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20251031申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251031
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 03:22
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Likely to be strong [2] - Zinc: Likely to fluctuate within a range [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The copper price closed lower at night. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Grid investment maintains positive growth, while power source investment slows down. Automobile production and sales show positive growth, household appliance production scheduling shows negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for the copper price. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc: The zinc price closed higher at night. The processing fee for zinc concentrates has generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. The weekly inventory of galvanized sheets has increased. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales show positive growth, household appliance production scheduling shows negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Due to the different inventory situations at home and abroad, the domestic zinc price may be weaker than the foreign one. Overall, the supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious, and it may fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - Market situation: Night - time copper price closed lower. Concentrate supply is tight, smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output is growing. Grid investment is growing, power source investment is slowing, automobile production and sales are positive, household appliance production scheduling is negative, and real estate is weak. The Indonesian mine accident may cause a global copper supply - demand gap [2]. - Price trend: Likely to be strong [2]. - Suggestion: Monitor changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - Market situation: Night - time zinc price closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have increased, smelting profits are positive, and smelting output is expected to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly. Infrastructure investment growth is slowing, automobile production and sales are positive, household appliance production scheduling is negative, and real estate is weak. Domestic and foreign inventory situations differ [2]. - Price trend: Likely to fluctuate within a range [2]. - Suggestion: Monitor changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data | Variety | Domestic Previous - Day Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous - Day LME 3 - Month Futures Closing Price (US dollars/ton) | LME Spot Premium/Discount (US dollars/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 87,910 | - 90 | 10,930 | - 19.66 | 135,350 | 775 | | Aluminum | 21,230 | - 10 | 2,870 | - 0.99 | 462,750 | - 2,900 | | Zinc | 22,325 | - 75 | 3,045 | 132.96 | 35,200 | - 50 | | Nickel | 120,660 | - 1,710 | 15,250 | - 203.99 | 251,706 | 270 | | Lead | 17,360 | - 210 | 2,022 | - 35.12 | 224,875 | - 4,800 | | Tin | 283,040 | 1,500 | 35,720 | 10.02 | 2,830 | 130 | [2]