格隆汇1月22日｜华泰证券研报指出，紫金矿业发布25年业绩预告，测算25Q4紫金归母净利131-141亿 元（Q3146亿元）、扣非归母净利的增长与Q4金属价格上涨事实相符，Q4LME铜均价上涨13%至11047 美元、SHFE 金均价上涨20%至949元/克。公司亦发布26 年产量指引，计划生产矿产铜120万吨、矿产 金105吨、碳酸锂当量12万吨；且24年公司发布五年产量规划，24-28年矿产铜/金产量CAGR均为8- 10%。看好紫金矿业的价值提升，三个逻辑：1）看好铜、金价上行周期。2）公司是铜金、乃至有色龙 头，经营稳健、成长性较强，预期26-27年归母净利增速较高（+57%/+23%）。3）公司整体估值与铜股 相近，黄金价值有望重估。维持"买入"评级。 ...

华泰证券研报指出，紫金矿业发布25年业绩预告，测算25Q4紫金归母净利131-141亿元（Q3146亿 元）、扣非归母净利的增长与Q4金属价格上涨事实相符，Q4LME铜均价上涨13%至11047 美元、SHFE 金均价上涨20%至949元/克。公司亦发布26 年产量指引，计划生产矿产铜120万吨、矿产金105吨、碳酸 锂当量12万吨；且24年公司发布五年产量规划，24-28年矿产铜/金产量CAGR均为8-10%。看好紫金矿 业的价值提升，三个逻辑：1）看好铜、金价上行周期。2）公司是铜金、乃至有色龙头，经营稳健、成 长性较强，预期26-27年归母净利增速较高（+57%/+23%）。3）公司整体估值与铜股相近，黄金价值有 望重估。维持"买入"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1][7]. Core Views - The report highlights three main reasons for optimism regarding the company: 1) Anticipation of rising copper and gold prices, 2) The company is a leading player in copper and gold, with strong growth potential, expecting a high net profit growth rate of +57% in 2026 and +23% in 2027, 3) The overall valuation of the company is comparable to copper stocks, with potential for a revaluation of its gold assets [1][5]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit for Q4 2025 between 131-141 billion RMB, with a non-recurring net profit between 134-144 billion RMB, reflecting growth aligned with rising metal prices [2]. - The company achieved a copper production of 1.09 million tons in 2025, slightly below the initial guidance of 1.15 million tons, while gold production reached 90 tons, exceeding the guidance of 85 tons [2]. - For 2026, the company plans to produce 1.2 million tons of copper and 105 tons of gold, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8-10% for copper and gold production from 2024 to 2028 [2]. Price Forecasts - The report anticipates that gold prices could rise to $4800 per ounce in 2026, driven by a diversification of foreign exchange reserves and a potential decline in U.S. real interest rates [3]. - For copper, prices are expected to exceed $15,000 per ton from 2025 to 2028, supported by limited supply growth and increasing demand driven by U.S. inventory and infrastructure development [3]. Valuation Insights - The company's gross profit distribution is estimated at 53% from copper and other metals and 47% from gold, suggesting it can be viewed as a "half gold, half copper" company [4]. - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for comparable A-share copper stocks is 22X, while for gold stocks it is 29X. The company's A-share valuation is only 21X, indicating potential for a revaluation of its gold assets [4]. Target Prices - The target price for the company is set at 62.40 RMB for A-shares and 66.03 HKD for H-shares, based on a PE ratio of 18/23X for 2026 [5][7].