Group 1 - Copper stocks generally rose, with China Nonferrous Mining (01258) up 6.45% to HKD 15.34, Jiangxi Copper (00358) up 4.1% to HKD 44.2, and Minmetals Resources (01208) up 2.98% to HKD 9.32 [1] - On January 6, London copper prices increased, surpassing USD 13,100, reaching a new high [1] - Capstone, a Canadian mining company, announced a strike at its Manto Verde copper-gold mine in Chile starting January 2, which adds supply risk to an already tight market [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities predicts a global copper market shortfall of over 100,000 tons by 2026, despite ongoing expectations regarding U.S. copper tariffs [1] - The price difference between COMEX and LME copper remains at USD 100 per ton, encouraging traders to transport refined copper to the U.S., leading to continued supply tightness in non-U.S. regions [1] - The combination of total shortfall and regional mismatches is driving copper prices to continually refresh historical highs [1]

Group 1 - UBS reports that FCX has announced a temporary production halt at the Grasberg mine due to a mining accident, which is expected to lead to a larger-than-expected decline in copper production for the next two years, exacerbating the anticipated supply gap in the global copper market by 2026 [1] - The Grasberg mine, which is the second-largest copper mine globally, experienced an influx of approximately 800,000 tons of wet material, affecting multiple operational levels and damaging infrastructure in other production areas [1] - FCX's preliminary assessment indicates that production will be delayed, with only minimal output and sales expected in Q4 2025, and a phased restart planned for 2026, resulting in an estimated 35% reduction in copper output compared to previous guidance [1] Group 2 - UBS has adjusted its forecast for global mine supply growth in 2026 from approximately 2% (500,000 tons) to about 1% (below 250,000 tons) due to the downward revision of Grasberg's guidance and other supply disruptions [2] - The report highlights that refined copper supply growth has consistently outpaced mine supply growth over the past 2-3 years, leading to a tightening of the copper concentrate and scrap market, while delaying the tightening of the refined market [2] - UBS expects refined copper demand to grow by about 3% in 2026, while supply growth will be below 1%, resulting in a supply gap and continued inventory decline, supporting an upward trend in copper prices [3]