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铝系周报:铝锭低位去库,铝材开工仍降-20250622
Guo Lian Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 11:26
Report Summary Core View - Aluminum prices closed at 20,465 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, with a week-on-week increase of 0.12%. Market factors were intertwined, with the Fed on hold and Powell expecting inflation pressure in the coming months [4] Content Summary by Directory 01 Price Data - Shanghai aluminum first rose and then fell this week, but the center of gravity still moved up [11] - The spread between Shanghai aluminum contracts 07 - 08 weakened week-on-week; the LME aluminum 0 - 3M premium strengthened week-on-week [12] - With low inventory, the spot premium of aluminum ingots remained stable [17] 02 Fundamental Data - Aluminum ore port inventory decreased [20][23] - The alumina monthly spread showed a back structure [27] - The production profit of domestic alumina slightly decreased but remained acceptable. The weekly output of domestic alumina slightly decreased, and the inventory continued to accumulate. This week, the output of metallurgical-grade alumina decreased by 0.3 tons week-on-week to 171.5 tons, and the inventory increased by 2.2 tons to 384 tons [31][36][43] - The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased but with limited amplitude. This week, the output of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.08 tons week-on-week to 84.47 tons [47][51] - Aluminum imports were at a loss [53] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to decrease week-on-week, while the inventory of aluminum rods increased week-on-week. LME aluminum inventory continued to decrease [57][60] - Due to the off-season, the overall starting rate of aluminum products continued to decline this week and may continue to decline next week [64][70] - Last week, the new home sales in 10 key cities increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year, while second-hand home sales increased both month-on-month and year-on-year [74][75] - The production plan of household air conditioners in June was 20.5 million units, a 11.5% increase compared to the actual figure of the same period last year [79] - The production plan of refrigerators in June was 7.9 million units, a 3.6% increase compared to the actual figure of the same period last year [82] - The production plan of washing machines in June was 6.75 million units, the same as the actual figure of the same period last year [83] - From June 1 - 15, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 38% year-on-year [85] - Domestic photovoltaic module production continued to decrease in June [90]