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紫金矿业(601899):铜金量价齐增,单季度利润新高破百亿
CMS· 2025-04-14 07:33
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Zijin Mining [4] Core Views - The company achieved record high profits in Q1 2025, with revenue of 78.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 10.167 billion yuan, up 62.4% year-on-year and 32.2% quarter-on-quarter [7] - The production of copper and gold increased, with copper output at 288,000 tons and gold output at 19 tons, representing year-on-year increases of 9.5% and 13.4%, respectively [7] - The report highlights a significant improvement in gross margins due to price increases for copper and gold, with Q1 2025 gross margins for copper and gold at 61.1% and 60.9%, respectively, reflecting increases of 3.3 and 9.5 percentage points year-on-year [7] Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 293.4 billion yuan in 2023, 303.6 billion yuan in 2024, and an estimated 376.2 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9%, 3%, and 24% respectively [3] - The estimated net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 21.12 billion yuan in 2023, 32.05 billion yuan in 2024, and 40.96 billion yuan in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 5%, 52%, and 28% respectively [3] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 21.6, with projections of 14.2 for 2024, 11.1 for 2025, and further declines to 8.3 by 2027, indicating a potential for valuation recovery [15] Price Assumptions - The report assumes copper prices at 77,305 yuan/ton and gold prices at 678 yuan/gram for 2025, reflecting increases from previous years [8] Shareholder Information - The major shareholder is Minxi Xinghang State-owned Assets Investment Management, holding a 22.89% stake in the company [4]