智通财经APP获悉，天风证券发布研究报告称，2025年铜矿供应增量再度不及预期，全年增速较2024年继续下滑。预计2025年全球铜矿产量减量2.3万 吨，yoy-0.12%。预计2025年全球铜矿产量减量2.3万吨，考虑极低干扰率2026年铜矿增量约41万吨(2%)。资源为王，关注在不断拓版图的矿企。我国铜矿 企业版图延伸至非洲、南美洲等资源富集地区，在高成本和资源保护主义等压力下，通过并购、收购、合资等方式增厚储备。包括紫金矿业与艾芬豪矿 业、刚果政府合作开发Kamoa-Kakula大型铜矿并持有39.6%的股份，五矿持股秘鲁Las Bambas大型铜矿，洛钼则主要扎根刚果(金)地区铜矿。 一、近年来铜矿利润高企，然供应增速却背道而驰。 2025年铜矿供应增量再度不及预期，全年增速较2024年继续下滑。预计2025年全球铜矿产量减量2.3万吨，yoy-0.12%。预计2025年全球铜矿产量减量2.3万 吨，考虑极低干扰率2026年铜矿增量约41万吨(2%)。 据矿企Q2财报及更新信息，2025年铜矿生产预计增减相抵，天风证券预计整体增速约-0.12%，铜矿供应增速较年初下调，较2024年增速下滑。 1)矿端 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The copper mining supply growth is expected to decline in 2025, with an overall growth rate of approximately -0.12%, down from earlier projections and 2024 levels [4][8][11] - The TC benchmark has been significantly lowered, leading to relaxed mining costs, while copper prices are expected to rise significantly, maintaining high profit margins for copper mines [4][8] - The global copper mining industry is currently in a defensive capital expenditure phase, limiting new expansions and leading to high interference rates, which may hinder long-term growth [4][40][44] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The expected global copper production decrease in 2025 is estimated at 23,000 tons, with various mining companies contributing to both increases and decreases in production [9][10] - Major contributors to production increases include expansions from companies like Rio Tinto and MMG, while reductions are attributed to incidents at Kamoa-Kakula and El Teniente [8][9] - The copper price typically leads the copper mining cycle by about one year, suggesting that the high profit margins observed in 2024-2025 should support increased production in 2025-2026, although growth may remain subdued due to high interference rates [4][44] Group 3: Company Focus - Companies such as Zijin Mining, Minmetals Resources, and Luoyang Molybdenum are highlighted as key players in the copper mining sector, actively expanding their resource bases through acquisitions and partnerships [4][45][50] - Zijin Mining has significant copper reserves and is expected to see continued production growth, with a projected CAGR of 10% from 2024 to 2028 [56] - Minmetals Resources is focused on upstream metal resources, with substantial copper and zinc reserves, and has shown a significant increase in copper production in the first half of 2025 [60]