ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 07 月 11 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（7.7-7.11） 稳就业新政出台，美国关税隐忧再现 摘要 [Table_Summary] 一周大事记 国内：南向通扩容助人民币国际化，多项稳就业举措出台。7月 7日，国家外 汇管理局统计数据显示：截至 6月末，外汇储备创近十年新高，央行连续 8个 月增持黄金，未来央行或继续增持黄金，推动我国国际储备资产多元化，在增 强风险防御能力的同时，为推进人民币国际化创造有利条件；8 日，中国人民 银行和香港金管局宣布了数项债券通优化扩容的措施，这将推动人民币国际化 进程，并促进境内债券市场基础设施与国际接轨，助力金融市场协同发展；9 日，国务院新闻办公室举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题首场新闻 发布会，"十四五"规划确定的战略任务全面落地，内需始终是中国经济发展 的主动力和稳定锚；同日，国务院办公厅印发《关于进一步加大稳就业政策支 持力度的通知》，从 7个方面提出政策举措，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、 稳预期，推动经济高质量发展。 海外：美国关税再生波澜，选举预期引发日债波动。当地时间 7月 7 ...

证券代码：000737 证券简称：北方铜业 北方铜业股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 2 6、公司如何开展套期保值？ 公司根据原料来源不同制定相应的套期保值方案。其中：外 购铜原料根据原料进厂时间、数量、作价方式、加工费、期间费 用等因素确定保值价位、保值合约月份、头寸布置等；自产铜根 据产量安排、成本、生产周期、目标利润等因素确定保值价位、 保值合约月份、保值比例等。 7、近期铜冶炼加工费价格是什么情况，公司长单占比如何？ 目前，铜冶炼加工费持续低迷，给公司带来经营压力。公司 铜精矿采购采用长单、现货模式，公司长期以来与各大供应商保 持稳定的合作关系，积极与供应商谈判，努力稳定长单供应量， 争取保障生产有序开展。 关于本次活动是 否涉及应披露重 大信息的说明 无 附件清单（如有） 无 日期 2025 年 7 月 10 日-7 月 11 日 编号：2025-05 3 | 投资者关系 | □特定对象调研□分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 活动类别 | □媒体采访□业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会□路演活动 | | | 现场参观 | | | □其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） | | 参与单位 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 78,600.00 | +200.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,664.00 | +33.50↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 140.00 | -60.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 181,068.00 | -12931.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | 9,545.00 | -5230.00↓ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 107,125.00 | +4625.00↑ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 84,589.00 | +3039.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 38,250.00 | +1150.00↑ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 21,729.00 | -2856.00↓ | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | 78,615.00 | -575.00↓ ...

智利总统：我们正在等待美国关于铜关税的官方沟通，以及是否包括阴极铜。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the lithium market is not experiencing severe oversupply as suggested by various domestic institutions, while the copper market is facing a gradual supply shortage. The analysis indicates that the inventory levels and consumption rates for both metals do not support the claims of significant oversupply in lithium [1][24]. Lithium Market Analysis - In 2024, the global consumption of lithium batteries is projected to be 1545 GWh, requiring approximately 105,000 tons of lithium carbonate. Considering a production yield of 90% and additional factors, the actual consumption is estimated at 114,130 tons [2]. - The total lithium carbonate consumption, including traditional industry usage, is expected to reach 128,000 tons, while the total supply is projected at 136,700 tons, resulting in a surplus of 8,700 tons, which equates to an oversupply ratio of 6.36% [3][4]. Copper Market Analysis - The consumption of cathode copper in 2024 is estimated at 2,733,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.92%. The projected surplus for copper is approximately 46,900 tons, leading to an oversupply ratio of 1.72% [4][5]. Inventory Situation - The article details the inventory levels across different stages of the mining and processing supply chain for both lithium and copper. For copper, the total inventory is around 720,000 to 750,000 tons, which translates to approximately 25.33 days of consumption [9][10]. - In contrast, lithium inventory is estimated at 70,000 to 80,000 tons, corresponding to about 19.14 days of consumption, indicating a tighter supply compared to copper [10]. Smelting and Processing Inventory - In the smelting stage, lithium carbonate inventory is reported at 59,032 tons, equating to 12 days of consumption, while copper smelting inventory stands at approximately 95,700 tons, also representing about 12.76 days of consumption [12][13]. - The processing stage shows lithium inventory at 40,635 tons, which is about 8.3 days of consumption, while copper processing inventory is estimated at 120,000 to 150,000 tons, translating to 18 days of consumption [16][17]. Trade and Other Inventories - Lithium trade and battery inventories are around 37,170 tons, corresponding to 7.6 days of consumption, while copper trade inventories are estimated at 60,000 tons, equating to 8 days of consumption [19][20]. - The article notes a significant decline in lithium warehouse receipts, dropping from approximately 40,000 tons to 15,555 tons, a decrease of 61%, indicating tightening supply conditions [21]. Conclusion - The analysis concludes that lithium inventory levels are consistently lower than those of copper across various stages, challenging the narrative of severe oversupply in the lithium market. The article criticizes the methodology used by institutions to assess inventory levels and suggests that a more nuanced understanding of supply and demand dynamics is necessary [24][25]. - The article also highlights that while lithium experienced a surplus of 5-6% last year, copper had a surplus of only 1-2%, indicating a more favorable outlook for copper moving forward [26][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [12]. Core Views - The gold market is expected to maintain an upward trend due to the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cut cycle [12]. - Short-term demand for copper and aluminum may weaken, but long-term supply-demand dynamics are expected to remain tight [12]. - Tin prices are supported by tight supply, while antimony prices are expected to remain weak in the short term but are supported by long-term supply constraints [12]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) saw a 6.3% increase over one month, 8.6% over three months, and 16.7% over twelve months, outperforming the CSI 300 index [3][21]. Gold Market - The average gold price in London was $3,331.90 per ounce, up 1.83% from the previous week [32]. - The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 230,000 ounces to 30.47 million ounces [33]. Copper Market - LME copper closed at $9,880 per ton, a 0.25% increase from the previous week, while SHFE copper closed at 79,990 yuan per ton, a 0.11% decrease [41]. - Domestic copper social inventory was reported at 131,800 tons, a 0.17% increase from the previous week [41]. Aluminum Market - Domestic electrolytic aluminum price was 20,750 yuan per ton, down 0.91% from the previous week [42]. - The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises was reported at 49.5%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points [42]. Tin Market - Domestic refined tin price was 267,820 yuan per ton, down 0.88% from the previous week [43]. - LME tin inventory decreased by 65 tons to 2,110 tons [43]. Antimony Market - Domestic antimony ingot price was 185,500 yuan per ton, down 2.11% from the previous week [43]. Recommended Stocks - Gold industry recommendations include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold [12]. - Copper industry recommendations include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining [12]. - Aluminum industry recommendations include Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [12]. - Tin industry recommendations include Xiyang Silver Tin and Huaxi Nonferrous [12].

2025.07.07-07.11 工业硅、碳酸锂 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 工业硅期货 趋势判断逻辑 2 上周工业硅现货市场价格以小幅上涨为主，截至7月3日新疆地区421#价格 8450元/吨，云南地区421#价格9900元/吨，四川地区421#价格9600元/吨。 长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示工业硅价格日线处在上升通道中。 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 工业硅期货目前处于震荡寻底过程中。 中线趋势判断 1 工业硅2509期货价格波动区间7000—8600，建议逢低少量做多。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 震荡偏强走势，可考虑买入看涨期权。 n 本周策略建议 工业硅价格寻底震荡运行，可考虑回调逢低少量做多。 相关数据情况 截止至2024年04月19日，上海期货交易所阴极铜库存为300,045吨，较上一周增加322吨。从季节性角度分析，当前库存较近五年相比维持在较高水平。 SHF阴极铜库存走势 SHF阴极铜库存季节性分析 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 截止至20 ...

长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 徐佳 道氏技术（300409.SZ）大手笔海外扩产，保障资源供应。 7月3日晚间，道氏技术公告，拟约11.83亿元在刚果（金）投资建设年产30kt阴极铜湿法冶炼厂项目。 对于此次投资事项，道氏技术称，是基于公司在刚果（金）的长远战略布局。该地区是世界重要的铜、 钴资源富集区，在此建设冶炼厂，有利于保障公司扩产后的原料供应，提高公司原料供应的稳定性和安 全性。 道氏技术进一步表示，通过建设年产30kt阴极铜湿法冶炼厂项目，可有效扩张公司生产规模，增强战略 资源板块的生产能力。同时，借助湿法冶炼工艺技术优势和当地资源禀赋，实现原材料采购及加工成本 的有效控制，构建更具韧性的成本管控体系，提升规模效应。随着全球新能源产业快速发展，铜、钴市 场需求持续增长，项目投产后，可进一步提升公司在全球铜、钴产品市场中的竞争力与市场份额。 道氏技术称，此举可有效扩张公司生产规模，增强战略资源板块的生产能力。 长江商报记者发现，从陶瓷行业拓展到新材料行业，道氏技术已形成"碳材料+锂电材料+陶瓷材料+战 略资源"的新格局，其中战略资源业务主要在刚果（金）开展。近年来，公司积极扩产，2024年其阴极 铜产 ...

[Table_Summary] 一周大事记 国内：6月财新 PMI 重回扩张区间，海洋经济迎政策利好。6 月 30 日，财政 部、国家税务总局、商务部发布《关于境外投资者以分配利润直接投资税收抵 免政策的公告》，有助于引导外资更多流向高新技术等产业，稳定扩大外资规 模；7月 1日，中国 6月财新制造业 PMI录得 50.4，高于上月 2.1个百分点， 重回扩张区间，市场竞争加剧和外部因素不确定性叠加，分项数据出现分化； 同日，习近平主持召开中央财经委员会第六次会议，研究纵深推进全国统一大 市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题，后续 "反内卷" 力度有望进一步加 大，同时建议关注深海机器人、海工装备、深海作业等相关行业；2 日，国家 发展改革委近日安排超 3000亿元支持 2025年第三批"两重"建设项目，"两 重" 建设有望在下半年接力"两新"成为支撑内需稳定增长的重要力量。 ooo[Table_ReportInfo] 2025 年 07 月 04 日 证券研究报告•宏观定期报告 宏观周报（6.30-7.4） "反内卷"信号释放，美国非农又超预期 摘要 海外：大美丽法案通过国会，香港金管局买入港元。当地时间 6 ...

Domestic News - The State Council has issued a notice to replicate and promote 77 pilot measures from the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, which will release institutional innovation dividends covering seven areas including service trade and goods trade [2][3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need for lawful and regulated governance in the photovoltaic industry to eliminate low-price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity [3] - The Ministry of Commerce announced the formal launch of second-hand car export business nationwide, with requirements and procedures to be jointly developed by relevant departments by February 2024 [3] - The Ministry of Emergency Management has indicated that July marks the full onset of the flood season in China, with increased risks of natural disasters, particularly in northern regions [3] - The National Medical Products Administration has released measures to optimize the supervision of high-end medical device innovation, including special approval procedures and support policies for products based on brain-computer interface technology [3] - The China Passenger Car Association reported that retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.071 million units in June, a year-on-year increase of 25%, with a cumulative retail of 5.429 million units in 2023, up 32% [3] - Anhui Wenti Quantum Technology Co., Ltd. announced the successful development of China's first chip-level post-quantum password card, marking a breakthrough in the engineering application of quantum security technology [3] International News - The U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill with a vote of 218 to 214, which is set to be signed by President Trump on July 4 [5] - The U.S. economy added 147,000 jobs in June, exceeding expectations of 117,500, with the unemployment rate dropping from 4.2% in May to 4.1% [5] - The U.S. trade deficit in May was reported at $71.5 billion, slightly above the forecast of $71 billion and up from $61.6 billion in the previous month [5] - The European Central Bank expressed concerns over economic growth prospects and inflation paths, indicating a slowdown in the eurozone's second-quarter economic growth due to increased uncertainties [5]