1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Alumina**: The supply - side impact of Guinea's cancellation of mining licenses is limited, with overseas ore supply strengthening and domestic bauxite supply becoming less tight. Demand growth is limited as the utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum capacity is over 96%. With low inventory providing some support at the bottom, alumina is expected to remain in a weak oscillating state in June, with a reference operating range of [2800 - 3400], and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [8]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity is running at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate has exceeded 96%. Although downstream consumption has rebounded to some extent under policy stimulation, exports are still weak. With the continuous decline of social inventory to a six - year low, electrolytic aluminum is expected to oscillate in June, with a reference operating range of [19500 - 20300] [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Alumina**: Supply - side disturbances in Guinea have limited impact, overseas supply is strong, and demand growth is limited. Low inventory provides support, but overall, it will be in a weak oscillating state in June [8]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: High - level capacity operation, slow demand recovery, and extremely low inventory support prices, with an expected oscillating trend in June [8]. 3.2 Review of Market Performance - As of May 30, LME aluminum showed a strong oscillation, rising 2.24% compared to April. SHFE aluminum rebounded after hitting the bottom and then oscillated, rising 1.08% compared to April. Alumina first rose and then fell, rising 8.76% compared to April [12][16]. 3.3 Supply Situation of the Aluminum Industry Chain - **Domestic Bauxite**: In April, the output was 544000 tons, a decrease of 31000 tons from the previous month, remaining at a relatively low level in the past four years. It is expected to remain at an extremely low level [21]. - **Overseas Bauxite**: In April, the total bauxite shipment volume increased slightly compared to the previous month, with an increase of 124400 tons in shipments from Guinea to 822410 tons and a decrease of 66440 tons in shipments from Australia to 285560 tons [26]. - **Bauxite Imports**: In March, the import volume was 20.684 million tons, a significant increase of 4.2183 million tons from the previous month, remaining at the highest level in the past five years. It is expected to continue to rise [30]. - **Alumina Production**: In April, the production capacity utilization rates in major production areas mostly declined, and the output was 7.225 million tons, a decrease of 224000 tons from the previous month, but still at the highest level in the past six years [34]. - **Alumina Imports**: From April to mid - May, the import profit and loss was stable at around - 260 yuan/ton. The net import volume remained at a low level, and the net export state will continue [39]. - **Costs**: By May 23, the alumina production cost dropped to 2831.8 yuan/ton, and the profit was about 280 yuan/ton. In April, the electrolytic aluminum production cost was 14737 yuan/ton, and the profit was 3731 yuan/ton [43]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In April, the capacity utilization rate rose slightly to 96.73%, and the output was 3.6205 million tons, a slight decrease of 108300 tons from the previous month, but an increase of 3.21% year - on - year, remaining at the highest level in the past six years [48]. - **Aluminum Rod Production**: In April, the operating rate was 58.16%, remaining at an extremely high level in the past five years, and the output was 1.4885 million tons, remaining at the highest level in the past three years [53]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Trade**: In April, the net import volume was - 251600 tons, an increase of 17.46% year - on - year, maintaining the net export state [57]. 3.4 Downstream and Terminal Performance of the Aluminum Industry - **Downstream Operating Rates**: In April, affected by policies, the operating rates of various downstream sectors increased to varying degrees. The aluminum profile operating rate rose to 50.59%, the aluminum rod operating rate rose to 62%, and the aluminum plate, strip, and foil operating rate decreased slightly to 73.31% [62]. - **Aluminum Product Exports**: Due to domestic and overseas policies, the overall export of aluminum products slowed down. From January to April, the cumulative export volume of aluminum profiles was 267400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.15%; the cumulative export volume of aluminum cables was 82800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.1%; the cumulative export volume of aluminum plates and strips was 983000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.77%; and the cumulative export volume of aluminum foil was 457300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.55% [66][71]. - **Real Estate**: From January to April, the cumulative real - estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year, the new construction area decreased by 23.8% year - on - year, and the completed area decreased by 16.9% year - on - year [76]. - **Automobiles**: In April, the production was 2.6188 million vehicles, the sales were 2.5896 million vehicles, and the production - to - sales ratio was 0.9889, a slight increase from March [80]. - **White Goods**: From January to April, the cumulative refrigerator production decreased by 0.7% year - on - year, the cumulative washing machine production increased by 10.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative air - conditioner production increased by 7.2% year - on - year [84]. 3.5 Aluminum Industry Inventory - **Bauxite**: As of May 23, the port inventory was 25.46 million tons, an increase of 88000 tons compared to April, rising to a relatively low level in the past five years [89]. - **Alumina**: As of May 30, the inventory was 3.794 million tons, a decrease of 5.01% compared to April, remaining at the lowest level in the past four years [93]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of May 30, the social inventory was 51900 tons, a decrease of 14500 tons compared to the end of April, at the lowest level in the past six years [97]. - **Exchange Inventories**: As of May 30, the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 17445 tons compared to April, and the LME inventory decreased by 43050 tons compared to April, both at the lowest levels in the past six years [102].