铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 2025-10-10 中航期货 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 | 歧， | 好， | 迟 | 方 | 游 | 产 | 美 | 符 | 假 | 期 | 延 | 分 | 外 | 下 | 合PMI | 向 | 面， | 化。 | 预 | 现 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 海 | 各 | 的 | 大 | 体 | 案， | 况， | 方 | 前 | 表 | 变 | 据 | 较 | 下 | 总 | 此 | 综 | 预 | 应 | 体 | 情 | | | | | | | | | | | 位。 | 绪 | 数 | 生 | ...

铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-10-10 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 | | | 多空焦点 PART 02 多空因素分析（铝） | 多 素 方 因 | 空 素 方 因 | | --- | --- | | 国 内 供 应 端 增 量 相 对 有 限 | 氧 化 铝 格 继 续 维 持 弱 势 价 | | 海 外 供 应 预 期 滑 下 | 海 外 宏 不 确 定 性 有 所 上 升 观 | | 会 库 存 继 续 处 低 位 社 于 | | 海外政治波动加大 进一步增强美联储降息预期 美东时间10月1日0时，美国联邦政府因资金用尽，时隔近七年再度"停摆"。数十万联邦雇员将被迫无薪休假，部分公共服务或暂停、延迟，经济数 据发布将受到影响。全球金融市场正面临新的不确定性。由于美国联邦政府"停摆"，美国劳工统计局未能按计划于3日公布月度就业数据统计报告。 由于非农数据延迟公布，ADP 由于非农数据延迟公布，ADP就业数据成为关键， ...

前言 10月6-7日，瑞士日内瓦世贸组织年度第四次会议，出了个前所未闻的场面。 以前聊贸易乱局，各国要么装哑巴，要么只敢小声抱怨，可这次连跟美国走得近的国家，都敢当众说美 国的不是。 全球贸易的乱局，根源就在美国，大家心知肚明可一直没人敢带头说透。 直到中国牵头提话题，不光点破了问题，还拿出了实在办法，各国这才敢放开说话。 为啥中国一出手，大家就有了底气？ 美国的操作："我拳头大我说了算" 要说全球贸易为啥乱，美国绝对是绕不开的主因。 这些年美国干的事，其实都是在拆"大家一起做贸易"的台，具体就两招，每招都戳中了各国的痛点。 第一招是搞"自己说了算的关税"，最典型的就是美国动不动就对别的国家加税，不管是对欧盟的钢铁、 铝材，还是对亚洲国家的电子产品。 理由换了一个又一个，本质上就是"我想加就加，不用跟谁商量"。而且这些关税根本不通过世贸组织 WTO，完全是美国自己拍板。 别的国家不服，想通过WTO申诉讨个说法，美国还故意让申诉流程卡壳，最后让申诉变成"没下文"。 第二招更狠，美国逼别的国家签"双边协议"，还得加个"坑人的条款"。 大家互相监督，这样就没人能偷偷搞小动作，避免少数国家的协议，坑了多数国家的利益。 ...

说起中国铝产业，山东这块地儿绝对是扛把子。2024年，山东氧化铝产量直接冲到2960万吨，占全球总产量的两成多，妥妥超过五分之一。 这可不是吹牛，全球氧化铝总产量1.42亿吨，中国占了大头，山东又在国内拔尖。 想想看，这么多铝从山东厂子里出来，支撑着从手机壳到高铁车的各种玩 意儿。山东为什么这么牛？不是天上掉馅饼，得从老底子说起，产业链一步步抠实了。 山东铝业这摊子事儿，起步早，根基稳。五十年代，淄博就建起国内头一个氧化铝厂，那时候全国氧化铝全靠它一个人扛，供了十二年。 后来本世纪头几年，山东抓住机会，在滨州邹平、聊城茌平、烟台龙口仨地方扎根，搞出三大基地。结果呢？直接冒出魏桥、信发、南山这三家大户，业内 叫"山东三铝"。这仨加一块儿，产量占全国一半多，山东铝就这么站稳了脚跟。 产能这块，山东也玩得转。2024年，山东不光氧化铝牛，铝材也产了1469万吨，电解铝900万吨。 全国铝材总产量6783万吨，山东就占了两成出头。 不过话说回来，山东也没死磕本地，早几年响应节能减排，电解铝产能从2018年的1200万吨左右，逐步往外挪，到2025年预计只剩400万吨。 这不是缩水， 是优化，腾空间给高端活儿干。结果产 ...

Investment Chain - Prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, gold, and silver have risen since September 2025. Fixed asset investment growth rate has decreased to 0.50%, with real estate development investment declining by 12.90% and manufacturing fixed asset investment growth at 5.10% [1] - Infrastructure investment growth rate has also decreased to 5.42%. Prices of tin and nickel have fallen, while the price of thermal coal has slightly increased to 676 RMB per ton [1] Consumption Chain - In August 2025, automobile sales growth rate increased to 16.44%, while home appliance retail sales growth rate decreased to 19.90%. The nominal growth rate of social consumption fell to 3.40% [2] - The cumulative nominal growth rate has decreased by 4.60%, and the sales area of commercial housing has seen a decline of 5.44% [2] Export Chain - In August 2025, export growth rate to the US decreased, while it increased for the EU, Japan, and ASEAN. The overall export growth rate rose to 25.52% [3] - Exports of furniture, refined oil, coke, ships, plastics, and auto parts have seen an increase, while agricultural products, toys, lighting, coal, steel, and aluminum exports have decreased [3] Price Chain - Oil prices have risen to 63.41 USD per barrel as of September 23, 2025. Prices for PVC have increased to 4695 RMB per ton, while prices for MDI have decreased [4] - Pork prices have dropped to 13.71 RMB per kilogram, and the price of domestic urea has also decreased compared to July 2025 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which was in line with expectations. In the medium term, the logic of continuous liquidity easing remains, but after the short - term bullish factors are realized, risk assets may experience a limited - amplitude correction [10]. - The main theme of the economy is still stable growth. China will implement a series of policies to expand service consumption [11][12]. - The supply of alumina is expected to remain in an oversupply situation, and the spot price is expected to continue to adjust weakly in the short term [22][25]. - In August, the output of primary aluminum changed little, and the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in September [26][27]. - The real - estate market is still under pressure, but the new policies in first - tier cities have provided some support to the market [33][34]. - The production and sales of automobiles, especially new - energy vehicles, showed a good growth trend in August [36][37]. - The inventories of domestic and foreign exchanges both increased, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate [39][42][43]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 01 Report Summary - The Fed's interest - rate cut was in line with expectations, with a neutral - to - hawkish attitude. Medium - term liquidity is expected to be loose, and short - term risk assets may correct slightly [10]. - China will implement policies to expand service consumption, including selecting pilot cities and promoting the application of AI [12]. - The supply of alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be weak. The output of primary aluminum changed little in August, and the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in September [25][27]. - The real - estate market is under pressure, but first - tier city policies have provided some support. The automobile market, especially new - energy vehicles, showed good growth [34][37]. 02 Multi - and Short - Focus - **Bullish factors**: The enterprise's production capacity utilization rate continues to increase, and the social inventory remains at a low level [7]. - **Bearish factors**: The price of aluminum oxide continues to decline, and the market shows a weak trend [7]. 03 Data Analysis - **Aluminum ore**: From January to July 2025, the domestic aluminum ore production increased. The import of bauxite from Guinea remained stable, but attention should be paid to the impact of the referendum [16][21]. - **Alumina**: In August 2025, the output of alumina was at a high level, and the supply - surplus situation remained unchanged. The spot price is expected to adjust weakly [25]. - **Primary aluminum**: In August 2025, the output of primary aluminum was 3.8 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. The operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in September [27]. - **Downstream processing**: The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased slightly, but high aluminum prices inhibited procurement [30]. - **Real - estate**: In August, the real - estate sales, investment, new - start, and completion areas all declined year - on - year. First - tier cities introduced policies, and the new - house transaction area in 38 cities increased year - on - year in early September [34]. - **Automobile**: In August, the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [37]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of LME and SHFE aluminum increased. The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate, and the spot premium decreased [39][43][45]. - **Recycled aluminum**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased slightly in August, and the operating rate increased slightly last week. The inventory of aluminum alloy increased [48][51][59]. - **Aluminum alloy imports and exports**: In July 2025, the import volume of unwrought aluminum alloy reached a four - year low, and the export volume increased year - on - year [54]. 04后市研判 - For Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to the support around 20,600 and wait for the verification of the peak season of domestic downstream demand [62]. - The price of aluminum alloy still fluctuates with the price of aluminum, and it is recommended to be bullish on dips [60].

Core Insights - China's aluminum production in August 2025 reached 5.548 million tons, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 1% but a year-on-year decline of 4.2% [1] - From January to August 2025, China's aluminum production totaled 43.79 million tons, remaining approximately flat year-on-year [1] - The demand for aluminum is currently transitioning between the off-peak and peak seasons, resulting in limited production growth [1]

Core Insights - China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) production in August 2025 reached 1.301 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [1] - Cumulative production from January to August 2025 totaled 9.891 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.1% [1] Production Data Summary - Total production of ten non-ferrous metals in August was 6.978 million tons, with a cumulative total of 54.317 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.8% for the month and 3.1% cumulatively [2] - Refined copper (electrolytic copper) production for August was 1.301 million tons, with a cumulative total of 9.891 million tons, indicating a year-on-year increase of 14.8% for the month and 10.1% cumulatively [2] - Lead production in August was 667,000 tons, with a cumulative total of 5.116 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7% for the month and 0.9% cumulatively [2] - Zinc production in August was 651,000 tons, with a cumulative total of 4.836 million tons, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 22.8% for the month and 5.4% cumulatively [2] - Primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production in August was 3.800 million tons, with a cumulative total of 30.138 million tons, indicating a slight decrease of 0.5% for the month but a 2.2% increase cumulatively [2] - Aluminum alloy production in August was 1.635 million tons, with a cumulative total of 12.324 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.2% for the month and 15.3% cumulatively [2] - Copper products production in August was 2.222 million tons, with a cumulative total of 16.598 million tons, indicating a year-on-year increase of 9.8% for the month and 10.7% cumulatively [2] - Aluminum products production in August was 5.548 million tons, with a cumulative total of 43.790 million tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of 4.2% for the month and no change cumulatively [2]

国家统计局数据显示，2025年8月中国氧化铝产量792.5万吨，同比增长7.5%；1-8月累计产量6052.3万 吨，同比增长8.2%。 8月铝合金产量163.5万吨，同比增长15.2%；1-8月累计产量1232.4吨，同比增长15.3%。 8月电解铝产量380.0万吨，同比下降0.5%；1-8月累计产量3013.8万吨，同比增长2.2%。 8月铝材产量554.8万吨，同比下降4.2%；1-8月累计产量4379.0万吨，同比持平。 资讯编辑：冯诗奇 021-26093556 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 ...

Core Viewpoint - Company conducted an online investor reception day to discuss recent performance and future development, addressing investor inquiries about recent acquisitions and financial recovery [1][2]. Group 1: Recent Acquisitions and Performance - Investors inquired about the performance of newly acquired companies, Henan Kangningte Environmental Technology Co., Ltd. and Zhengzhou Kangningte Environmental Engineering Technology Co., Ltd., with expectations for a turnaround in Q3 [1]. - Company confirmed that both acquired companies are operating normally and financial details can be found in relevant announcements [2]. Group 2: Strategic Direction and Market Position - In response to questions about continuous losses over the past five years, the company outlined its strategy to transition from plastic profiles to aluminum materials, windows, SCR denitration catalysts, and eco-friendly home products, emphasizing marketing innovation and market expansion [2]. - Company plans to continue industrial upgrades, enhance innovation, and deepen research in new materials to increase overall value [2]. Group 3: Financial Outlook and Technology Development - Company advised investors to monitor the Q3 report for revenue updates and potential profitability [3]. - Although not directly involved in large model projects, the company is focusing on technological innovation and digitalization, having implemented an industrial internet platform and financial shared services to improve internal collaboration [3]. Group 4: Stock Performance and Market Factors - Company acknowledged that stock price fluctuations are influenced by industry conditions and market sentiment, committing to enhance operational and investment strategies to create shareholder value [3].