Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The multi - short game for copper prices at high levels has intensified. Attention should be paid to the support at the 100,000 - yuan mark. Although the short - term upward momentum of copper prices is strong, they are at a historical high. The pressure on the domestic industrial side contradicts the strong macro expectations, and short - term futures prices may need to oscillate for digestion, waiting for the industry to catch up. The obvious increase in the social inventory of electrolytic copper last week reflects the resistance of downstream industries [5][57]. - **Aluminum**: The multi - short game for aluminum prices at high levels has intensified. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the 2021 high. The strong performance of aluminum prices mainly comes from the high copper - aluminum ratio, and the increasing expectation of aluminum substitution for copper provides upward momentum. Short - term aluminum prices are facing technical pressure at the October 2021 high, and attention should be paid to the technical support at the 24,000 - yuan mark [6][57]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - The macro - market atmosphere cooled last week, with global stock indices and commodities showing a high - level decline. The short - term market risk preference decreased, and copper prices also dropped from high levels. Additionally, the continuous rebound of the US dollar index exerted pressure on copper prices, and the multi - short game for LME copper at the 13,000 - dollar mark intensified [10]. 2. Copper - **2.1 Quantity and Price Trends**: Copper prices first rose and then fell last week, generally oscillating above 100,000 yuan. The open interest of SHFE copper remained at a high level, and the multi - short game at high levels intensified [5][57]. - **2.2 Copper Ore Shortage**: Rio Tinto and Glencore have conducted preliminary negotiations on a super - merger. They produce a series of minerals including copper. Rio Tinto was the seventh - largest copper producer in 2024 with a production of 649,720 metric tons, and Glencore was the fourth - largest with a production of about 1 million tons in 2024 [24]. - **2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory Accumulation**: On January 8, the social inventory of electrolytic copper monitored by Mysteel was 284,700 tons, a weekly increase of 37,600 tons. The inventory of COMEX + LME was 801,400 tons, a weekly increase of 44,200 tons. High copper prices have a suppressive effect on the global industry [26]. - **2.4 Downstream Primary Processing**: In December 2025, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 20.42%, higher than the expected 19.61%, but down 3.42 percentage points month - on - month and 15.92 percentage points year - on - year [28]. 3. Aluminum - **3.1 Quantity and Price Trends**: After the New Year's Day, aluminum prices showed an upward trend with increasing positions, breaking through the 24,000 - yuan mark. The short - term macro - atmosphere dominated the trend of aluminum prices. Since Wednesday, the macro - atmosphere cooled, and the willingness of funds to close positions increased, leading to a decline in aluminum prices from high levels. However, on Friday, aluminum prices were strong again, rising with increasing positions and approaching the previous high [6][57]. - **3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain**: On January 9, the port inventory of bauxite was 25.096 million tons, an increase of 886,000 tons from the previous week and 7.496 million tons higher than the same period in 2024. After the New Year's Day, alumina prices rebounded significantly, which may lead to a decline in the high - level profits of electrolytic aluminum plants [41][42]. - **3.3 Slowdown in Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Reduction**: On January 8, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum monitored by Mysteel was 718,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons from before the holiday. The overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 506,100 tons, a decrease of 9,400 tons from the previous week. The overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory at a low level provided support for aluminum prices [46]. - **3.4 Downstream Primary Processing**: Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods decreased significantly. As aluminum prices rose to the 24,000 - yuan level, downstream industries showed obvious fear of high prices. On January 8, the inventory of aluminum rods was 114,100 tons, an increase of 15,100 tons from the previous week [51][53]. 4. Conclusion The conclusion is consistent with the core views, emphasizing the multi - short game situation of copper and aluminum prices at high levels, the influence of macro and industrial factors, and the key technical levels to be concerned about [57].