Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration, highlighting the potential impacts on macroeconomic conditions, financial markets, and various commodity sectors, particularly in the context of rising inflation and economic slowdown [3][4][5]. Group 1: Macroeconomic and Financial Market Impacts - The overall policy is hawkish but includes some buffer measures, such as exemptions for certain goods and a staggered implementation timeline [5]. - The market reaction to the announcement included declines in U.S. stock futures, lower U.S. Treasury yields, depreciation of the offshore RMB, and fluctuations in gold prices [5]. - The shift towards a stagflation trading logic is noted, with high tariffs and potential retaliatory measures exacerbating the macroeconomic landscape of "slowing growth + stubborn inflation" [5][6]. - The U.S. may consider further tax cuts and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to alleviate economic pressure [6]. Group 2: Commodity Market Impacts Non-ferrous and Precious Metals - The unexpected tariffs signify an acceleration of the de-globalization process, impacting both domestic and global demand levels [10]. - Copper is expected to remain supported due to its exemption from tariffs, while aluminum faces significant import reliance and high tariffs already imposed [11]. - Gold has been exempted from tariffs, but market volatility is anticipated due to economic uncertainties [13]. Energy - The tariff measures do not apply to imported crude oil and natural gas, mitigating potential cost increases for energy imports [15]. - The overall impact on oil demand is expected to be negative due to heightened global economic pressures from the trade war [16]. Chemicals - The tariffs are likely to negatively impact China's chemical exports, particularly in textiles and plastics, as the U.S. is a major market [22][24]. - The overall sentiment in the chemical sector is bearish, with potential declines in exports to the U.S. and increased costs for producers [26]. Black Metals - China's steel exports to the U.S. are minimal, but indirect impacts through third-party countries could affect pricing and demand [28]. - The overall steel market is expected to face pressure from U.S. tariffs, particularly on hot-rolled products [28]. Agricultural Products - The tariffs primarily affect U.S. corn exports, with minimal impact on China's domestic corn prices due to self-sufficiency [29]. - China's soybean imports are increasingly sourced from Brazil, reducing the impact of U.S. tariffs on supply chains [30]. - The tariffs on canola oil and palm oil are expected to create supply chain disruptions and price volatility in the respective markets [31][32]. Soft Commodities - The cotton market is likely to face downward pressure due to reduced competitiveness in textile exports to the U.S. [35][36]. - The rubber market may also experience negative impacts from reduced tire exports to the U.S. [37].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the pricing logic of copper, highlighting the divergence between copper prices and macroeconomic expectations, particularly in relation to U.S. interest rate cuts and overall commodity trends [3][4]. Group 1: Copper Pricing Dynamics - Copper prices have shown strong performance since the beginning of the year, contrary to the declining expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and the overall downward trend in commodities [3]. - The pricing of copper can be broken down into fundamental aspects, such as supply disruptions (e.g., strikes, natural disasters) and macroeconomic factors, which are sensitive to global inflation expectations and economic cycles [4]. - Recent upward pricing trends are linked to expectations of U.S. re-inflation and geopolitical events affecting supply, particularly in regions like the Democratic Republic of Congo [7][11]. Group 2: Market Inventory and Demand - The anticipation of a 25% tariff increase has led to significant inventory movements, with LME copper stocks declining and Comex copper inventories increasing from approximately 20,000 tons to over 100,000 tons since August 2024 [9]. - The strong price performance of copper is primarily driven by industrial demand rather than speculative positions, indicating that the underlying industrial demand is the key factor in the current price rally [11]. - The U.S. demand for copper is expected to decline as tariffs are implemented, which may lead to a decrease in inventory replenishment and production activity [13]. Group 3: Future Supply and Demand Outlook - Global refined copper production is projected to reach 29.66 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.38%, with Chile maintaining high production levels [17]. - Demand for copper in renewable energy sectors, such as solar and wind, is expected to rise significantly, from 1.8 million tons in 2020 to 4.4 million tons by 2029 [18]. - However, challenges such as low profitability in low-carbon energy development and a shift in investment towards aluminum for high-voltage transmission lines may impact future copper demand [22]. Group 4: Long-term Considerations - The article suggests caution regarding the current bullish sentiment in the copper market, as the actual supply growth is the most reliable change, while future demand may be vulnerable due to reliance on subsidy policies [27]. - The potential for a demand vacuum following the implementation of tariffs could lead to a retraction in copper prices, despite short-term price support from speculative trading [26].