Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a strengthening basis. The raw material side of the fundamentals shows that the spot index of copper concentrate TC continues to hit new lows, and the expectation of tightening global copper mine supply is gradually strengthening, providing a relatively solid cost support for copper prices. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of copper smelters is gradually recovering, but the pressure of global raw material supply and the rapid decline of domestic copper concentrate port inventories in the first quarter may limit the growth rate of domestic production to some extent. On the demand side, as the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" deepens and copper prices decline due to geopolitical conflicts, the production enthusiasm of domestic downstream copper processing enterprises is boosted, and they replenish inventory at low prices. In terms of inventory, the inflection point of social inventory depletion is confirmed, and industry demand is gradually improving. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slight increase in supply and boosted demand. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has both lines above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are converging. The suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 95,760 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 12,228 US dollars/ton, up 87 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 30 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 185,270 lots, down 2,125 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 55,138 lots, up 900 lots; the LME copper inventory is 360,250 tons, up 425 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 359,135 tons, down 51,986 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 62,675 tons, up 9,975 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 230,971 tons, down 2,856 tons; the COMEX copper inventory is 588,919 short tons, down 796 short tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 copper is 95,195 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the spot price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 95,315 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan. The CIF Shanghai (pyrometallurgical, ER) price for bonded warehouses is 68.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 66 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is - 565 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 70.86 US dollars/ton, down 0.65 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 231.03 million tons, up 231.03 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 68.85 US dollars per thousand tons, down 1.53 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 85,590 yuan per metal ton, down 330 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 86,290 yuan per metal ton, down 330 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south is 1,100 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan; the processing fee for blister copper in the north is 700 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 132.60 million tons, up 9.00 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 320,000 tons, down 60,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 63,090 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,250 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 78,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.90 million tons, up 0.30 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 837.53 billion yuan, up 79.84 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 9,612.11 billion yuan, down 11.10 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345.50 thousand pieces, up 415,345.50 thousand pieces [2]. Industry News - US President Trump claims that the US has control of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran is "extremely" eager to reach an agreement. US Vice - President Vance says the US has no intention of staying in Iran and will withdraw soon after handling current affairs. Vance believes the US has achieved all military goals, and the military operation has not ended because President Trump wants to ensure Iran completely loses the ability to threaten the US [2]. - According to Cui Dongshu of the Passenger Car Association, the global automobile sales volume in 2025 was 96.89 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The world automobile sales volume in February 2026 reached 6.74 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. The world automobile sales volume from January to February 2026 reached 13.96 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Due to the lower - than - expected growth rate of the Chinese auto market, the growth of the world auto market sales volume slowed down significantly from January to February 2026. The Chinese auto market has generally performed well in recent years, and its share has continued to increase. From 2020 to 2023, China's share in the world market increased to 33.8%, in 2024 it reached 34.2%, in 2025 it reached 35.4%, and in 2026 it reached 29.7%, a significant decline compared with 2025. The overseas environment for self - owned brands going global is good, with many countries in a period of low penetration rate and large market space. The speed determines the effect. From January to February 2026, the global automobile sales volume increased by 0.1%, among which the Chinese automobile sales volume decreased by 9%, the Indian automobile market sales volume increased by 11%, the Thai automobile market increased by 64%, the Russian market sales volume decreased by 7%, and some South American markets performed well. The potential of Chinese car companies in many other underdeveloped small countries is still huge [2]. - The China Association for Quality and Safety Promotion of Consumer Goods launched the "2026 Series of Actions to Improve the Quality and Safety of Online - sold Products", aiming to guide the industry out of "involution - style" competition and better protect the quality of online - sold products and the legitimate rights and interests of consumers. After selection, a total of 11 major categories and 41 types of products were determined for monitoring, including household appliances, electronic appliances, electric bicycles, lithium batteries, etc. [2]. - The European Federation for Transport and Environment released a report stating that affected by the military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, the fuel cost of the global shipping industry has risen significantly, which not only increases the industry's operating pressure but also provides an opportunity to accelerate energy transformation. The report shows that since February 28, the cumulative additional fuel cost of the global shipping industry has exceeded 4.6 billion euros [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated and rose, with the import window for domestic refined copper opening. Geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran continue to impact the market, causing concerns about global economic growth and putting pressure on copper demand and liquidity. Short - term support levels are in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton. Light - position long positions can be considered if inventory accumulation weakens and spot discounts narrow; otherwise, continue to observe if geopolitical conflicts expand [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina fluctuated strongly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. Domestic alumina manufacturers are dealing with losses, and overseas alumina raw materials are being redirected. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is under pressure due to production cuts in the Middle East, leading to a "rush for aluminum" in the overseas market. The domestic market is in a state of inventory accumulation and slow demand start, showing a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. Nickel ore prices are rising due to supply shortages and increased shipping costs, but the large increase in primary nickel inventory poses significant pressure. Despite the expected supplementary quota in July, considering the rising cost, short - term long positions based on the cost line can be considered, while being vigilant about macro - level impacts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices rose. Geopolitical factors, economic data, and inventory changes all affect the copper market. LME inventory decreased by 225 tons to 311,600 tons, Comex inventory decreased by 1,708 tons to 535,028 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 7,935 tons to 322,998 tons. Short - term support is at 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina rose 0.57% to 2,989 yuan/ton, Shanghai aluminum fell 0.48% to 24,970 yuan/ton, and aluminum alloy fell 0.13% to 23,685 yuan/ton. Domestic alumina manufacturers are dealing with losses, and overseas raw materials are being redirected. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is under pressure, and the domestic market is waiting for a turning point [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel rose 0.95% to 17,485 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.37% to 136,900 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 744 tons to 283,914 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 845 tons to 57,307 tons. Nickel ore prices are rising, but primary nickel inventory is increasing. Short - term long positions based on the cost line can be considered [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On March 16, 2026, the price of flat - water copper was 99,155 yuan/ton, down 1,345 yuan from March 13. LME and COMEX inventories changed, and social inventory decreased by 0.8 million tons [1][4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead was 16,330 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan from March 13. Warehouse receipts in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 535 tons, and weekly inventory increased by 9,220 tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai quotes decreased. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 32,000 tons, and the social inventory of alumina increased by 45,000 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 2,650 yuan/ton. LME and SHFE inventories changed, and social inventory increased by 2,953 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.8%. The weekly inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 793 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.51 million tons [7]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased by 3.3%. The weekly inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 851 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium and Discount**: Charts show the spot premium and discount trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [9][10][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [15][18][22]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [30][32][34]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [36][38][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the trends of copper concentrate index, copper smelting fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [42][44][46]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many honors. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel research, both with significant achievements and media exposure [49][50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to concerns about inflation, causing a decline in global risk appetite. The short - term market sentiment has cooled, and the stock index may experience a correction. Attention should be paid to changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, domestic Two Sessions policies, and market sentiment. Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index may see increased volatility in the short term, government bonds may fluctuate in the short term, and different commodity sectors also show different trends [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: Geopolitical conflicts have pushed up oil prices, triggering inflation concerns. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have risen in the short term, and global risk appetite has declined. Domestic: The manufacturing PMI in February was 49%, a 0.3 - percentage point decrease from the previous month, indicating a slight slowdown in economic prosperity. Policy: The government work report's 2026 development goals and fiscal and monetary policies are less aggressive than in 2025. Market trading is mainly focused on the Middle East geopolitical risks. In the short term, the stock index may correct, while government bonds may fluctuate. For commodities, black and non - ferrous metals may oscillate in the short term, energy and chemicals may rise significantly, and precious metals may oscillate. The recommended operation is to be cautious when going long, and to wait and see for black and non - ferrous metals [4]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as optoelectronic, power grid equipment, and education, the domestic stock market has risen in the short term. However, due to factors such as the slowdown in economic prosperity, less aggressive policies, and the impact of the Middle East geopolitical risks, the stock index may correct in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious when going long in the short term [5]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market declined on Thursday night. Affected by the strengthening of the US dollar and the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, spot gold and silver closed down. Precious metals are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious when going long [5]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - In the peak season, copper demand needs verification. High sulfuric acid prices and relatively high gold and silver prices ensure smelter profits, leading to a record - high refined copper production in March (expected to reach 1.2 million tons). Domestic and foreign copper inventories have been accumulating, indicating a long - term supply shortage and a short - term sufficiency [6]. Aluminum - On Thursday, the Shanghai aluminum market fluctuated sharply. It rose overnight due to Bahrain Aluminum's supply suspension, and then declined in the afternoon due to the Iranian military's statement about the Strait of Hormuz and the lower - than - expected economic growth targets at the Two Sessions. The conflict is expected to support aluminum prices, but market sentiment remains volatile [7][8]. Zinc - The zinc fundamentals are weak. The short - term geopolitical conflict has supported zinc prices, but in the medium term, there is a risk of a breakdown in prices after the conflict eases. In 2026, zinc concentrate supply is expected to increase by 300,000 - 400,000 tons. Domestic smelting capacity is expanding, and overseas production will recover. Demand is not optimistic, and inventory pressure has increased [8]. Lead - In 2026, the global refined lead market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus situation, with a larger surplus than in 2025. The lead price is expected to oscillate widely and trend downward. In the short and medium term, lead production is high, demand is weak, and inventory has been increasing [9]. Nickel - As of March 5, LME nickel inventory was 287,550 tons, much higher than in previous years. Indonesia's RKAB quota in 2026 has decreased significantly, but the first - quarter production will be normal. Nickel prices have strong support at the bottom but limited upward momentum [9]. Tin - The smelting start - up rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has declined seasonally but is still higher than in previous years and will recover after the Lantern Festival. The conflict in Myanmar has caused concerns about tin supply, but there is no actual impact. Demand is weak in various industries, and domestic and LME tin inventories have increased [10]. Carbonate Lithium - On Thursday, the carbonate lithium futures contract rose 3%, and the spot price also increased. The social inventory has been decreasing. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait for it to stabilize and then go long at a low price [11]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the industrial silicon futures contract rose 2.27%. In a situation of weak supply and demand, over - capacity, and high inventory, it is priced close to cost. It is recommended to operate within a range, paying attention to the cost support [12]. Polysilicon - On Thursday, the polysilicon futures contract fell 0.2%. Inventory has been accumulating at a high level, and the downstream silicon wafer price has declined rapidly. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and short - sellers should hold positions cautiously [12]. Energy and Chemicals Methanol - The inland methanol market has weakened, and the port basis has remained weak. Due to the geopolitical conflict, Iranian methanol plants have shut down, and shipping has been affected. The market is worried about a reduction in imports, and methanol prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [13]. PP - The geopolitical conflict has pushed up the cost of polypropylene and accelerated inventory reduction. The price has risen in the short term, but attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation to prevent a sharp decline [13]. LLDPE - The polyethylene market price has risen. After the Spring Festival, supply has increased, and demand is gradually rising. The increase in oil prices has pushed up the cost of PE, but there is a risk in the market [13]. Urea - The domestic urea market is weakening. After the Spring Festival, it was supported by agricultural demand, low inventory, and high tender prices. However, the release of commercial reserves may suppress the price in the short term. The price trend depends on the connection between industrial and agricultural demand [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The overnight CBOT soybean futures for May delivery fell 0.81%. The US soybean export sales and shipments data showed a mixed performance. The export sales decreased compared with the previous week and the four - week average, while the export shipments increased compared with the previous week [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean procurement for March by oil mills is basically completed. The soybean meal market is in a range - bound situation, with the top limited by high domestic inventory and weak demand and the bottom supported by the cost of US soybeans. The rapeseed meal market fluctuates with the soybean meal market. In the short term, rapeseed meal prices are expected to remain stable, but the supply pressure may increase as imported rapeseed arrives [16]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The oil mill opening rate has declined slightly. The soybean oil market is supported by oil prices but is facing supply - demand pressure. The rapeseed oil market is supported by oil prices and low inventory but may face supply pressure as Canadian rapeseed arrives in March [16]. Palm Oil - The BMD Malaysian palm oil futures rose 0.67%. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up oil prices, which in turn has boosted palm oil prices. In addition, the risk of drought in Indonesia has increased, and the palm oil supply may be tight in the short term [17]. Corn - The corn price increase has slowed down. The prices in the northeast and northern ports are still strong, while the prices in the sales areas have stabilized. The increase in the arrival of imported barley and the expected release of policy - related grain sources may limit the upward movement of corn prices [17]. Pigs - The early - morning pig price in China was stable. The supply of pigs is abundant, and the demand is weak after the Spring Festival. Although there is support from the price - support mentality and the purchase - storage policy, the short - term rebound is limited. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of second - fattening and slaughterhouse inventory [18].

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period marks a significant transformation in China's non-ferrous metal industry, transitioning from quantity accumulation to quality leap, enhancing global competitiveness and strategic importance [2]. Group 1: Achievements in Production and Economic Indicators - The production of major metals exceeded 80 million tons for the first time, with a projected output of 81.75 million tons by 2025, accounting for over 50% of global supply, with annual growth of 5% [4]. - Economic indicators improved significantly, with the number of large non-ferrous metal enterprises reaching 12,000 by 2025, a 39.2% increase from 2020, and total assets reaching 6.6 trillion yuan, with an average annual growth of 6.2% [5]. - The total import and export trade volume of non-ferrous metals is expected to reach 412.2 billion USD by 2025, with an average annual growth of 24.2%, and a notable shift towards high-value-added products [5]. Group 2: Structural Optimization and Layout Adjustment - The industry underwent deep structural adjustments, with a focus on supply-side structural reforms, leading to enhanced concentration and high-end production capabilities [7]. - The optimization of industrial layout has been achieved, with significant regional clustering in various provinces for different metals, improving resource allocation efficiency [8]. - The competitive strength of enterprises has increased, with leading companies emerging and specialized small and medium enterprises gaining advantages in niche markets [9]. Group 3: Innovation and Digital Empowerment - The industry has accelerated technological innovation, with significant advancements in equipment and processes, achieving world-leading levels in several technologies [11]. - High-end materials have seen breakthroughs, with domestic production capabilities improving significantly, particularly in critical materials like rare earths and high-purity metals [12]. - Digital transformation has progressed, with key processes achieving a CNC rate of 72.6% and equipment digitalization rate of 57.6%, enhancing operational efficiency [13]. Group 4: Green Low-Carbon and Circular Development - The industry has made substantial progress in green and low-carbon transformation, with energy consumption intensity decreasing significantly across various metal production processes [15]. - The recycling of non-ferrous metals has flourished, with a projected output of over 20 million tons by 2025, representing a quarter of the total output of common non-ferrous metals in China [17]. - The establishment of a comprehensive recycling system has been emphasized, contributing to resource and environmental sustainability [17]. Group 5: Supply Chain Stability and Safety Enhancement - The industry has strengthened resource security, with significant domestic resource development and enhanced overseas cooperation, increasing the resilience of supply chains [19]. - A robust quality standard system has been established, with numerous standards published to support product quality and brand influence [20]. - Safety production levels have improved, with ongoing efforts to enhance safety standards and practices across the industry [20]. Group 6: Open Cooperation and Global Governance - The industry has expanded its international presence, with significant overseas investments and resource development projects, enhancing global competitiveness [22]. - Progress has been made in international standardization, with a notable increase in the number of international standards developed [23]. - Corporate social responsibility initiatives have been actively pursued, enhancing the industry's reputation and contributing to local community development [24].

Group 1 - In 2025, China's crude steel production reached 96,081.2 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4% [1] - The total steel output in 2025 was 144,612.1 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [1] Group 2 - The production of refined copper was 1,472.0 million tons, reflecting a growth of 10.4% [2] - The output of aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) was 4,501.6 million tons, with a growth rate of 2.4% [2] - Cement production decreased to 16.9 billion tons, down by 6.9% compared to the previous year [2] - The production of electric power generation units reached 37,087.4 million kilowatts, marking a significant increase of 37.6% [2] - The output of new energy vehicles was 1,652.4 million units, representing a growth of 25.1% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Revere Copper Products is increasing its investment in the U.S. due to a surge in demand for copper driven by tariffs and data center needs [2][3] - The company plans to expand its capital expenditures to $30 million this year, a significant increase from previous years where expenditures were around $2 million or lower [2] - Revere aims to double the capacity of its North Carolina plant and increase production at its Rome, New York facility by 100% to meet the demand from artificial intelligence data centers [2] Group 2 - The acceleration in new orders is attributed to a 50% tariff imposed by the U.S. government on imported semi-finished copper in August [3] - With the increase in domestic copper production capacity, it is expected that U.S. copper imports may significantly decline by 2027, as current domestic refined copper production is insufficient to meet manufacturer demand [4] - Additional measures are needed to prevent low-cost imports to support domestic manufacturing amid the accelerating demand from data centers [5]

Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - The Shanghai copper futures market experienced narrow fluctuations with a strong surge near the close, with the main contract 2604 opening at 102,670 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 104,170 CNY/ton, and closing at 103,920 CNY/ton, up 1.19% [1] - The trading volume for the main contract was 157,481 lots, an increase of 51,782 lots, while the open interest rose by 19,104 lots to 203,798 lots [1] - In the London market, copper prices also rose, with the latest quote at 13,440 USD/ton, up 1.37% [1] Group 2: Domestic Market Sentiment - The domestic market sentiment is optimistic, supported by the "Shanghai Seven Measures" which have led to a slight recovery in the real estate market, providing confidence for metal consumption [2] - The upcoming National People's Congress is expected to release the 2026-2030 five-year plan, which could guide market policies and related trends [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The global refined copper surplus is projected to increase significantly in 2025, with an initial surplus of 380,000 tons, compared to 69,000 tons in 2024 [2] - High inventory levels are exerting downward pressure on copper prices, with LME registered warehouse copper stocks rising to 253,600 tons, the highest level since March 2025 [2] - Domestic downstream enterprises are slowly resuming operations, leading to a significant increase in refined copper social inventory, which, combined with profit-taking and weak demand, is causing the market to experience downward pressure [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - The market is expected to face continued pressure from high copper prices and high inventory levels, with short-term price adjustments anticipated [3] - Despite short-term pressures, the medium-term outlook for copper remains optimistic due to its strategic attributes and expected demand growth [3] - Overall, short-term copper prices are likely to remain volatile [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated weakly, and the domestic refined copper spot import window closed. Despite the improvement in the labor market, the Fed still needs to cut interest rates by 100 basis points in 2026. Concerns about AI led to a decline in the Nasdaq, affecting market sentiment. LME, Comex, and SHFE copper inventories all increased. There is a risk of a second correction due to the retreat of macro - sentiment and inventory accumulation. However, the core driving factors for copper price increase, such as supply gap due to insufficient global copper mine capital expenditure and demand growth in new energy and AI computing infrastructure, remain unchanged. A significant correction could be a good opportunity to set up long - term long positions [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. The SMM alumina price stopped falling and rebounded. The overseas alumina price increase and domestic raw material winter storage led to an upward movement in the alumina futures. However, social inventory backlog and expiring warehouse receipt cancellation pressure suppressed the upward trend. After the holiday, there may be a short - term price increase in Shanghai aluminum, but the overall space is limited. The subsequent price increase position of aluminum will be determined by the inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. LME nickel inventory increased, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. The approved nickel ore production quota in Indonesia has shrunk significantly compared to the previous year. An Indonesian nickel - iron factory's output is expected to decline. The nickel ore premium has strengthened again, and there are concerns about resource supply shortages. Although the short - term demand has weakened, the cost support is strong. There are opportunities to go long lightly near the cost line, and a significant reduction in visible inventory may further boost prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The macro environment is complex, with factors such as Fed interest - rate cut expectations and AI concerns. The increase in inventory poses a short - term risk, but the long - term upward logic remains. A significant price correction could be a long - term investment opportunity [1]. - **Aluminum**: Futures prices fluctuated weakly. Overseas price increases and domestic winter storage supported the alumina futures, but inventory pressure limited the upward space. The post - holiday price trend of aluminum is related to inventory accumulation [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Prices declined, and inventory changes were mixed. Indonesian production quota cuts and supply - side issues led to cost support. There are long - entry opportunities near the cost line [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On February 26, 2026, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 245 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. LME and SHFE inventories showed different changes. The active contract import profit and loss improved by 580 yuan/ton [4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 20 yuan/ton. Some prices and processing fees remained stable, and the上期所库存 increased by 8715 tons on a weekly basis [4]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of无锡 and 南海 aluminum increased. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 21.6 tons on a weekly basis, while the alumina social inventory decreased by 0.4 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1400 yuan/ton. The nickel inventory increased by 1318 tons on a weekly basis [5]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算价 remained unchanged. The social inventory increased by 0.61 tons on a weekly basis [7]. - **Tin**: The主力结算价 increased by 4.2%. The上期所 inventory increased by 2264 tons on a weekly basis [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [9][10][13]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2026 [14][15][16]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [20][21][22]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [26][27][28]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2026 [32][33][34]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of smelting - related indicators such as copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [39][40][41]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. They have rich experience in non - ferrous metal research, have won many awards, and are often interviewed by multiple media [46][47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with an increase in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. The raw material side of the fundamentals has the copper concentrate TC spot index running at a low level, and the expectation of tight ore still provides solid support for copper prices. On the supply side, smelters shut down during the holiday and the number of production days is relatively small. Coupled with the tightening of the import window, the arrival volume has decreased, and the domestic copper supply has decreased. On the demand side, after the holiday is the traditional domestic consumption peak season, and with the support of policies for consumption, the overall industry expectation is positive. In terms of options, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.72, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0062, the option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are converging. The conclusion is to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 102,670 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 210 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 13,275 dollars/ton, a daily decrease of 47.5 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 260 yuan/ton, unchanged. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 184,703 lots, a daily increase of 74,655 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 67,640 lots, a daily increase of 2,750 lots. The LME copper inventory is 249,650 tons, a daily increase of 6,475 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 272,475 tons, a weekly increase of 23,564 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 12,525 tons, a daily increase of 1,600 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 289,219 tons, a daily decrease of 2,856 tons. The COMEX copper inventory is 601,037 short tons, a daily decrease of 528 short tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 101,795 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 270 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 102,045 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 100 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 47.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 50.5 dollars/ton, a daily decrease of 0.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 875 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 480 yuan. The LME copper cash - 3 months spread is - 76.52 dollars/ton, a daily increase of 11.68 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 270.43 million tons per month, a monthly increase of 17.8 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 50.53 dollars per thousand tons, a weekly increase of 1.84 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 92,340 yuan per metal ton, a daily decrease of 100 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 93,040 yuan per metal ton, a daily decrease of 100 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 2,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 1,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 132.6 million tons per month, a monthly increase of 9 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons per month, a monthly increase of 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons per week, a weekly increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 68,290 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 200 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 82,200 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 150 yuan. The output of copper products is 222.91 million tons per month, a monthly increase of 0.31 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 639.502 billion yuan per month, a monthly increase of 79.113 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 8,278.814 billion yuan per month, a monthly increase of 41.9724 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345,500 pieces, a monthly increase of 415,345,500 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 44.09%, a daily increase of 0%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 36.53%, a daily decrease of 0.09%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month is 26%, a daily increase of 0.0047. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.72, a daily decrease of 0.0062 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US Trade Representative Greer said that the United States will continue to promote the 301 investigation into China's implementation of the first - phase economic and trade agreement and may take tariff measures. Chinese Premier Li Qiang held talks with German Chancellor Merz. China is willing to strengthen strategic docking and policy communication with Germany, expand bilateral trade, and promote cooperation in emerging fields. The China - Germany joint press statement emphasizes deepening mutually beneficial and win - win cooperation. The secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, Cui Dongshu, said that the inventory of the national passenger car industry at the end of January was 3.57 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 80,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 580,000 vehicles. The Fujian Provincial Department of Commerce and other 9 departments issued the implementation rules for automobile trade - in in Fujian Province in 2026, providing subsidies for new energy and fuel vehicle trade - in [2].

Group 1 - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports a surplus of 173,000 tons in the global refined copper market by December 2025, an increase from a surplus of 74,000 tons reported in November [2] - The global refined copper market is expected to have a surplus of 380,000 tons in 2025, compared to a surplus of 69,000 tons in the previous year [2] - In December 2025, global refined copper production is projected to be 2,430,000 tons, while consumption is expected to be 2,260,000 tons [2] Group 2 - Global copper mine production is forecasted to reach 23,125,000 tons in 2025, up from 22,958,000 tons in 2024 [3] - The global copper smelting capacity is expected to increase to 34,945,000 tons in 2025, compared to 33,199,000 tons in 2024 [3] - The global refined copper consumption is projected to be 28,160,000 tons in 2025, an increase from 27,328,000 tons in 2024 [3]