Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The marginal increase in supply is slight and does not dominate the market. In the current situation of intensified game between macro - sentiment and fundamental data, the market needs time to digest, and it is difficult to have a trending market in the short term [4]. - The market's pricing focus is on "whether it far exceeds expectations" rather than "good or bad". Due to the lack of prominent unilateral contradictions in non - ferrous metals in the short term, the market over - trades expectations on key data, and data that meets or slightly exceeds expectations is interpreted as "falling short of expectations" [5]. - The long - term tight - balance supply - demand logic of aluminum has not been impacted, and the limited supply increase has limited impact on prices [18]. Summary by Directory 1. Overseas Aluminum Plant Production - **Production Progress Update**: During the Spring Festival, overseas electrolytic aluminum plants were actively in production. Indonesia's Juwann Aluminum (Weida Bay/Small K Island) has reached full production; Indonesia's Pioneer Aluminum (in the same park as Juwann) is expected to start production in early Q3; Iceland's Grundartangi Aluminum Plant's resumption of production is advanced to the end of April; the actual production of Angola Huatong Aluminum Industrial Park has slightly increased compared to the end - of - 2025 expectation [5]. - **Production Forecast Adjustment**: The report revises up the expected new overseas electrolytic aluminum production in 2026 to 760,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons from before the Spring Festival. As of the report release, the actual production capacity is 10,000 tons more than the end - of - 2025 expectation [10]. - **Specific Factory Updates**: Four factory production expectations are revised up, including Juwann Aluminum reaching full production as expected, Pioneer Aluminum expected to start production in Q3, Grundartangi Aluminum advancing resumption to April, and Angola Huatong Aluminum Industrial Park having good production progress [11]. 2. Domestic Aluminum Plant Production - **Domestic Production Remains Unchanged**: The expected new domestic electrolytic aluminum projects in 2026 are provided, with a total planned new capacity of 2093,000 tons, and a net increase of 1127,000 tons in 2026. The overall domestic production plan remains stable [14]. 3. Supply - Demand Balance - **Global Supply - Demand**: The report provides supply - demand balance tables for overseas, China, and the world from 2020 - 2026E. The global supply of aluminum shows an increasing trend, and the consumption also shows growth. The market is in a tight - balance state, with small supply - demand gaps in different years [17]. 4. Cost and Profit - **Cost Factors**: Alumina prices have been falling since mid - 2025, reaching the mid - 2021 level, which is one of the reasons for the increased profits of aluminum plants. Electricity prices and pre - baked anodes are in a range - bound state with no significant changes [24]. - **Profit Changes**: The average profit of electrolytic aluminum has dropped from about 8700 yuan/ton last week to 7000 yuan/ton this week due to the decline in futures aluminum prices. The average cost of electrolytic aluminum in the country has slightly increased to 16200 yuan/ton, mainly due to a 0.01 yuan/degree increase in the average electricity price [28]. 5. Internal - External Price Ratio - **Ratio Fluctuation**: The Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic aluminum rose to a high at the beginning of the year and then declined. During the Spring Festival, LME aluminum prices first fell and then rose, and the domestic market followed but lacked follow - through [33]. 6. Downstream and Inventory - **Downstream开工率**: The downstream开工率 is at a seasonal low, especially for aluminum plates, strips, and foils, which are at a historical low. Most downstream enterprises are expected to return to work after the Lantern Festival, and the开工率 is expected to gradually stabilize and recover [46]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of Monday, the electrolytic aluminum出库量 was 106,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from two weeks ago. As of Thursday, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 914,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from Monday. As of Wednesday, the LME aluminum inventory was 495,200 tons, a decrease of 4800 tons from the previous week. The aluminum rod出库量 was 0 tons on Monday, a decrease of 42,000 tons from two weeks ago, and the social inventory of aluminum rods was 276,500 tons on Thursday, an increase of 13,000 tons from Monday. The aluminum rod processing fee fluctuated after falling from a high this week [49][57].