20251127申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 铜： 可能偏强 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 可能区间波动 锌： | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，但冶 炼产量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电网投资延续正增长，电源投资 | | | 铜 | 放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。印尼矿难大概率 | 可能偏强 | | | 导致全球铜供求转向缺口，长期支撑铜价。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需 | | | | 求等变化。动。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，但冶炼产量延 | | | 锌 | 续增长。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽车 产销正增长；家电产量负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌供求总体差异不明显，总 | 可能区间波 动 | | | 体可能区间波 | | | | 分析师：李野 | | | | 从业资格号：F0285557 | | | | 交易咨询号：Z0002369 | | | | 邮箱：l ...

20251126申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 铜： 可能偏强 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 锌： 可能区间波动 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，但冶 炼产量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电网投资延续正增长，电源投资 | | | 铜 | 放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。印尼矿难大概率 导致全球铜供求转向缺口，长期支撑铜价。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需 | 可能偏强 | | | 求等变化。动。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，但冶炼产量 延续增长。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽 | 可能区间波 | | 锌 | 车产销正增长；家电产量负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌供求总体差异不明显， | 动 | | | 总体可能区间波 | | | | 分析师：李野 | | | | 从业资格号：F0285557 | | | | 交易咨询号：Z0002369 | | | | 邮箱：liye@syw ...

20251125申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 铜： 可能偏强 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 可能区间波动 锌： | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，但冶 炼产量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电网投资延续正增长，电源投资 | | | 铜 | 放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。印尼矿难大概率 | 可能偏强 | | | 导致全球铜供求转向缺口，长期支撑铜价。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需 求等变化。动。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，但冶炼产量 | | | | 延续增长。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽 | 可能区间波 | | 锌 | 车产销正增长；家电产量负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌供求总体差异不明显， | 动 | | | 总体可能区间波 | | | | 分析师：李野 | | | | 从业资格号：F0285557 | | | | 交易咨询号：Z0002369 | | | | 邮箱： ...

20251121申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 铜： 可能偏强 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 锌： 可能区间波动 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，但冶 炼产量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电网投资延续正增长，电源投资 | | | 铜 | 放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。印尼矿难大概率 | 可能偏强 | | | 导致全球铜供求转向缺口，长期支撑铜价。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需 | | | | 求等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，但冶炼产量 | | | 锌 | 延续增长。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽 | 可能区间波 | | | 车产销正增长；家电产量负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌供求总体差异不明显， | 动 | | | 总体可能区间波动。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | | | 分析师：李野 | | | | 从业资格号：F0285557 | | | | 交易咨询号：Z0002369 | | ...

本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 20251124申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 铜： 可能偏强 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 锌： 可能区间波动 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：周末夜盘铜价收涨。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘， 但冶炼产量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电网投资延续正增长，电源 | | | 铜 | 投资放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。印尼矿难大 | 可能偏强 | | | 概率导致全球铜供求转向缺口，长期支撑铜价。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下 | | | | 游需求等变化。动。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | | | 锌：周末夜盘锌价收低。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，但冶炼 产量延续增长。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋 | 可能区间波 | | 锌 | 缓，汽车产销正增长； ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Likely to be strong [2] - Zinc: Likely to fluctuate within a range [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper: Night trading saw a rise in copper prices. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Grid investment maintains positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales show positive growth, home appliance production scheduling shows negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. An Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - Zinc: Night trading saw a decline in zinc prices. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventories are generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales show positive growth, home appliance production shows negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, and it is likely to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 86,080 yuan/ton; domestic basis: 50 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 10,803 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 33.13 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 140,500 tons; LME inventory daily change: 4,450 tons [2] Aluminum - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 21,525 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 20 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 2,815 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 32.88 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 548,075 tons; LME inventory daily change: - 2,125 tons [2] Zinc - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 22,420 yuan/ton; domestic basis: 75 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 2,990 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: 152.14 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 43,525 tons; LME inventory daily change: 3,550 tons [2] Nickel - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 115,650 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 3,120 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 14,640 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 197.66 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 257,832 tons; LME inventory daily change: 138 tons [2] Lead - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 17,230 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 140 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 2,015 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 27.39 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 264,800 tons; LME inventory daily change: - 1,325 tons [2] Tin - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 293,370 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 1,950 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 36,945 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: 100.00 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 3,055 tons; LME inventory daily change: 0 tons [2]

20251119申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 铜： 可能偏强 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 锌： 可能区间波动 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，但冶 炼产量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电网投资延续正增长，电源投资 | | | 铜 | 放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。印尼矿难大概率 | 可能偏强 | | | 导致全球铜供求转向缺口，长期支撑铜价。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需 | | | | 求等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，但冶炼产量 | | | 锌 | 延续增长。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽 | 可能区间波 | | | 车产销正增长；家电产量负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌供求总体差异不明显， | 动 | | | 总体可能区间波动。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | | | 分析师：李野 | | | | 从业资格号：F0285557 | | | | 交易咨询号：Z0002369 | | ...

20251118申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 铜： 可能偏强 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 锌： 可能区间波动 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，但冶 炼产量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电网投资延续正增长，电源投资 | | | 铜 | 放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。印尼矿难大概率 | 可能偏强 | | | 导致全球铜供求转向缺口，长期支撑铜价。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需 | | | | 求等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，但冶炼产量 | | | | 延续增长。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽 | 可能区间波 | | 锌 | 车产销正增长；家电产量负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌供求总体差异不明显， | 动 | | | 总体可能区间波动。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | | | 分析师：李野 | | | | 从业资格号：F0285557 | | | | 交易咨询号：Z0002369 | | ...

20251117申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 铜： 可能偏强 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 锌： 可能区间波动 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：周末夜盘铜价收低。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘， 但冶炼产量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电网投资延续正增长，电源 | | | 铜 | 投资放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。印尼矿难大 | 可能偏强 | | | 概率导致全球铜供求转向缺口，长期支撑铜价。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下 | | | | 游需求等变化。 | | | | 锌：周末夜盘锌价收涨。锌精矿加工费尚回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，但冶 | | | | 炼产量延续增长。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋 | 可能区间波 | | 锌 | 缓，汽车产销正增长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。由于国内外库存状 | 动 | | | 况迥异，国内锌价可能弱于国外。锌供求总体差异不明显，总体可能区间波 | | | | 动。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | | | 分析师：李野 | | | | 从业资格 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Likely to be strong [2] - Zinc: Likely to fluctuate within a range [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The copper price closed lower at night. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Grid investment maintains positive growth, while power source investment slows down. Automobile production and sales show positive growth, household appliance production scheduling shows negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for the copper price. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc: The zinc price closed higher at night. The processing fee for zinc concentrates has generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. The weekly inventory of galvanized sheets has increased. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales show positive growth, household appliance production scheduling shows negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Due to the different inventory situations at home and abroad, the domestic zinc price may be weaker than the foreign one. Overall, the supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious, and it may fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - Market situation: Night - time copper price closed lower. Concentrate supply is tight, smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output is growing. Grid investment is growing, power source investment is slowing, automobile production and sales are positive, household appliance production scheduling is negative, and real estate is weak. The Indonesian mine accident may cause a global copper supply - demand gap [2]. - Price trend: Likely to be strong [2]. - Suggestion: Monitor changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - Market situation: Night - time zinc price closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have increased, smelting profits are positive, and smelting output is expected to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly. Infrastructure investment growth is slowing, automobile production and sales are positive, household appliance production scheduling is negative, and real estate is weak. Domestic and foreign inventory situations differ [2]. - Price trend: Likely to fluctuate within a range [2]. - Suggestion: Monitor changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data | Variety | Domestic Previous - Day Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous - Day LME 3 - Month Futures Closing Price (US dollars/ton) | LME Spot Premium/Discount (US dollars/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 87,910 | - 90 | 10,930 | - 19.66 | 135,350 | 775 | | Aluminum | 21,230 | - 10 | 2,870 | - 0.99 | 462,750 | - 2,900 | | Zinc | 22,325 | - 75 | 3,045 | 132.96 | 35,200 | - 50 | | Nickel | 120,660 | - 1,710 | 15,250 | - 203.99 | 251,706 | 270 | | Lead | 17,360 | - 210 | 2,022 | - 35.12 | 224,875 | - 4,800 | | Tin | 283,040 | 1,500 | 35,720 | 10.02 | 2,830 | 130 | [2]