Report Summary on February 4, 2026 1. Market Performance on February 3, 2026 - **Stock Market**: A-share market strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.29% to 4067.74, Shenzhen Component Index up 2.19% to 14127.11, and ChiNext Index up 1.86% to 3324.89. The total trading volume in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 25,658 billion yuan, a decrease of 411 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Index Futures**: The CSI 300 index stopped falling and fluctuated, closing at 4660.11, up 54.13 [2]. 2. Commodity Futures 2.1 Coking Coal and Coke - **Coke**: The weighted index of coke had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1718.7, down 2.2. The first - round price increase was fully implemented, with general coking profits, slightly decreased daily production, and a small increase in inventory. Traders' purchasing willingness may improve [2][4]. - **Coking Coal**: The weighted index of coking coal had an interval consolidation, closing at 1176.6 yuan, down 2.1. Mongolian coal customs clearance was 913 vehicles. Coking coal mine output slightly increased, but spot auction transactions gradually declined. Terminal inventory increased significantly, and the overall inventory of coking coal rose sharply [3][4]. 2.2 Sugar - The US sugar had a slight decline after a large short - term drop due to technical reasons. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fell on February 3 due to lower spot prices and rose slightly at night. As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season reached 19.503 million tons, a 18.35% increase from the same period last year [4]. 2.3 Rubber - The Shanghai rubber market had a slight increase after a large short - term drop due to technical reasons and continued to rise at night driven by the stabilization and rebound of the non - ferrous metal market. As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 59.17 million tons, a 1.23% increase from the previous period [4]. 2.4 Soybean and Bean Meal - Brazilian soybean is in the early harvest period, and institutions have raised the production outlook. Stonex expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to reach 181.6 million tons, a 2.3% increase from the January forecast. The domestic bean meal 2605 contract closed at 2727 yuan/ton on February 3, down 0.84%. The pre - festival stocking is coming to an end, and the downstream demand is declining, with inventory accumulating again. As of the end of the 54th week of 2026, the bean meal inventory was 94.7 million tons, an increase of 4.02 million tons from the previous week [6]. 2.5 Livestock (Pig) - The main contract of live pigs LH2605 closed at 11,600 yuan/ton on February 3, down 0.3%. Before the Spring Festival, the slaughter window is narrowing, and farmers may sell pigs in advance, increasing the supply. The pre - festival demand provides limited support. In the medium term, the high inventory of sows and piglet replenishment will ensure future supply, and the oversupply situation is difficult to change [6]. 2.6 Palm Oil - The palm oil market continued to fluctuate weakly after a high - level decline on February 3, with the decline easing. The main contract P2605 closed at 9094, up 0.89%. Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 31, 2026, were 1.375718 million tons, a 14.89% increase from the previous month. As of January 30, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of China was 70.14 million tons, a 5.51% decrease from the previous week and a 43.00% increase from the same period last year [6]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The main contract of Shanghai copper had a deep V - shaped reversal. Driven by policy support (expanding strategic copper reserves), a weak US dollar, and rising LME copper prices, the market sentiment improved. However, with the approach of the Spring Festival, the terminal demand is weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [6]. - **Aluminum**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum al2603 closed at 23,035 yuan/ton on February 3. The market is evaluating the new Fed chairman candidate's monetary policy, which is currently bearish for the metal market. The supply is stable, and the social inventory is high. The demand is improving slightly, but the negative feedback from small and medium - sized factories is strengthening [7]. 2.8 Other Commodities - **Iron Ore**: The main contract of iron ore 2605 fell 1.14% to 777.5 yuan on February 3. The shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, and the domestic arrival volume also increased slightly. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the short - term price will fluctuate [6]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt 2603 fell 1.72% to 3309 yuan on February 3. The refinery's production plan in February decreased slightly, and the market demand was weak in the off - season, so the price will fluctuate [6][7]. - **Cotton**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,660 yuan/ton at night on February 3. The inventory increased by 75 lots. Textile enterprises' pre - festival replenishment willingness is low, and about 80% of the US cotton - producing areas are in drought as of January 27 [7]. - **Log**: The main contract of log 2603 closed at 801 on February 3, with a decrease of 169 lots. The spot price of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. The port's coniferous log inventory has been decreasing for 3 weeks [7]. - **Steel**: The rb2605 contract closed at 3099 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3265 yuan/ton on February 3. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream demand is decreasing, and the market activity is low. The steel price will fluctuate within a narrow range [7]. - **Alumina**: The ao2605 contract closed at 2809 yuan/ton on February 3. Some alumina plants in Shanxi, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Henan have reduced production, which supports the futures price to some extent. However, the overall oversupply situation remains, and the price is under pressure [7].