需要留意的是，在经历了2025年的高波动之后，随着宏观和基本面的边际变化、监管机构强化风控 等一系列扰动因素之下，金属市场波动料将有所收敛，调整风险随着价格的攀升同步积聚。 黄金为锚、银铜起舞长期涨势难改 随着2022年俄乌冲突爆发，美元"武器化"开启了全球加速"去美元化"的进程，黄金作为最一般等价物就 开启了重新定价之路。在此后的三年内，金价单边上涨并连续突破3000、40 ...

每经AI快讯，1月5日，COMEX期铜上涨4.1%，至每磅5.87美元，创自7月以来新高。 每经AI快讯，1月5日，COMEX期铜上涨4.1%，至每磅5.87美元，创自7月以来新高。 ...

12月31日（周三），伦敦金属交易所(LME)期铜周三小幅下跌，但预计2025年，期铜料录得自2009年以 来最大年线涨幅，且为基本金属总表现最好者，因供应忧虑和AI繁荣和能源唤醒等引发的需求增长预 期。 作为"万物电气化"的主要受益者之一，由于美国关税的不确定性和对可能限制供应的矿山生产中断的担 忧，铜价今年迄今已飙升逾42%。 三个月期铜最新跌0.49%，报每吨12,497美元。 沪铜主力合约周三收高0.84%，报每吨98,240元，今年累计上涨33.27%。 今年铜价数度突破关键水准，触及纪录新高，主要是受矿山生产中断，比如自由港旗下印尼旗舰 Grasberg铜金矿一度暂停生产，这推动铜价走升。 周三LME三个月期铝上涨0.44%，料录得逾17%的年线涨幅。沪铝主力合约周三收盘上涨2.25%，今年 累计上涨14.65%。 预计镍价将自2023年以来首度录得年线涨幅，因印尼政府计划削减2026年矿业出口配额，以支撑价格。 三个月期镍下跌1.35%，最新报每吨16,600美元，今年料录得逾8%的年线涨幅。沪镍主力合约周三收高 2.44%，年线涨幅为4.93%。 其他基本金属方面，三个月期锌下跌0.24%，而 ...

交易所数据显示，截至11月21日，COMEX铜库存达到402,876短吨，超过了2003年1月创下的399,458短吨的前 纪录，并且今年库存量已增长了三倍。这一库存规模已超过LME和上海期货交易所库存总和，反映全球铜供应 链正因政策预期与套利行为发生显著重构。 但，昨晚旧金山联储主席Daly表示支持美联储在下月会议上降息，结合此前纽约联储主席也表态支持降息，这 使得市场对12月降息概率陡升，短暂缓解了市场对流动性问题的担忧。 后市来看，一德期货分析称，铜精矿供应仍偏紧，增速落后于精铜产量/消费增速。美联储官员表态支持12月 降息，CME数据显示美联储12月降息概率升至81%。市场受到提振，铜价小幅企稳。短期铜价延续高位震荡格 局，区间应对。关注海内外库存变化。分析师则认为，铜价在从历史高位回落后，目前徘徊在较高水平。由于 缺乏新的宏观或基本面催化剂，无论是向上还是向下突破都缺乏动力。 周一，由于美国COMEX铜库存创历史新高，市场总体观望气氛浓厚，芝加哥商品交易所(COMEX)期铜下跌。 今日，在美联储"放鸽"助推下，COMEX期铜有所反弹，小幅上涨0.19%。 ...

Group 1: Market Changes and Impacts - The U.S. government announced that it will not impose tariffs on imported refined copper and other input materials, leading to a significant drop in COMEX copper prices by over 18% [1][2] - Following the tariff announcement, the price difference between COMEX and LME copper narrowed from $2,700/ton to below $300/ton, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2] - The U.S. copper imports surged by 129% year-on-year in the first half of the year, reaching 860,000 tons, which contributed to the accumulation of COMEX copper inventories [2][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current copper market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with domestic refined copper production increasing due to high sulfuric acid prices, while downstream demand remains subdued [4] - The expectation of a supply surplus in the second half of the year suggests that copper prices will face downward pressure, although lower prices may stimulate buying from downstream consumers [5] - The recent decline in U.S. manufacturing PMI and non-farm employment data has raised concerns about a potential economic recession, which could negatively impact copper prices in the short term [4][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant shift in the international copper trading logic due to changes in U.S. tariff policies, particularly the exemption of certain copper imports from tariffs, which has led to a sharp decline in COMEX copper prices [1][2][3] - Following the announcement of the tariff policy, COMEX copper prices dropped over 18%, while previously, the anticipation of tariffs had caused a 17% increase in prices on July 9 [1][2] - The U.S. copper imports surged by 129% year-on-year in the first half of the year, reaching 860,000 tons, driven by expectations of tariffs, but this momentum is expected to weaken post-policy implementation [2][3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the narrowing price gap between COMEX and LME copper prices is likely to occur, primarily through a significant drop in COMEX prices, while LME prices remain relatively stable [2][3] - The current market is characterized by weak supply and demand dynamics, with domestic refined copper facing oversupply, and the expectation of lower copper prices due to reduced demand from end-users [4][5] - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of cooling, with U.S. manufacturing PMI and non-farm employment data indicating potential economic slowdown, which may further pressure copper prices [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected exemption of import tariffs on cathode copper by Trump has led to a significant drop in COMEX copper prices, marking a historic single-day decline of 22% [1] Group 1: Market Impact - COMEX copper experienced a dramatic decline, with a 22% drop in a single day, referred to as "Black Thursday" [1] - A large volume of physical copper is reportedly "trapped" in the United States due to the tariff exemption [1] Group 2: Future Implications - There is speculation about whether the excess copper will be redirected to LME warehouses in the near future [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that copper futures are trading at a premium of $8 per ton compared to COMEX copper [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that London copper futures are trading at a premium of $8 per ton compared to COMEX copper [1]

Core Viewpoint - The premium of COMEX copper over London copper has decreased to $17 per ton, influenced by Trump's latest tariff policy which excludes refined copper from tariffs [1] Group 1 - COMEX copper is currently trading at a premium of $17 per ton compared to London copper [1] - Trump's recent tariff policy has specifically excluded refined copper from the list of products subject to tariffs [1]