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铝周报:国内“反内卷”情绪降温-20250802
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-02 13:57
国内"反内卷"情绪降温 铝周报 2025/08/02 0755-23375135 wukjl@wkqh.cn 从业资格号:F3036210 交易咨询号:Z0015924 吴坤金(有色金属组) CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 02 期现市场 06 需求端 03 利润库存 07 进出口 04 成本端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应端:根据SMM调研数据,截止7月底,国内电解铝运行产能约4390万吨,产能置换投产后行业运行产能小幅提升,产量372.1万吨,同比 增长1.1%。进入8月,电解铝运行产能将维持高位,产量或环比持平略升。 ◆ 库存&现货:国内铝锭库存环比增加,录得54.4万吨,环比增加3.4万吨;保税区库存环比减少0.3至10.8万吨;LME市场铝库存周环比增加1.2 至46.3万吨。周五国内铝锭现货贴水期货20元/吨,LME市场Cash/3M贴水2.6美元/吨。 ◆ 进出口:2025年6月我国出口未锻轧铝及铝材49万吨,环比减少逾5万吨,1-6月累计出口量为292万吨,同比下降8%。近期国内铝现货进口亏 损有所收缩。 ◆ 需求端:据爱择咨询调研,周 ...
瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250624
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 10:52
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of excessive supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a situation where supply is relatively stable and demand is converging during the off - season. The option market sentiment is bearish. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a situation of both supply and demand weakness, with a slight accumulation of industrial inventory. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,315 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,903 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum and alumina decreased by 3,512 and 4,645 hands respectively [2]. - The LME aluminum three - month quotation was 2,592 US dollars/ton, up 30.5 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 340,975 tons, down 1,875 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.84, down 0.11 [2]. - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 19,625 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the main contract position decreased by 180 hands [2]. Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,540 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,130 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 375 yuan/ton, down 335 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was 225 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The alumina production was 748.80 million tons, up 16.50 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 693.70 million tons, down 30.02 million tons [2]. - The import of alumina was 6.75 million tons, up 5.68 million tons; the export was 21.00 million tons, down 5.00 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 42.70 million tons, up 1.40 million tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,520.20 million tons, up 2.00 million tons [2]. - The production of aluminum materials was 576.20 million tons, down 0.20 million tons; the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum materials was 55.00 million tons, up 3.00 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The production of regenerative aluminum alloy ingots was 61.60 million tons, up 3.37 million tons; the production of aluminum alloy was 164.50 million tons, up 11.70 million tons [2]. - The automobile production was 264.20 million vehicles, up 3.80 million vehicles; the National Housing Prosperity Index was 93.72, down 0.13 [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 10.35%, up 0.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.57%, down 0.05% [2]. - The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money was 9.25%, down 0.0175%; the put - call ratio was 0.91, up 0.0249 [2].