每经AI快讯，中国银河（601881）证券指出，全球铜矿供应端扰动不断，智利El Teniente铜矿因事故导 致未来几年产能增量受损；智利下调今年的铜产量预期，预计将达到558万吨，同比增长1.5%，而此前 5月预测产量增幅为3%；此外，非洲赞比亚二季度铜产量出现下滑，主因酸性物质泄漏事故、矿山品位 下降等。尽管当前仍处铜需求淡季，但电网及新能源领域需求韧性较强，且国内社会库存仍处同期低 位，现货维持升水格局，继续支撑铜价。我们认为在矿端供给约束、美联储9月大概率重启降息以及"金 九银十"的需求旺季下，铜价有望继续平稳上涨。此外，国内下游多家大厂密集招标，叠加我国加强稀 土磁材出口管制后海外增加磁材订单以补库存，国内永磁行业需求旺盛，部分磁材企业排产已延至十月 中旬。我国进一步加严对稀土供应端的管控，下游需求端的景气，推动稀土价格持续上涨。稀土磁材在 上半年的业绩反转后，2025Q3有望在量价齐升的推动下进一步释放业绩。 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Copper Market Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the copper market, highlighting the current supply-demand dynamics and price movements in 2025 [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Supply Tightness and Price Increase** Since mid to late May, global copper inventories have decreased year-on-year compared to 2024, indicating a supply tightness that has driven copper prices up. By early July, copper prices surpassed $10,000, primarily driven by actual demand rather than macro funds [1][2]. 2. **Domestic Inventory Trends** As of July 21, domestic copper inventories unexpectedly decreased by 24,700 tons, with good operating rates for refined copper and copper rods. This trend suggests that the domestic inventory has reached a turning point [1][3]. 3. **LME and COMEX Inventory Changes** LME copper inventories rose from a low of 90,000 tons to approximately 125,000 tons, showing signs of peaking around July 23-24. In contrast, COMEX inventories accumulated due to high copper prices suppressing demand, with U.S. demand expected to drop by 200,000 tons due to tariffs [1][4]. 4. **Catalysts for the Second Half of 2025** Several factors are expected to catalyze the copper market in the second half of 2025, including anticipated interest rate cuts, the traditional peak season, and potential production cuts from smelters. These factors are likely to encourage macro funds or investment funds to increase their positions, further driving up copper prices [1][5]. 5. **External Demand and Electricity Equipment Imports** The import growth rate for electrical equipment is projected to be 20% year-on-year in 2025, indicating strong external demand. Electrical equipment accounts for 70% of export demand, with U.S. and European imports also expected to grow by about 20% [1][6]. 6. **Impact of Investment Fund Positions** As of July 18, LME investment fund positions fell below the levels seen in April 2025, with a five-year position percentile at 44%, indicating a bearish sentiment. However, strong actual demand is making it difficult for shorts to push prices down. If interest rate cuts materialize, along with seasonal demand and production cuts, investment fund positions are likely to increase, positively impacting prices [1][7]. Other Important Insights - The domestic actual copper demand, excluding exports, shows significant seasonal variations, remaining weak in the off-season but expected to be strong in the peak season. The overall market is anticipated to maintain a stable growth trajectory without significant fluctuations [1][3][6].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. copper import tax policy is causing significant market fluctuations, leading to a new historical high in COMEX copper prices, with expectations for domestic copper prices to test previous highs [1] Group 1 - The U.S. copper import tax policy is approaching, which is creating volatility in the market [1] - COMEX copper prices have reached a new all-time high [1] - Institutions believe that domestic copper prices may test previous highs due to the market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant impact of the proposed 50% tariff on imported copper in the U.S., leading to a surge in copper futures prices and an increase in copper theft incidents across various sectors [1]. Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - The U.S. plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper, causing a sharp rise in copper futures prices on the New York Commodity Exchange [1]. - Copper has become a primary target for theft in the U.S., with reports indicating that it is now the "number one emerging theft target" [1]. Group 2: Applications and Theft Trends - Copper is widely used in industries such as data centers, automotive, and energy, making it a valuable commodity [1]. - The increase in copper prices has led to a rise in theft incidents, with criminal gangs targeting not only stored copper but also entire shipments in transit [1]. - The rate of copper theft from trucks is reportedly accelerating faster than the increase in copper prices [1].

Core Insights - The article highlights that copper has become the number one emerging theft target in the U.S., with theft rates outpacing price increases [1] - Following the announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper by Trump, U.S. copper prices reached historic highs, increasing over 35% globally [1] Industry Summary - The increase in copper thefts is significant, with a reported 26% year-over-year rise in theft cases in the logistics sector in the U.S. and Canada, totaling 3,798 incidents [1] - In the first half of 2024, copper-related theft cases surged by 61% compared to the same period last year, indicating a growing trend in criminal activity targeting high-value commodities [1] - Verisk CargoNet has identified copper as a primary target for theft, reflecting the ongoing pursuit of easily sellable and high-priced goods by criminals [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent surge in international copper prices, reaching a three-month high, driven by increased demand and supply constraints [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Traders are stockpiling copper in the U.S. ahead of potential tariff increases by the Trump administration, aiming to lock in lower prices [3] - U.S. demand for copper is rising due to the restart of infrastructure projects, with orders for electrical wires and construction-grade copper increasing significantly [3] - LME copper inventories are declining, with warehouse stocks nearing 500,000 tons, tightening the supply-demand balance and contributing to price increases [3] Group 2: Supply Constraints - Global copper mining is facing challenges, particularly in South America where strikes in Chile and Peru, along with transportation issues in the Democratic Republic of Congo, are impacting production [3] - Smelters are relying on existing inventories due to insufficient mining output, exacerbating the supply issues [3] Group 3: Investment Considerations - Short-term volatility in copper prices may occur due to tariff speculation, but long-term trends will depend on the actual implementation of U.S. infrastructure legislation and recovery of production in South America [4] - Investors should monitor upstream and downstream movements in the copper supply chain, including the operational rates of domestic copper rod manufacturers and inventory changes in quarterly reports from overseas copper companies [5] - The core logic of copper pricing remains rooted in supply-demand dynamics, with short-term tariff speculation being a temporary influence [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the copper market is experiencing a strong upward trend, supported by rising copper prices and positive economic indicators from China and the US [1][2] - As of July 1, 2025, copper prices reached a three-month high, with LME benchmark copper rising to $9,945 per ton, indicating a significant increase in demand and market confidence [1] - The China Securities believes that the copper market remains in a tight balance, with limited production increases and a need for further macroeconomic policy support to sustain price growth [2] Group 2 - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) has shown strong performance, with notable increases in stocks such as Northern Copper and Zhongfu Industrial, reflecting overall positive sentiment in the sector [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Nonferrous Metals Industry Index account for 50.02% of the index, highlighting the concentration of market performance among key players like Zijin Mining and China Aluminum [3] - The Nonferrous ETF fund closely tracks the Nonferrous Metals Industry Index, providing investors with a means to invest in the sector's overall performance [2][4]

Group 1: Copper Market Overview - International copper prices surged, with a peak of $9,984, and COMEX copper rising nearly 2% [1] - Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 LME copper price forecast from $9,140/ton to $9,890/ton, expecting a peak of $10,050 in August [1] - The optimism surrounding the U.S. "Big and Beautiful" bill and a significant drop in the U.S. dollar index contributed to the copper price increase [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - U.S. tariffs on copper, set at 25%, led to a significant reduction in LME copper inventory, with Asian warehouse stocks dropping from 200,000 tons to 60,000 tons, a decrease of 70% [2] - LME European inventory also saw a sharp decline of 44% in June, nearing multi-year lows [2] - The global copper inventory is under pressure due to increased demand and supply chain disruptions [2] Group 3: Demand Factors - China accounts for approximately 50% of global copper consumption, with increasing investments in power grids and infrastructure driving demand [2] - The rise in electric vehicle penetration is expected to further boost copper consumption in the future [2] - Recent PMI data from China indicates stable internal and external demand, supporting copper prices [2] Group 4: Company Insights - Luoyang Molybdenum plans to produce 650,200 tons of copper in 2024, a 55% increase, aiming for 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons by 2028 [3] - Zijin Mining has confirmed copper reserves of 50.43 million tons, with production targets of 1.07 million tons in 2024 and 1.15 million tons in 2025 [3] - Minmetals Resources, a mid-sized non-ferrous metal mining company, aims for a copper equity output of 265,000 tons in 2024, ranking third among domestic listed companies [3] Group 5: Major Production Highlights - Jiangxi Copper, the world's largest single copper smelter, expects to produce 2.29 million tons of cathode copper in 2024, a 9.28% increase [4] - The company plans to increase production to 2.37 million tons in 2025, along with growth in gold and sulfuric acid production [4]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing significant price increases, with COMEX copper prices rising over 25% since early April, nearing historical highs, which has positively impacted the A-share copper metal sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - There is a notable divergence in global copper market prices, with COMEX copper trading significantly higher than LME copper by $1,200, and LME copper prices exceeding Shanghai copper by nearly 2,000 yuan [3]. - The anticipation of tariffs on copper imports by the U.S. has led to increased preemptive stockpiling by downstream manufacturers and intensified arbitrage trading, disrupting the global copper market balance [4]. - LME copper inventories have drastically decreased, with Asian warehouse stocks plummeting from 200,000 tons to 60,000 tons, a reduction of 70%, while European stocks have also seen a significant decline of 44% [5][8]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The current supply situation is tight, with LME copper's available inventory down approximately 80% since the beginning of the year, equating to just one day's global usage [8]. - The persistent shortage of copper in the spot market has led to a significant premium for spot prices over futures, indicating supply constraints [9]. - The potential for a short squeeze in the LME copper market is a concern, although the likelihood remains low due to new regulations aimed at preventing such occurrences [10][11]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical instances of copper market squeezes, such as the 2021 event, have shaped current market dynamics, with lessons learned influencing regulatory changes [12][15]. - The long-term outlook for copper prices remains bullish, driven by limited supply growth and increasing demand from sectors like electric grid investments and the burgeoning electric vehicle market [16][17]. - Major Chinese copper mining companies, such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, are expected to see significant production increases, contributing to a favorable supply-demand balance [18][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices fluctuated upwards. Trump's plan to arrange a shadow chairman before Powell's term ends to promote rapid interest rate cuts, along with the negative final Q1 GDP growth and decreased May personal consumption in the US, increased the market's bearish sentiment towards the US dollar. Rising interest rate cut expectations and the weak US dollar boosted copper prices. Fundamentally, the global copper concentrate supply shortage was more severe than expected, LME visible inventories declined continuously, the LME0 - 3 BACK structure was crowded, and domestic social inventories were low. The tightened global refined copper balance provided a solid bottom and upward support for copper prices in the medium term [2]. - Overall, the intensified stagflation risk in the US, the weakening US dollar, and the slightly rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year provided a good basis for copper prices to rise in the short term. The calming of the Middle - East situation increased the capital market's risk appetite for bulk assets. The US's desire to revitalize the manufacturing industry elevated copper to a strategic asset. Fundamentally, the overseas concentrate shortage persisted, the long - term TC benchmark price for the second half of the year between Antofagasta and some Chinese smelters dropped to $0, global visible inventories were at a low level and declining, there was a certain risk of a short squeeze in LME0 - 3, and the global refined copper balance might turn slightly short in the second half of the year. It is expected that copper prices will enter an upward - fluctuating channel and gradually open up upward space in the short term [3][10][11] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Price Changes**: From June 20th to June 27th, LME copper rose from $9,660.50/ton to $9,879.00/ton, a 2.26% increase; COMEX copper rose from 483.4 cents/pound to 512.5 cents/pound, a 6.02% increase; SHFE copper rose from 77,990 yuan/ton to 79,920 yuan/ton, a 2.47% increase; international copper rose from 69,170 yuan/ton to 71,250 yuan/ton, a 3.01% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio increased slightly from 8.07 to 8.09, the LME spot premium dropped from $274.99/ton to $240.67/ton, a 12.48% decrease, and the Shanghai spot premium dropped from 120 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of June 27th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded areas decreased to 445,288 tons, a 3.49% decrease from June 20th. LME inventory decreased by 7,925 tons to 91,275 tons, a 7.99% decrease; COMEX inventory increased by 8,084 short tons to 209,281 short tons, a 4.02% increase; SHFE inventory decreased by 19,264 tons to 81,532 tons, a 19.11% decrease; Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 63,200 tons, a 4.98% increase [7] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Movement**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated upwards. The weakening US dollar and the tightened global refined copper balance supported copper prices. As of June 27th, the total global inventory decreased, and the decline in the Shanghai - London ratio was mainly due to the weakening US dollar [8]. - **Macro - aspect**: Trump's criticism of Powell and the consideration of replacing him increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, putting downward pressure on the US dollar index and boosting the metal market. The US economy showed signs of stagflation or shallow recession, and the Fed might resume interest rate cuts in the future. The cease - fire in the Middle - East was a positive sign for the capital market [9]. - **Supply - demand Aspect**: The global copper concentrate supply shortage persisted. Some small and medium - sized smelters in China reduced production slightly, and new production capacity might be postponed. In terms of demand, the start - up rate of copper cable enterprises remained above 80%, and the new energy vehicle industry maintained a high growth rate, which could offset the decline in demand from traditional industries. The global refined copper balance might turn slightly short in the second half of the year [10] 3. Industry News - **Peru's Copper Production**: In April, Peru's copper production reached 220,200 tons, a 7.9% year - on - year increase. From January to April, the cumulative production was 886,700 tons, a 4.9% year - on - year increase. Las Bambas copper mine became the third - largest copper mine in Peru [12]. - **Western Mining's Project**: Western Mining's subsidiary, Yulong Copper, received approval for its third - phase project. After completion, the ore - processing scale will increase to 30 million tons/year, and the annual copper metal output is expected to reach 180,000 - 200,000 tons [13]. - **Antofagasta's Expansion**: Antofagasta's Los Pelambres copper mine has produced over 8.5 million tons of copper. After the first - phase expansion, two new projects are in progress. The company's copper production guidance for 2025 is 660,000 - 700,000 tons [14]. - **Copper Rod Market**: The processing fee of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China decreased slightly. The copper rod market in East and South China was weak, and the start - up rate of copper rod enterprises is expected to decline in early July [15] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, inventory changes in LME, COMEX, and SHFE, and the trends of copper premiums, spreads, and import profits and losses [19][22][26]