铜行业专题：勘探降速 vs 需求升浪，构筑"赤金时代" 复盘：铜定价逐步向供需基本面逻辑切换。2025 年铜价定价逻辑从宏观 经济因素主导逐步转向供需基本面的驱动。随着全球主要经济体加息周期 结束，货币政策对大宗商品价格的影响或逐渐淡化，铜价定价框架重新转 向商品供需面逻辑。2024 年上半年铜价受宏观宽松预期、矿端供给扰动 以及需求边际扩张预期的推动而上涨，但下半年随着美联储降息落地后宏 观利好逐步被消化，加之需求端表现平淡，铜价呈现冲高回落趋势。尽管 供应端紧张局面持续，但下游企业对高价铜采购意愿减弱，市场观望情绪 浓厚。未来，铜价走势将受到宏观政策与供需基本面的双重影响，需求改 善信号和政策刺激将成为价格突破的关键。整体来看，2024 年全年铜价 在宏观与基本面因素的交替作用下呈现震荡走势，但进入 2025 年后，随 着供需矛盾的进一步激化，铜价或将更加依赖于基本面的改善。 证券研究报告 | 行业专题研究 gszqdatemark 2025 04 30 年 月 日 工业金属 铜供给：矿端增速放缓，冶炼端静待产能出清。全球铜矿供给格局仍以拉 丁美洲为主导，智利和秘鲁占据核心地位。但铜产量增长放缓；对比来看 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pricing logic of copper, highlighting the divergence between copper prices and macroeconomic expectations, particularly in relation to U.S. interest rate cuts and overall commodity trends [3][4]. Group 1: Copper Pricing Dynamics - Copper prices have shown strong performance since the beginning of the year, contrary to the declining expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and the overall downward trend in commodities [3]. - The pricing of copper can be broken down into fundamental aspects, such as supply disruptions (e.g., strikes, natural disasters) and macroeconomic factors, which are sensitive to global inflation expectations and economic cycles [4]. - Recent upward pricing trends are linked to expectations of U.S. re-inflation and geopolitical events affecting supply, particularly in regions like the Democratic Republic of Congo [7][11]. Group 2: Market Inventory and Demand - The anticipation of a 25% tariff increase has led to significant inventory movements, with LME copper stocks declining and Comex copper inventories increasing from approximately 20,000 tons to over 100,000 tons since August 2024 [9]. - The strong price performance of copper is primarily driven by industrial demand rather than speculative positions, indicating that the underlying industrial demand is the key factor in the current price rally [11]. - The U.S. demand for copper is expected to decline as tariffs are implemented, which may lead to a decrease in inventory replenishment and production activity [13]. Group 3: Future Supply and Demand Outlook - Global refined copper production is projected to reach 29.66 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.38%, with Chile maintaining high production levels [17]. - Demand for copper in renewable energy sectors, such as solar and wind, is expected to rise significantly, from 1.8 million tons in 2020 to 4.4 million tons by 2029 [18]. - However, challenges such as low profitability in low-carbon energy development and a shift in investment towards aluminum for high-voltage transmission lines may impact future copper demand [22]. Group 4: Long-term Considerations - The article suggests caution regarding the current bullish sentiment in the copper market, as the actual supply growth is the most reliable change, while future demand may be vulnerable due to reliance on subsidy policies [27]. - The potential for a demand vacuum following the implementation of tariffs could lead to a retraction in copper prices, despite short-term price support from speculative trading [26].