点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 2025年美国关税政策正在加速全球贸易格局重塑，由此带来了全球产业分工和秩序重构，资产波动和经济前景不确定性或显著提高。大宗商品市场也在变 局中，不仅有传统需求动能不足的挑战，也有与地缘博弈和行业革新随之而来的机会。下半年以来，商品市场逐步走出较为悲观的一致预期的泥潭，交易 重心回归各自基本面，比如石油供给风险，黄金避险和获利了结，以及铜短缺预期等。展望2026年，我们认为地缘政治博弈、资源安全诉求和新兴需求或 有望成为全球大宗商品市场进入秩序新章后的三重奏。 首先，地缘博弈和资源保护主义或为本就脆弱的供应弹性带来更多挑战。 全球能源和金属上游投资的下行周期已持续近十年，资本开支欠缺对供给弹性 的约束已经形成，具体表现为存量供应不稳和增量供应不足。秩序重构之中，地缘政治风险和资源保护主义等宏观不确定性或系统性上升，进一步挑战能 源和金属市场本就脆弱的供应弹性。同时，贸易摩擦风险与天气周期变数交织，也为全球农产品丰产预期增添更大不确定性。 其次，战略安全更受需求侧关注，能源转型和储备建设是大势所趋。 伴随着传统经济体的增长更加注重安全，全球大宗商品需求内生增长动能 ...

智通财经APP获悉，天风证券发布研究报告称，2025年铜矿供应增量再度不及预期，全年增速较2024年继续下滑。预计2025年全球铜矿产量减量2.3万 吨，yoy-0.12%。预计2025年全球铜矿产量减量2.3万吨，考虑极低干扰率2026年铜矿增量约41万吨(2%)。资源为王，关注在不断拓版图的矿企。我国铜矿 企业版图延伸至非洲、南美洲等资源富集地区，在高成本和资源保护主义等压力下，通过并购、收购、合资等方式增厚储备。包括紫金矿业与艾芬豪矿 业、刚果政府合作开发Kamoa-Kakula大型铜矿并持有39.6%的股份，五矿持股秘鲁Las Bambas大型铜矿，洛钼则主要扎根刚果(金)地区铜矿。 一、近年来铜矿利润高企，然供应增速却背道而驰。 2025年铜矿供应增量再度不及预期，全年增速较2024年继续下滑。预计2025年全球铜矿产量减量2.3万吨，yoy-0.12%。预计2025年全球铜矿产量减量2.3万 吨，考虑极低干扰率2026年铜矿增量约41万吨(2%)。 据矿企Q2财报及更新信息，2025年铜矿生产预计增减相抵，天风证券预计整体增速约-0.12%，铜矿供应增速较年初下调，较2024年增速下滑。 1)矿端 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The copper mining supply growth is expected to decline in 2025, with an overall growth rate of approximately -0.12%, down from earlier projections and 2024 levels [4][8][11] - The TC benchmark has been significantly lowered, leading to relaxed mining costs, while copper prices are expected to rise significantly, maintaining high profit margins for copper mines [4][8] - The global copper mining industry is currently in a defensive capital expenditure phase, limiting new expansions and leading to high interference rates, which may hinder long-term growth [4][40][44] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The expected global copper production decrease in 2025 is estimated at 23,000 tons, with various mining companies contributing to both increases and decreases in production [9][10] - Major contributors to production increases include expansions from companies like Rio Tinto and MMG, while reductions are attributed to incidents at Kamoa-Kakula and El Teniente [8][9] - The copper price typically leads the copper mining cycle by about one year, suggesting that the high profit margins observed in 2024-2025 should support increased production in 2025-2026, although growth may remain subdued due to high interference rates [4][44] Group 3: Company Focus - Companies such as Zijin Mining, Minmetals Resources, and Luoyang Molybdenum are highlighted as key players in the copper mining sector, actively expanding their resource bases through acquisitions and partnerships [4][45][50] - Zijin Mining has significant copper reserves and is expected to see continued production growth, with a projected CAGR of 10% from 2024 to 2028 [56] - Minmetals Resources is focused on upstream metal resources, with substantial copper and zinc reserves, and has shown a significant increase in copper production in the first half of 2025 [60]

Core Viewpoint - Guinea is emerging as a significant player in the global commodity market, particularly in bauxite and iron ore supply, with the potential to influence pricing trends in these sectors due to its resource endowment and ongoing projects like the Simandou iron ore project [2][6]. Natural Conditions - Guinea has abundant mineral resources, particularly bauxite and iron ore, with distinct wet and dry seasons affecting production and transportation [3][9]. - The country experiences significant seasonal variations in rainfall, impacting the shipping volumes of bauxite during the rainy season [12][13]. Infrastructure - Guinea's infrastructure, including electricity and transportation, is underdeveloped, posing challenges for mining operations [15][16]. - The country has a limited road network primarily consisting of unpaved roads, which can hinder transportation during the rainy season [18]. Policy Environment - The Guinean government has shown a trend towards resource protectionism, increasing control over the mining sector and emphasizing local processing [25][26]. - Recent policy changes have aimed to enhance government control over mining operations while still promoting foreign investment [32][33]. Iron Ore - The Simandou iron ore project is set to significantly alter the global iron ore supply landscape, with an estimated total resource of approximately 1.99 billion tons [4][39]. - The project is expected to increase China's iron ore self-sufficiency from less than 3% to 6-8% upon full production [4]. Bauxite - Guinea is the world's largest bauxite producer, with a projected supply of 77% of global maritime bauxite in 2024 [2][6]. - The country maintains a favorable bauxite production ratio, indicating strong potential for continued output growth [5][10]. Economic Impact - Mining is a critical pillar of Guinea's economy, contributing 25% to GDP, with significant growth in export revenues driven by bauxite [28][29]. - The influx of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the mining sector has been stable, contributing to infrastructure development and economic resilience [28][29]. Logistics and Transportation - Guinea's logistics rely heavily on maritime transshipment due to inadequate port facilities, necessitating the use of smaller vessels for transporting minerals [22][24]. - The upcoming Maribaya port is expected to enhance the export capacity for iron ore, with a projected throughput of 60 million tons annually [23]. Future Outlook - The anticipated increase in bauxite and iron ore production from Guinea is expected to exert downward pressure on global prices, with projections indicating a gradual decline in price levels over the next few years [5][42]. - The government's push for local processing of minerals may lead to increased operational costs and potential supply constraints in the future [36][38].