来源：市场资讯 （来源：富宝有色） 1、本周市场回顾：本期铝价震荡上行中持续刷新高点 本期国内现货铝价高位下跌后窄幅反弹。截至11月20日，现货A00铝价为21550-21590元/吨，日均价21570元/吨， 较上期下跌340元/吨，跌幅1.55%；较去年同期上涨790元/吨，涨幅3.80%。期内均价21622元/吨，较上期均价下 跌14元/吨，跌幅0.06%。 | 类別 | A00现货 | 上海地区 | 江苏地区 | 山东地区 | 广东地区 | 河南地区 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11/13 | | | 21890—21930 21890—21900 21895—21905 21875—21915 21740—21760 21750—21770 | | | | | 11/20 | | | 21550—21590 21560—21570 21565—21575 21560—21600 21450—21460 21480—21500 | | | | | 周度涨跌值 | -340 | -330 | -330 | -315 | -295 | - ...

Group 1 - The cumulative aluminum production in China from January to October 2025 reached 55.243 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 0.4% [1] - In October 2025, China's aluminum production was 5.694 million tons, showing a year-on-year decline of 3.2% [1] Group 2 - The pricing model used by the business community is based on big data and a pricing model, referred to as the benchmark price, which serves as a trading guide [1] - The pricing formula for settlement price includes an adjustment coefficient (K) and a premium/discount (C) that accounts for various costs [1]

国家统计局发布报告显示，中国2025年10月中国铝材产量为569.4万吨，环比下滑3.5%，同比下滑 3.2%。1-10月中国铝材产量为5524.3万吨，同比微落。10月铝价重心上移，需求表现平淡，铝材产量环 比下滑。 ...

Core Insights - China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) production in October 2025 reached 1.204 million tons, marking an 8.9% year-on-year increase. Cumulative production from January to October was 12.295 million tons, reflecting a 9.7% year-on-year growth [1][2]. Group 1: Metal Production Data - Alumina production in October was 7.865 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% and a cumulative increase of 8.0% for the year [2]. - Non-ferrous metals production totaled 6.954 million tons in October, showing a 2.9% year-on-year increase and a cumulative increase of 3.1% [2]. - Zinc production in October was 0.665 million tons, with a significant year-on-year increase of 15.7% and a cumulative increase of 8.5% [2]. - Aluminum production in October was 0.645 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%, while cumulative production showed a slight increase of 0.3% [2]. - Copper products production was 2.004 million tons in October, down 3.3% year-on-year, but cumulative production increased by 5.9% [2]. - Aluminum alloy production reached 1.682 million tons in October, with a notable year-on-year increase of 17.2% and a cumulative increase of 15.7% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum industry in China is experiencing a slight decline in production, with a reported decrease of 1.5% year-on-year in September 2025, indicating potential challenges ahead for companies in this sector [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - As of September 2025, China's aluminum production reached 5.976 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.5% [1]. - Cumulative aluminum production from January to September 2025 totaled 49.768 million tons [1]. Group 2: Companies Involved - Listed companies in the aluminum sector include China Aluminum (601600), Yun Aluminum (000807), Shenhuo Co. (000933), Jiaozuo Wanfang (000612), and Nanshan Aluminum (600219) [1]. Group 3: Market Research - The report titled "2025-2031 China Aluminum Material Industry Market Development Potential and Investment Risk Forecast" by Zhiyan Consulting provides insights into the market dynamics and future trends in the aluminum industry [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - The company has released its third-quarter report for 2025, ensuring the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, and has made several key decisions during the board meeting [8][9][17]. Financial Data - The company produced 6.1705 million tons of self-produced coal and 3.3706 million tons of washed coal in the first three quarters of 2025 [17]. - The electricity generation amounted to 3.049 billion kWh, and aluminum processing reached 81,100 tons, including 36,300 tons of manufactured aluminum products and 44,800 tons of processing [17]. - The railway freight volume was 8.9281 million tons, and equipment repair volume was 15,800 tons [17]. Board Meeting Decisions - The board meeting on October 27, 2025, approved the third-quarter report and confirmed its disclosure in designated newspapers and websites [9][10]. - The board also approved the revision of the company's governance responsibility list [12][13]. - A decision was made to donate 1 million RMB to the rural revitalization work team in Suining County, Jiangsu Province [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry in China is facing significant challenges due to declining prices and demand, leading to increased losses and structural issues. The government has introduced a growth stabilization plan for 2025-2026 to enhance profitability and promote green and digital development in the sector [5][6]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The construction materials industry is a crucial foundation for the national economy, but recent years have seen a decline in prices for key products like cement and glass, resulting in an expanded loss margin and highlighted structural problems [3]. - In 2024, the domestic cement industry's profit is projected to be 26.6 billion yuan, a nearly 90% drop from the historical high of 186.7 billion yuan in 2019. The demand has reverted to levels seen before 2010, necessitating a restructuring of competitive order [7]. - From January to September 2025, domestic cement production was 1.259 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%, with prices continuing to decline [7]. Group 2: Government Initiatives - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments issued the "Construction Materials Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)," aiming for a significant improvement in profitability and a target of over 300 billion yuan in revenue from green building materials by 2026 [5]. - The plan emphasizes strict capacity control, nurturing emerging markets, and accelerating green production to transition towards high-quality, low-carbon development [5][8]. Group 3: Capacity Control Measures - To address the sluggish market, the industry is implementing strict capacity control measures. For instance, Conch Cement has increased the number of days its production lines are idled and has eliminated 16 production lines, accounting for over 22% of the total capacity eliminated in the industry [8][9]. - By the end of 2025, it is expected that 10% of the total cement capacity will be eliminated, with the concentration of capacity among the top ten companies rising from 56.5% to over 65% [9]. Group 4: Innovation and Market Development - Companies are diversifying their operations to mitigate risks and foster new growth points. For example, Conch New Materials is acquiring a 51% stake in a plastic products company to enhance synergy and expand into new markets [11]. - The cement industry is increasingly exploring horizontal expansions into aggregates and vertical extensions into concrete, leveraging synergies for competitive advantage [12]. Group 5: Green and Low-Carbon Initiatives - The industry is advancing towards green and low-carbon production through technological innovations, such as the transition to natural gas in glass production, which has reached 65% of total capacity [15]. - The cement sector is adopting carbon capture technologies and optimizing energy consumption, with the proportion of green and smart factories increasing to over 68% [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry in China is facing significant challenges due to declining prices and increased losses, prompting the government to implement a growth stabilization plan aimed at enhancing profitability and promoting green and digital development by 2026 [1][2]. Industry Overview - The construction materials sector is crucial for national economic growth, but recent years have seen a downturn in prices for key products like cement and glass, leading to an expanded loss margin and structural market issues [1]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with five other departments, has issued a plan targeting a significant increase in the profitability of the construction materials industry over the next two years, with a goal of exceeding 300 billion yuan in revenue from green building materials by 2026 [1]. Market Conditions - In 2024, the total profit for the domestic cement industry is projected to be 26.6 billion yuan, a decline of approximately 90% compared to the historical peak of 186.7 billion yuan in 2019 [1]. - Cement production from January to September 2025 was only 1.259 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.2% due to reduced demand from real estate and infrastructure investments [1]. Price Trends - The price of cement has been on a downward trend since 2025, with the price of P.O 42.5 bulk cement hitting a yearly low of 267.11 yuan per ton in mid-August [2]. - The glass industry has also experienced a decline in prices, with the price of float glass reaching a historical low in September 2024, followed by a slight rebound before falling again in 2025 [2]. Capacity Control Measures - The cement industry is actively responding to market challenges by implementing strict capacity controls, with a significant increase in kiln shutdown days and the elimination of inefficient production lines [2][3]. - As of September 2025, the company has shut down 16 production lines, accounting for over 22% of the total capacity eliminated in the industry [2]. Diversification and Innovation - Companies are diversifying their operations by expanding into new markets and industries, such as aluminum and eco-friendly home products, to mitigate reliance on traditional construction materials [5][6]. - The cement industry is also exploring horizontal and vertical expansions into related sectors, leveraging synergies to enhance competitive advantages [6]. Green and Low-Carbon Development - The industry is increasingly focusing on green and low-carbon production methods, with many companies adopting natural gas as a fuel source, which is expected to improve product quality [8]. - The implementation of carbon capture technologies and digital management systems is helping to significantly reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions in cement production [8]. Policy Support - The government is providing support through subsidies, tax reductions, and green finance initiatives to encourage construction material companies to expand their green production capabilities and phase out outdated capacities [9].

Core Insights - China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) production in September 2025 reached 1.266 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [1] - Cumulative production from January to September 2025 totaled 11.125 million tons, also reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.0% [1] Production Data Summary - **Alumina**: September production was 7.999 million tons, with a cumulative production of 68.56 million tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.7% for September and 8.4% cumulatively [2] - **Ten Nonferrous Metals**: September production stood at 6.945 million tons, with a cumulative total of 61.249 million tons, indicating a year-on-year increase of 2.9% for September and 3% cumulatively [2] - **Refined Copper (Electrolytic Copper)**: As previously mentioned, September production was 1.266 million tons, with a cumulative total of 11.125 million tons, both showing a 10.1% and 10% year-on-year increase respectively [2] - **Aluminum (Electrolytic Aluminum)**: September production was 3.809 million tons, with a cumulative total of 33.968 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.8% for September and 2.2% cumulatively [2] - **Copper Products**: September production reached 2.232 million tons, with a cumulative total of 18.575 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.9% for September and 9.6% cumulatively [2] - **Aluminum Products**: September production was 5.900 million tons, with a cumulative total of 49.768 million tons, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 1.5% for September and no growth cumulatively [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's exports in September continued to exceed expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%. The resilience of exports was mainly supported by the demand from non-US economies and emerging markets, low base effect, and the "anti-involution" effect on export prices. In the fourth quarter, although the rising base may suppress export readings, exports may still perform better than expected. [3][7] - China's imports in September had a year-on-year growth of 7.4%, reaching a new high for the year. The increase was mainly driven by price rises, and the import volume of some consumer goods remained weak. Attention should be paid to the improvement of import momentum after the accelerated implementation of wide - credit policies in the fourth quarter. [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Export: Strong Demand from Emerging Markets Supports Export Resilience - **Overall Export Situation**: In September, the export growth rate was +8.3%, 3.9 percentage points higher than that in August. The narrowing decline in exports to the US and the rising growth rate to non - US economies, along with the booming emerging markets, supported export resilience. [3][13] - **By Product Category** - **Consumer Goods**: The drag on consumer goods exports narrowed slightly but remained at a low level. In September, the year - on - year decline of four categories of consumer goods (clothing, shoes, bags, and toys) was - 12.7%, a 0.6 - percentage - point improvement from August. Price was still the main drag, with shoes and bags having year - on - year declines of - 13.0% and - 14.1% respectively. [15] - **Intermediate Goods**: The export of intermediate goods accelerated, significantly driving exports. In September, the combined year - on - year growth of five categories of intermediate goods (plastic products, steel, aluminum, integrated circuits, and general equipment) was +21.0% (compared to +12.3% in August), driving export growth by 2.4 percentage points. [18] - **Electronic Products**: Due to the low base, the drag of electronic products on exports significantly narrowed. In September, the combined year - on - year decline of mobile phones and laptops was - 1.0% (compared to - 8.1% in August), and the drag on exports narrowed to - 0.1%, the best performance since April. [23] - **Automobiles**: The contribution of automobiles declined slightly. In September, the year - on - year growth of automobile (including chassis) export value was +10.9%, a 6.5 - percentage - point decline from August, and the driving rate of export growth dropped to 0.4%. [23] - **By Country** - **Developed Economies**: In September, the decline in exports to the US narrowed slightly, with a year - on - year decline of - 27.0%, and its share in exports rose to 10.4%. The growth rate of exports to the EU continued to rise, reaching +14.2%. [24] - **Emerging Markets**: Exports to ASEAN slowed down, with a year - on - year growth of +15.6%, a 7 - percentage - point decline from the previous month, but still at a relatively high historical level. Exports to Latin America were remarkable, with the year - on - year growth turning positive to +15.2%, the highest since May. [24] 3.2 Import: Significantly Driven by Price, with the Growth Rate Reaching a New High for the Year - **Overall Import Situation**: In September, the import amount had a year - on - year growth of 7.4%, a 6.1 - percentage - point increase from August, reaching a new high for the year. The month - on - month growth was +8.5%, significantly higher than the usual 2% in the same period. Price increases were the main driver, while the import volume of some commodities remained weak, indicating that domestic demand still needed to be boosted by wide - credit policies. [29] - **By Product Category** - **Upstream Bulk Commodities**: The decline in imports of upstream bulk commodities significantly narrowed. In September, the combined year - on - year decline of five categories of upstream bulk commodities (iron ore, copper ore, coal and lignite, crude oil, and refined oil) was - 1.6%, the best performance this year, 10.5 percentage points narrower than in August. [30] - **Intermediate Goods**: The import of intermediate goods accelerated. The combined year - on - year growth of four categories of intermediate goods (primary plastics, copper materials, diodes, and integrated circuits) was +11.6%, a 6.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month, also at a new high for the year. [30] - **Downstream Consumer Goods**: The decline in downstream consumer goods narrowed to single - digits for the first time. The combined year - on - year decline of three categories of consumer goods (medical materials and drugs, cosmetics, and automobiles) was - 9.9% (compared to - 25.1% previously), dragging down imports by - 0.2%. [30]