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中航期货铝月报-20250829
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 11:40
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, domestic bauxite prices are stable, and the change in Shanxi's mining rights transfer registration has limited impact on domestic bauxite production. With high operating capacity and output, and the possibility of increased imported alumina inflows, there is a strong expectation of supply surplus, putting pressure on prices. - For electrolytic aluminum, in September, the overseas focus is on the US Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting. It is likely that there will be a rate cut in September. The supply changes little, and the operating output increases slightly. As the seasonal consumption peak approaches, the downstream start - up rate rises slightly, but the inventory continues to accumulate. Macro and fundamental factors may lead to the aluminum price oscillating strongly, with resistance at the 21000 - 21500 level, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. - For cast aluminum alloy, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and some enterprises have reduced or stopped production due to tax policy adjustments. The demand in the communication field is picking up, and the market is at the transition stage from the off - season to the peak season. The spot price is expected to remain firm, and the price difference between the alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow. The reference operating range for the main contract is 20000 - 20600 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Outlook - **Alumina**: Domestic bauxite price stability, high production, and possible imported inflows lead to supply surplus and price pressure. Pay attention to the new industrial plan and the situation in Guinea [6]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Focus on the US Fed's September interest - rate meeting. Supply is stable with a slight increase, demand is approaching the peak season, but inventory is still accumulating. Aluminum price may oscillate strongly, and a buying - on - dips strategy is recommended [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, tax policy affects production, demand is showing signs of improvement, and the price is expected to be firm with a narrowing price difference [6]. 2. Market Review - In August, the futures prices of alumina and electrolytic aluminum showed different trends. Alumina futures prices generally weakened, with a monthly decline of 9.38% from a high of 3317 yuan/ton to a low of 3006 yuan/ton, while electrolytic aluminum futures prices rose slightly, reaching a high of 20950 yuan/ton [8][9]. 3. Macroeconomic Aspects - **US Economy**: In July, non - farm employment data was poor, but the employment level remained relatively low. Credit ratings were stable. Economic data such as PMI and inflation showed mixed trends. After Powell's speech, the market increased bets on a September rate cut [13]. - **Eurozone Economy**: Economic data improved significantly. Manufacturing PMI in Germany and France rose, and the eurozone's PMI broke above the boom - bust line. The ECB's rate - cut expectation remained stable [15]. - **Chinese Economy**: Overall, it was stable. Industrial added value, consumption, investment, and other data showed different trends. The economy faced some pressure in July - August, and more policy support was expected in the second half of the year [20]. - **Exchange Rate and Policy**: The US dollar exchange rate fluctuated greatly, while the RMB remained relatively stable. With the strengthening of the RMB and the expectation of a US rate cut, there is still significant policy space in the fourth quarter, and further rate cuts and reserve - requirement ratio cuts are possible [25]. - **US Steel and Aluminum Tariffs**: The expansion of the US steel and aluminum import tariff scope had limited impact on domestic aluminum prices [27]. 4. Fundamental Aspects - **Bauxite**: Shanxi's mining rights policy had limited short - term impact on supply. In July, domestic bauxite production increased year - on - year. Guinea's rainy season affected bauxite shipments, and domestic supply may face a tight balance [28][31][35]. - **Alumina**: Although there were short - term supply disturbances, the operating capacity and output were high. Import inflows may increase, and there is a strong expectation of supply surplus and price pressure [38]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: It maintained high profits, and the growth space of production was limited. Overseas, there were a few incremental capacities. The downstream processing industry's start - up rate increased slightly, and the demand in the new energy and automotive industries was growing, while the real - estate demand was still weak [42][45][54]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory was stable, and the domestic aluminum ingot inventory inflection point was approaching. The regeneration aluminum industry was facing challenges such as production reduction and inventory accumulation, and the import volume in July was at a four - year low [72][75][79].