本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 沪铜产业日报 2025/8/26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 79,190.00 | -500.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,802.50 | +6.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 10.00 | 0.00 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 175,488.00 | +64228.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -1,913.00 | +170 ...

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 26 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铜价放量上涨创 8 月新高，日内 LME 休市，COMEX 铜震荡微涨，鲍威尔在全球央 行年会上释放降息信号，同时上海楼市放开限购，日内市场做多情绪高涨，盘面 月差结构略有收窄，现货涨 565 至 79395，现货升水跌 10 至 140， 日内销售情绪 明显走低，社库较上周四下降 0.87 万吨至 12.3 万吨，去库支撑现货升水。内外 盘 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-08-26 期 上海楼市新政出炉！复刻北京做法，放开外环限购限制 观点分享： 8 月 25 日周一，上海市住建委等六部门发布《关于优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通 知》，涉及住房限购、公积金、住房信贷、住房税收等 6 项调整，自周二起施行。此次新政 主要亮点包括：1.符合条件的家庭，外环外购房不限套数，非沪籍需要至少连续 1 年社保；2. 成年单身人士按照居民家庭执行住房限购政策，单身也可以购买 2 套住房；3.提高个人住房 公积金贷款额度，公积金可支付首付款，支持"又提又贷"；4.商贷利率不再区分首套和二 套；5.非沪籍人士首套住房免收房产税，第二套房享受人均 60 平方米的免税面积。从短期看， 该举措将直接有利于释放上海购房需求，尤其是外环外区域库存压力大的楼盘（库存占比 70%，消化周期超 20 个月），可能带动成交量回升。"8.18"会议提出"采取有力措施巩固 房地产市场止跌回稳态势"。同时，同为一线城市的北京在 8 月 8 日也发布了稳定楼市的新 政，优化了限购政策、提升了公积金支 ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 沪铜产业日报 2025/8/25 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 79,690.00 | +1000.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,809.00 | +12.50↑ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 10.00 | -10.00↓ ...

国际铜业研究组织（ICSG）最新月报数据显示，2025年上半年全球铜市为过剩25.1万吨，上年同期为 过剩39.5万吨。上半年全球精炼铜产量为1421.20万吨，上年同期为1371.60万吨；精炼铜消费量为1396 万吨，上年同期为1332.10万吨。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Insights - In July 2025, China's refined copper imports totaled 335,969.236 tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.32% but a year-on-year increase of 12.05% [1][3]. Import Data Summary - The Democratic Republic of the Congo was the largest supplier, with imports of 142,798.87 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 20.72% and a year-on-year increase of 20.83% [2][3]. - Russia ranked second, with imports of 30,590.119 tons, which decreased by 32.25% month-on-month but increased by 20.76% year-on-year [2][3]. - Other notable suppliers included: - Zambia: 20,206.62 tons, up 28.99% month-on-month and 469.51% year-on-year [2]. - Chile: 19,232.32 tons, up 11.73% month-on-month but down 32.64% year-on-year [2]. - Netherlands: 16,841.56 tons, up 221.99% month-on-month [2]. - China: 13,156.07 tons, down 65.17% month-on-month but up 6398.49% year-on-year [2]. - Kazakhstan: 11,604.99 tons, down 33.21% month-on-month and down 42.41% year-on-year [2]. - Japan: 11,386.95 tons, down 24.67% month-on-month and down 39.51% year-on-year [2]. - Serbia: 7,381.33 tons, up 36.69% month-on-month and 145.39% year-on-year [2]. - Morocco: 6,611.97 tons, down 11.63% month-on-month but up 30.99% year-on-year [2]. - Australia: 6,399.56 tons, down 38.21% month-on-month and down 61.17% year-on-year [2]. - Peru: 6,031.50 tons, up 12237.90% month-on-month but down 37.29% year-on-year [2]. - South Korea: 5,929.16 tons, down 48.82% month-on-month and down 28.04% year-on-year [2]. - Uzbekistan: 5,285.00 tons, up 88.54% month-on-month but down 6.98% year-on-year [2]. - Pakistan: 4,667.68 tons, up 52.57% month-on-month and up 7.75% year-on-year [2]. - Poland: 3,503.60 tons, down 18.26% month-on-month and down 36.65% year-on-year [2]. - South Africa: 2,878.90 tons, down 0.65% month-on-month and down 22.55% year-on-year [2]. - Myanmar: 2,813.13 tons, up 107.15% month-on-month and 988.21% year-on-year [2]. - Indonesia: 2,648.80 tons, down 41.73% month-on-month and up 1.25% year-on-year [2]. - Iran: 1,998.54 tons [2]. - UAE: 1,929.54 tons, up 49.64% month-on-month but down 53.38% year-on-year [2]. - Mongolia: 1,664.43 tons, up 4.37% month-on-month and 23.55% year-on-year [2]. - Malaysia: 1,643.05 tons, up 82.30% month-on-month and 94.50% year-on-year [2]. - Qatar: 1,221.70 tons, down 16.69% month-on-month and down 33.43% year-on-year [2]. - Thailand: 874.12 tons, down 8.31% month-on-month and down 48.04% year-on-year [2]. - India: 840.01 tons, up 12.99% month-on-month and 227.26% year-on-year [2]. - Total imports included data from other unspecified origins [5].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The outcome of the September Fed interest rate meeting is highly uncertain, leading to a stalemate between bulls and bears in the market. The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is approaching, and the market is speculating on the Fed's interest rate cuts. It is expected that Powell will make cautious decisions at the meeting to avoid significant easing. The Russia-Ukraine situation has improved, reducing market risk aversion. On the supply side, refined copper production in May increased by 14.0% year-on-year, and the port inventory of copper concentrates has declined to a five-year low. The collapse of the El Teniente copper mine in Chile has led to a short-term reduction in global supply. The TC/RC fees for smelters continue to stabilize and rise, with long-term contracts profitable and spot contracts still in the red. The sulfuric acid price is at a historically high level, supporting smelter profits. In August, only one smelter has a maintenance plan, and a newly commissioned smelter in East China has started production. It is expected that the production of refined copper will not fluctuate significantly, but smelters may cut or halt production in the later third quarter due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid inventory build-up. On the demand side, downstream demand is tepid during the off-season, with an increase in new orders but a decrease in market trading volume compared to the previous period. Real estate investment and sales have declined, but the power grid and new energy sectors provide demand resilience. The inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased this week, indicating weak short-term demand and a loose supply-demand pattern. However, as the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, domestic demand is expected to improve. Overall, with the Fed interest rate meeting approaching, the market is in a stalemate, and the market situation is highly uncertain. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the expected peak season demand provides support for the market. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][49]. Summary by Directory Macro Fundamental Information - On August 12, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US CPI in July was flat at 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.8%, and rose 0.2% month-on-month, in line with market expectations. The core CPI in July rose 3.1% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3%, reaching a new high since February. After the data release, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September exceeded 90%. On August 14, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the PPI in July soared to 3.3% year-on-year, the highest level since February this year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%, and rose 0.9% month-on-month, the largest increase since June 2022, cooling the market's expectations of a Fed rate cut [5]. Recent Developments in the Copper Mining Sector - Jintian Co., Ltd. announced on August 13 that with the rapid development of the AI industry driving the growth of chip computing power demand, copper materials have become the core materials for advanced chip interconnection and heat dissipation due to their excellent electrical and thermal conductivity. The company's high-precision special-shaped oxygen-free copper busbar products have been mass-produced in the 3DVC new AI heat dissipation structure and have reached strategic cooperation with global leading heat dissipation module enterprises, and are applied in multiple top-level GPU heat dissipation solutions. The company's self-developed copper heat pipes, liquid-cooled copper tubes and other products have also been successfully introduced into the computing power servers of multiple leading enterprises [7]. - On August 14, foreign media reported that Chilean mining company Antofagasta's semi-annual report showed that its core profit increased by nearly 60% year-on-year. Driven by the strong global copper demand and rising prices, its EBITDA increased from $1.39 billion in the same period last year to $2.23 billion, slightly higher than market expectations [9]. Analysis of LME Copper and SHFE Copper Prices - This week, copper prices fluctuated upward. As of August 19, the highest price of SHFE copper during the week was 79,510 yuan/ton, the lowest was 78,740 yuan/ton, with a weekly amplitude of 0.97% and an interval decline of -0.16%. The highest price of LME copper during the week was $9,865/ton, the lowest was $9,680/ton, with a weekly amplitude of 1.88% and an interval decline of -1.58% [10]. - As of August 20, the average spot premium in East China was 140 yuan/ton, and the average premium in South China was 60 yuan/ton. The market supply was tight, and the number of domestic smelter maintenance increased, leading to a stronger spot premium. It is expected that the premium will face pressure after the arrival of imported goods next month [16]. Copper Supply Side - According to customs data, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and ores in July 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.24% and a month-on-month increase of 8.94%. From January to July 2025, China imported 17.314 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%. As of August 15, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 Chinese ports was 422,000 tons, a decrease of 6,700 tons from the previous week [19]. - The El Teniente copper mine under Codelco in Chile suffered a mine collapse on July 31, with a magnitude of 4.2, resulting in the death of six miners. The smelter restarted on August 13 [19]. - As of August 15, the spot TC in China was -37.65 dollars/dry ton, and the RC was -3.76 cents/pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rise. The result of the mid-year long-term contract negotiation was set at 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. Long-term contracts were profitable, while spot contracts were still in the red. The sulfuric acid price was at a historically high level, supporting smelter profits. Factory seasonal maintenance plans will still lead to production cuts in September and October [22][23]. - In June 2025, the import volume of scrap copper was 183,200 tons, higher than expected. The increase in the price difference between refined and scrap copper reduced the substitution advantage of scrap copper, and smelters reduced their scrap copper usage rate [28]. - In July 2025, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1743 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 39,400 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.21%. The cumulative production from January to July was 7.7673 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.82%. The smelters that had undergone maintenance earlier gradually resumed production. Currently, only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August, and a newly commissioned smelter in East China has started production. It is expected that the production will not fluctuate significantly. However, production may be cut or halted in the later third quarter due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid inventory build-up [28][29]. - China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in July were 480,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 3.113 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [29]. Copper Inventory Data - After the end of the copper siphon effect and a large increase in LME copper inventory, the inventory build-up speed has recently slowed down. As of August 15, the LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, a decrease of 0.03% from the previous week and an increase of 28.76% from the previous month. The inventory build-up speed at COMEX has also gradually slowed down. The COMEX copper inventory was 267,200 tons, an increase of 1.16% from the previous week and an increase of 11.59% from the previous month [31]. - On August 18, the cumulative spot copper inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 94,300 tons, an increase of 12,800 tons from August 11 and an increase of 7,500 tons from August 14. The inventory in the Shanghai bonded area was 88,100 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from August 11 and an increase of 7,500 tons from August 14. The inventory in the Guangdong bonded area was 6,200 tons, an increase of 800 tons from August 11 and unchanged from August 14. The inventory in the bonded areas continued to increase due to the arrival of export goods from some smelters [31]. - The SHFE inventory has remained at a low level with slight fluctuations and has not increased significantly. However, it increased by 2,423 tons compared to the previous week, reflecting weak downstream demand and a loose supply-demand pattern in the short term [31]. Downstream Terminal Demand - As of June 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3705 million tons, at a historically high level. Since the beginning of this year, the apparent consumption of copper has been at a high level. China's refined copper consumption is expected to increase by approximately 2% in 2025 and by approximately 0.8% in 2026 [40]. - Downstream demand is tepid, with an increase in new orders but a decrease in market trading volume compared to the previous period. However, the power grid and new energy sectors have strong resilience, providing support for copper prices [40]. - According to Steel Union data, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rod in July 2025 was 61.32%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.99% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.85%. The operating rate was lower than expected, and downstream cable procurement was cautious, putting pressure on copper rod processing fees. Refined copper rod enterprises showed unexpected production cuts, and the current operating load is at a historically low level. It is expected that the production reduction in August will be limited [40]. - The operating load of copper tube enterprises remained basically stable, with a slight downward trend. Some manufacturers planned to increase production due to concerns about future supply shortages. Market demand was weak, and there was also periodic restocking [40]. - From January to July, the retail sales of air conditioners increased by 16.7% year-on-year, maintaining a steady upward trend in the first half of the year. In August, the growth rate of the retail end turned negative for the first time, with a 6% and 19% decline in online and offline sales respectively in the first week of August. The domestic sales production plan for air conditioners in September was 5.082 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%, and the export production plan was 4.785 million units, a significant decrease of 14.6% [40]. - According to the National Energy Administration, the investment in power grid projects from January to June was 291.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, reaching a historical high for the same period. The investment in power source projects from January to June was 363.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. Solar and wind power increased by 98.8% and 107% respectively. Power grid projects remain a rigid downstream demand for copper, supporting copper prices [46]. - From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12% year-on-year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4% year-on-year. From January to July, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 515.6 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%, an expansion of 0.5 percentage points from January to June. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 4.9566 trillion yuan, a decrease of 6.5%, an expansion of 0.5 percentage points from January to June [46].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly, with a decrease in trading volume and an increase in spot premium and basis. The supply at the mine end increased, and the TC spot index rebounded significantly. The supply in the domestic market increased due to the rise in copper ore supply and the relatively strong spot market. The impact of the consumption off - season weakened, and the demand improved slightly during the transition from the off - season to the peak season. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of both supply and demand growth, with inventory at a medium - low level and positive industry expectations. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility decreased slightly. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows a convergence of the green column below the 0 - axis. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low levels with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 78,640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,699.50 dollars/ton, an increase of 7.50 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 135,865 lots, a decrease of 4,502 lots. The positions of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper were 5,193 lots, an increase of 686 lots. The LME copper inventory was 155,150 tons, a decrease of 450 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper was 86,361 tons, an increase of 4,428 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants were 11,250 tons, a decrease of 125 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of cathode copper were 25,223 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper was 79,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper was 79,105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 52 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 48.50 dollars/ton, an increase of 4 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 460 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) was - 96.85 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.10 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 256.01 million tons, an increase of 21.05 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 37.68 dollars/thousand tons, an increase of 0.38 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 69,430 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 210 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 70,130 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 210 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 900 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north, it was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 127 million tons, a decrease of 3.20 million tons. The import volume of unforged copper and copper products was 480,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 55,640 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 68,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. The ex - factory price of sulfuric acid (98%) of Jiangxi Copper was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 216.94 million tons, a decrease of 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 291.066 billion yuan, an increase of 87.08 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 5,357.977 billion yuan, an increase of 692.221 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,689,220,700 pieces, an increase of 1,834,353 pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 7.08%, an increase of 0.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.52%, an increase of 0.02%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month was 8.69%, a decrease of 0.0023; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.24, a decrease of 0.0447 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From January to July, the tax revenue of the equipment manufacturing and modern service industries performed well. The tax revenue of the railway, ship, aerospace equipment, computer and communication equipment, and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industries increased by 33%, 10.1%, and 8% respectively. The tax revenue of the scientific research and technology service industry increased by 12.7%, and that of the culture, sports and entertainment industry increased by 4.1%. A national teleconference on promoting the replacement of consumer goods with new ones was held in Beijing, emphasizing the need to optimize policies and implement consumption - promoting policies to cultivate new growth points in the consumer market. S&P affirmed the "AA+/A - 1+" sovereign rating of the United States with a stable outlook. Heilongjiang adjusted the subsidy policy for the replacement of consumer goods. Starting from August 23, subsidies for automobile replacement are divided into three levels, with an additional 0.2 million yuan for new energy vehicles. In July, the national general public budget revenue was 202.73 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%, the highest increase this year. The tax revenue was 180.18 billion yuan, an increase of 5%. In the first seven months of this year, the national general public budget revenue was 1,358.39 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%, with the cumulative increase turning positive for the first time; the expenditure was 1,607.37 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomic sentiment is warming, market risk appetite is rising, and there is potential for macro - micro resonance. Copper prices are expected to oscillate upwards with a higher center of gravity. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. In the long - term, copper is bullish due to its status as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game, tight copper concentrate supply, and the booming green copper demand. The focus range for SHFE copper is [78,000, 81,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [9,650, 9,950] US dollars/ton [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Viewpoint Summary - The core view is that with warming macro sentiment and rising market risk appetite, there may be macro - micro resonance, and copper prices will rise with a higher center of gravity. It is advisable to try long positions on dips. The strategy outlook is that although US PPI exceeds expectations and weakens the Fed's rate - cut intensity, the Fed's rate - cut path in September is almost certain. The short - term A - share slow - bull market and commodity anti - involution restlessness in China have increased market risk appetite. Fundamentally, overseas copper mine disruptions coexist with high domestic refined copper production, and the expectation of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is fermenting, with tight domestic social inventories supporting copper prices. In the long - term, copper is promising. The operation strategy is to try long positions on dips [6]. 2. Macroeconomic - **Policy Boosting Consumption**: Three departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", and nine departments including the Ministry of Finance issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Service Industry Business Entities' Loans". The central bank and other four departments explained these two interest - subsidy policies, which will form a "combination punch" with other policies. In 2025, 188 billion yuan of investment subsidies for equipment renewal supported by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds have been allocated, driving total investment of over 1 trillion yuan. The short - term A - share slow - bull market has increased market risk appetite [8]. - **Sino - US Trade Relations**: The Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks issued a joint statement, suspending 24% tariffs for another 90 days. However, the US Congress passed the "2025 Sanctions Against Russia Act", and there are concerns about Sino - US trade relations [9]. - **US Economic Data**: US July PPI data exceeded expectations, weakening the Fed's rate - cut intensity in September. There are differences within the Fed on the rate - cut rhythm. The US dollar index rebounded, and commodities were slightly pressured [10][12]. - **China's Macroeconomic Data**: From January to July, China's industrial added value, manufacturing investment, and social consumption showed different trends. In July, social financing performed well, but credit performance was average [15]. - **US Copper Industry Dilemma**: The US has a high dependence on copper imports. Trump plans to reduce the import dependence from 45% to 30% by 2035. The short - term impact of US copper tariff policies on China's copper product exports is limited [19]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Price Performance**: SHFE copper is stronger than overseas copper. The COMEX - LME copper price spread has returned to the normal historical range. LME copper has a negative basis, and domestic electrolytic copper spot has a positive basis [33]. - **Copper Concentrate Supply**: There have been disruptions in copper concentrate supply overseas, but the domestic supply situation has improved marginally. The copper concentrate TC has increased [40]. - **Crude Copper and Scrap Copper Market**: The supply of crude copper and scrap copper is tight, and the price difference between refined and scrap copper has converged, with a weak scrap copper substitution effect [45]. - **Refined Copper Supply and Demand**: The supply of smelters has high elasticity, and the refined copper supply and demand are in a tight balance throughout the year. The production of electrolytic copper may decline in the future due to increased smelter maintenance [50]. - **Downstream Demand**: Currently in the traditional consumption off - season, the downstream processing enterprises' operation rate is weak. However, terminal power and new - energy vehicle demand show resilience [55][60]. - **Inventory Situation**: Overseas copper inventory accumulation has slowed down, while domestic copper social inventory is tight, at a historically low level [70]. - **Speculative Positions**: Speculative net long positions have declined, and the net capital of SHFE copper positions has flowed out [79]. 4. Summary and Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: The Sino - US economic and trade talks and US CPI data initially boosted market confidence, but the US July PPI exceeded expectations, weakening the Fed's rate - cut intensity and pressuring copper prices. China's July social financing was good, but credit was average. The short - term A - share slow - bull market has increased market risk appetite [81]. - **Fundamental - aspect**: Copper concentrate supply has improved marginally, but refined copper production may decline in the future. Currently in the off - season, downstream demand is weak, but it is expected to pick up in the peak season. Overseas inventory accumulation has slowed, and domestic inventory is tight, with power and automotive demand performing well, and the annual copper supply - demand in a tight balance [81]. - **Overall Strategy**: Although the US PPI weakens the Fed's rate - cut intensity, the Fed's rate - cut path in September is almost certain. It is recommended to try long positions on dips, and enterprises should wait for high - level opportunities for selling hedging. In the long - term, copper is bullish [82].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 79,380.00 | +360.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,845.50 | +5.00↑ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 0.00 | +60.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 158,877.00 | +2833.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | 4,902.00 | +5608.00↑ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 155,000.00 | -700.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 81,933.00 | +9390.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 11,600.00 | -375.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 22,800.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 79,475.00 | +325.00↑ 长江有色市 ...