1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is low, and the short - term macro support for Shanghai copper is weak. The potential merger of mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore may increase their control of the global copper resource supply share to 15%, highlighting the tightness in the copper mine segment. There are concerns about the US advancing the proposal of refined copper tariffs, which may disrupt the balance of copper resources in other regions. The downstream spot demand is suppressed by high - priced copper, resulting in a structure of strong expectations but weak reality for copper. With the increase in copper prices, the downstream's acceptance of high prices may improve. Copper is expected to have a phased correction and a long - term upward trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Macro aspect**: The US added only 50,000 non - farm jobs in December, below the expected 65,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is low. China's CPI in December 2025 increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year [3]. - **Supply aspect**: In 2026, copper smelters cannot profit from long - term contracts, and the spot market is weak. The by - products such as sulfuric acid and gold are the main profit points. The refined copper production is expected to decline in January, with 5 smelters planning to stop production and one delayed commissioning [3]. - **Demand aspect**: The terminal demand is growing strongly, but the copper products segment is cautious. High prices and the expectation of year - end holidays slow down the raw material procurement. Copper inventories have increased significantly. As of January 9, the Shanghai Futures copper inventory was 111,200 tons, a weekly increase of 36%; the cathode copper inventory was 180,000 tons, a weekly increase of 24.22% [3]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - This week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose. The weekly high was 105,500 yuan/ton, the low was 98,700 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 6.85%, and the interval increase was 3.23% [6]. 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of January 9, the average premium/discount of East China cathode copper was 0 yuan/ton, and the average premium of South China was 5 yuan/ton. The downstream's willingness to take delivery was weak, and the holders' willingness to sell at a discount was low [11]. 3.4 LME Copper Spread Structure - As of January 9, LME copper rose 3.84% within the week, closing at $12,990/ton, with a spot premium of $70/ton [16]. 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply - Rio Tinto and Glencore restarted merger negotiations. If the deal is completed, their share of the global copper resource supply may reach 15%. A Canadian copper miner's Chilean mine went on strike, with an expected 70% drop in production. In 2025, China's import of copper ore and concentrates is expected to be 30.26 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.43% [22]. 3.6 Scrap Copper Supply - In November 2025, the scrap copper import volume was 208,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.92%. The cumulative import volume from January to November was 2.104 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.51%. The operating rate of recycled copper rods this week was 12.99%, a decrease of 1.72% from last week. The scrap copper substitution advantage is significant, but the transaction is blocked due to weak downstream demand [27]. 3.7 Smelter Fees - As of January 9, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $45.1/dry ton, and the RC fee was - 4.60 cents/pound. The CSPT announced a joint production cut of over 10% in 2026. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at $0/ton and 0 cents/pound [31]. 3.8 Refined Copper Supply - In December 2025, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased by 75,000 tons month - on - month, a 6.8% increase. The cumulative production from January to December increased by 1.372 million tons, a 11.38% increase. In January 2026, the refined copper production is expected to decline. In November 2025, China imported 427,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, and the cumulative import from January to November was 4.883 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [35]. 3.9 Apparent Demand - As of November 2025, the apparent copper consumption was 1.2681 million tons, a 4.06% decrease from the previous month [39]. 3.10 Copper Product Production - In December 2025, the actual production of domestic refined copper rods was 809,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.36%. It is expected to be 873,300 tons in January 2026. The total production of domestic copper tubes in December 2025 was 142,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44,000 tons but a year - on - year decrease of 43,500 tons [43]. 3.11 Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of November 2025, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.79 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The solar power installed capacity was 1.16 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%; the wind power installed capacity was 600 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.4% [47]. 3.12 Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - From January to November 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%; the sales volume was 7.513 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1% [53]. 3.13 Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - In December 2025, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 1.337 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% and a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. The cumulative retail sales from January to December were 12.809 million, a 17.6% increase. In December 2025, the retail sales of conventional fuel passenger vehicles were 920,000, a year - on - year decrease of 30% and a month - on - month increase of 2% [59]. 3.14 Global Major Exchange Copper Inventories - As of January 9, the LME copper inventory decreased by 6,350 tons to 139,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.37% and a year - on - year decrease of 47.35%. The COMEX copper inventory was 518,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.63% and a year - on - year increase of 434.28%. As of January 8, the copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong bonded areas was 115,200 tons, continuing the inventory accumulation trend. As of January 9, the Shanghai Futures copper inventory was 111,200 tons, a weekly increase of 36%; the cathode copper inventory was 180,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.22% [64][69]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The copper industry is experiencing a tightening supply situation, with a shift in demand driven by electric vehicles and AI investments, leading to an expected increase in copper prices in 2026 [3][85] - The macroeconomic environment is improving with expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which may support copper prices [3][30] - Global copper supply is projected to turn into a shortage by 2026, influenced by reduced production forecasts from major mining companies [3][43][60] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand - Chinese smelters and Antofagasta have set the 2026 copper concentrate long-term processing fee benchmark at $0/ton and $0/pound, indicating a tightening global copper supply-demand balance [3][85] - Approximately 200,000 tons of copper smelting capacity in China has been suspended due to extreme pressure on smelting profits, with current processing fees in negative territory [48][85] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to alleviate macroeconomic pressures, potentially boosting investment and consumption [3][30] - The U.S. economy is facing a mid-term election and a change in the Federal Reserve chair, which may lead to a combination of loose monetary and fiscal policies [3][85] Inventory Trends - U.S. copper inventories are expected to continue accumulating due to tariff expectations, while domestic copper social inventories are on a downward trend [3][85] - Global copper inventories remain high, influenced by U.S. market conditions [3][85] Individual Stocks - Key stocks to watch include Jiangxi Copper, Luoyang Molybdenum, Shengton, Cangge, Jincheng, and Northern Copper, with H-shares including China Nonferrous Mining and Minmetals [3][86]

沪铜产业日报 2026/1/6 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 105,320.00 | +3970.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 13,342.00 | +350.50↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -120.00 | 0.00 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 223,647.00 | +7332.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -45,864.00 | -3287.00↓ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 142,550.00 | -2775.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 145,342.00 | +33639.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 32,650.00 | -2125.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 93,271.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | ...

沪铜产业日报 2026/1/5 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户 应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 101,350.00 | +3110.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 12,833.00 | +363.50↑ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -120.00 | +20.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 216,31 ...

中信建投日前指出，资本性开支不足、资源供应受限、AI需求前景强劲，以及财政赤字扩张、利率处 于下行周期等因子重叠，又遭遇美国关税对部分关键矿产的威胁，导致实物在美国与非美之间分配不 均，造成局部货物流动性缺失，资金流入做多。一场用做多有限资源对抗弱化的美元信用的全新表达， 正在全球掀起新的资源定价范式，有色的盛宴正在舞动。 消息面上，12月26日，国家发改委发表《大力推动传统产业优化提升》，提及强化氧化铝与铜冶炼产业 的管理及优化布局，并鼓励氧化铝及铜冶炼大型骨干企业实施兼并重组。摩根士丹利认为，新政策可能 限制新增规划氧化铝产能，并预计产能整合将有利于行业龙头。同时，更低的年度铜精矿加工费/提炼 费价格和长期合同精矿量可能意味着2026年精炼铜产量削减。这些因素结合需求仍较为稳固，应支撑铜 价在高位波动。 港股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>>责任编辑：山上 有色股涨幅进一步扩大，截至发稿，赣锋锂业涨4.04%，报54.05港元；中国宏桥涨4.17%，报33.98港 元；山东黄金涨4.1%，报36.02港元；洛阳钼业涨3.9%，报19.99港元；紫金矿业涨3.76%，报37港元。 ...

Group 1 - Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd. (00358) saw its stock price rise over 9% in early trading, reaching a new high of HKD 44.62, and is currently trading at HKD 43.78 with a transaction volume of HKD 553 million [1] - Jiangxi Copper's wholly-owned subsidiary, Jiangxi Copper Hong Kong Investment, plans to acquire all issued and to-be-issued ordinary shares of SolGold plc for a total consideration of up to GBP 764 million, pending approval from SolGold shareholders and other conditions [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need to strengthen management and optimize the layout of the alumina and copper smelting industries, encouraging mergers and acquisitions among major enterprises in these sectors [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley noted that lower annual copper concentrate processing and refining fees, along with long-term contract concentrate volumes, may lead to a reduction in refined copper production by 2026, which, combined with stable demand, is expected to support copper prices at high levels [1] - This market environment is favorable for companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Minmetals Resources, and Jiangxi Copper [1]

消息面上，江西铜业股份宣布，其全资附属江铜香港投资将以全现金收购索尔黄金（SolGold plc）全部 已发行及将要发行之普通股股本，基于公告日期已发行之索尔黄金股份总数及已授出之购股权（惟江铜 香港投资已持有的索尔黄金股份除外）计算，江铜香港投资根据收购事项将可能支付之最高总对价将不 超过7.64亿英镑。收购事项的完成仍须待索尔黄金股东批准，并须满足或豁免其他条件。 值得注意的是，国家发改委12月26日发表以《大力推动传统产业优化提升》为题的文章，提及强化氧化 铝与铜冶炼产业的管理及优化布局，并鼓励氧化铝及铜冶炼大型骨干企业实施兼并重组。大摩认为，更 低的年度铜精矿加工费/提炼费价格和长期合同精矿量可能意味着2026年精炼铜产量削减。这些因素结 合需求仍较为稳固，应支撑铜价在高位波动，有利于紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、五矿资源以及江西铜业。 江西铜业股份(00358)早盘涨超9%，高见44.62港元，再创上市新高。截至发稿，涨7.57%，报43.78港 元，成交额5.53亿港元。 智通财经APP获悉，江西铜业股份(00358)早盘涨超9%，高见44.62港元，再创上市新高。截至发稿，涨 7.57%，报43.78港元 ...

智通财经APP获悉，江西铜业股份(00358)早盘涨超9%，高见44.62港元，再创上市新高。截至发稿，涨 7.57%，报43.78港元，成交额5.53亿港元。 值得注意的是，国家发改委12月26日发表以《大力推动传统产业优化提升》为题的文章，提及强化氧化 铝与铜冶炼产业的管理及优化布局，并鼓励氧化铝及铜冶炼大型骨干企业实施兼并重组。大摩认为，更 低的年度铜精矿加工费/提炼费价格和长期合同精矿量可能意味着2026年精炼铜产量削减。这些因素结 合需求仍较为稳固，应支撑铜价在高位波动，有利于紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、五矿资源以及江西铜业。 消息面上，江西铜业股份宣布，其全资附属江铜香港投资将以全现金收购索尔黄金（SolGold plc）全部 已发行及将要发行之普通股股本，基于公告日期已发行之索尔黄金股份总数及已授出之购股权（惟江铜 香港投资已持有的索尔黄金股份除外）计算，江铜香港投资根据收购事项将可能支付之最高总对价将不 超过7.64亿英镑。收购事项的完成仍须待索尔黄金股东批准，并须满足或豁免其他条件。 ...

江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)早盘涨超9%，高见44.62港元，再创上市新高。截至发稿，涨7.57%， 报43.78港元，成交额5.53亿港元。 消息面上，江西铜业股份宣布，其全资附属江铜香港投资将以全现金收购索尔黄金(SolGold plc)全部已 发行及将要发行之普通股股本，基于公告日期已发行之索尔黄金股份总数及已授出之购股权(惟江铜香 港投资已持有的索尔黄金股份除外)计算，江铜香港投资根据收购事项将可能支付之最高总对价将不超 过7.64亿英镑。收购事项的完成仍须待索尔黄金股东批准，并须满足或豁免其他条件。 值得注意的是，国家发改委12月26日发表以《大力推动传统产业优化提升》为题的文章，提及强化氧化 铝与铜冶炼产业的管理及优化布局，并鼓励氧化铝及铜冶炼大型骨干企业实施兼并重组。大摩认为，更 低的年度铜精矿加工费/提炼费价格和长期合同精矿量可能意味着2026年精炼铜产量削减。这些因素结 合需求仍较为稳固，应支撑铜价在高位波动，有利于紫金矿业（601899）、洛阳钼业（603993）、五矿 资源以及江西铜业。 ...

摩根士丹利发表报告指，国家发改委上周五(26日)发表以《大力推动传统产业优化提升》为题的文章， 提及强化氧化铝与铜冶炼产业的管理及优化布局，并鼓励氧化铝及铜冶炼大型骨干企业实施兼并重组。 该行认为新政策可能限制新增规划氧化铝产能，并预计产能整合将有利于行业龙头如中国铝业和中国宏 桥。同时，更低的年度铜精矿加工费/提炼费价格和长期合同精矿量可能意味着2026年精炼铜产量削 减。这些因素结合需求仍较为稳固，应支撑铜价在高位波动，有利于紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、五矿资源以 及江西铜业。 ...