Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has announced a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives, effective August 1, which has led to a significant drop in copper prices on the COMEX, highlighting the unexpected nature of the policy and its impact on the market [3][9]. Group 1: Tariff Impact - The 50% tariff applies to copper semi-finished products such as copper pipes, wires, rods, and sheets, as well as high-copper-content derivatives like fittings and electrical components, while excluding copper ore, concentrates, and cathodes [9][10]. - Following the announcement, COMEX copper futures prices fell by over 18% in a single day, marking the largest single-day drop in history [3][5]. - The market had anticipated a broader application of tariffs, leading to a miscalculation by major investment banks like Goldman Sachs, which had advised clients to buy call options on copper futures prior to the announcement [3][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The COMEX-LME (London Metal Exchange) copper premium rose from a neutral position to approximately 30% before the tariff announcement, driven by speculation about the tariffs [5][10]. - After the tariff announcement, the COMEX copper premium returned to a neutral position, indicating a significant market correction [5][10]. - Investors who had taken long positions in copper futures prior to the announcement faced substantial losses due to the rapid price decline [6][7]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The U.S. has a significant annual copper consumption of approximately 1.7 million tons, with a production shortfall of about 770,000 tons, necessitating imports primarily from Chile, Canada, and Mexico [9][10]. - The U.S. copper import policy aims to protect domestic production capabilities, as the country has limited smelting capacity, producing only about 3.3% of global refined copper [10][11]. - Analysts suggest that the copper market will need to adjust to the new tariff environment, with potential long-term implications for supply and demand dynamics, particularly as the market digests the impact of the tariffs [13][14]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the main factors influencing copper prices in the second half of the year will include copper concentrate shortages, rising raw material costs, and the potential for a U.S. interest rate cut [13][14]. - The copper market is expected to return to fundamental supply and demand considerations, with the recent tariff policy's negative impact largely absorbed by the market [14]. - There is a recommendation for investors to consider trading in less policy-affected markets like LME and SHFE (Shanghai Futures Exchange) copper futures, as the long-term upward trend in copper prices remains intact despite short-term volatility [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Insights - The copper pricing mechanism is shifting from macroeconomic factors to supply-demand fundamentals, with expectations of price fluctuations in 2024 and a potential increase in 2025 due to intensified supply-demand conflicts [1][11]. - Global copper supply is primarily dominated by Latin America, particularly Chile and Peru, but growth in copper production is slowing down, with significant investments in exploration declining [2][16]. - Demand for copper is expected to remain robust, driven by sectors such as power infrastructure, electric vehicles, and home appliances, despite some downward pressure from the real estate sector [3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Copper Pricing Dynamics - The copper price in 2024 is expected to be influenced by macroeconomic easing and supply disruptions, leading to a volatile market [1][11]. - The second half of 2024 may see a price correction as macroeconomic benefits are absorbed and demand remains subdued [12]. 2. Copper Supply - The global copper mining supply is primarily concentrated in Latin America, with Chile and Peru holding significant reserves [2][16]. - The growth rate of copper mining investments is slowing, indicating a tightening supply trend in the long term [2][16]. - Key mining projects in Africa and Asia may face delays due to geopolitical risks and stricter environmental regulations [2]. 3. Copper Demand - Global refined copper consumption is steadily increasing, with strong demand from the power construction and new energy vehicle sectors [3][12]. - The demand for copper is expected to remain high due to ongoing investments in electric grid upgrades and renewable energy installations [3][12]. - Future demand dynamics will depend on policy developments and the evolution of the industrial chain [3][12]. 4. Key Investment Targets - Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are highlighted as key investment targets due to their growth potential and strong performance in the copper sector [4].