Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - Aluminum prices are expected to show a volatile and slightly upward trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to wait and see for option contracts [3][32] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - As of last week, the price of the main contract AL2605 of Shanghai aluminum futures showed a downward trend, ranging from around 23,100 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 25,315 yuan/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - From January to February, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year in real terms. In February, it increased by 0.83% month-on-month. From January to February, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 527.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year. In February, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 0.39% month-on-month [2][11][31] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - In February 2026, the alumina supply surplus was 80,000 tons, compared with a supply gap of 130,000 tons last month. From a seasonal perspective, the current supply - demand balance is at a relatively high level compared with the past five years. In January 2026, the cumulative surplus of electrolytic aluminum supply was 218,200 tons. From a seasonal perspective, the current supply - demand balance is at an average level compared with the past five years [16] 4. Inventory Situation - As of March 20, 2026, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 452,044 tons, an increase of 35,619 tons from the previous week. As of March 19, 2026, the LME aluminum inventory was 432,725 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 36.57%. As of March 19, 2026, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 1.299 million tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from the previous day [22] 5. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The import volume of bauxite has decreased, and the global alumina supply surplus has eased. The global supply and demand of electrolytic aluminum are basically balanced. The in - production capacity of alumina in China has been continuously decreasing, and the alumina operating rate has declined. The electrolytic aluminum capacity in China is approaching full - load operation, and the in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum has been slowly increasing. The Shanghai aluminum inventory has continued to rise significantly, and the inventory level is at the highest in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory has decreased significantly, and the inventory level remains at a relatively low level in recent years [2][31] 6. Future Outlook - Aluminum prices are expected to show a volatile and slightly upward trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to wait and see for option contracts [3][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The ongoing Middle East conflict and the planned maintenance of the Mozambique aluminum smelter by South32 pose significant threats to overseas aluminum supply. Overseas low inventories and strong spot prices are expected to continue. In China, the downstream operating rate is rising, the proportion of molten aluminum has returned to a relatively normal level, and with the decline in aluminum prices and the widening import losses, inventories are expected to peak and decline. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. The operating range of the main Shanghai aluminum contract is expected to be between 24,500 - 25,800 yuan/ton, and the operating range of LME aluminum 3M is expected to be between 3,350 - 3,580 US dollars/ton [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: As of the end of February 2026, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 45.109 million tons. In February, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.1% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month. It is expected to rise in March. The proportion of molten aluminum continued to increase this week. In February 2026, overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.372 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.5%. In March, the 40% production cut of Qatar Aluminum due to the Middle East conflict and the restricted raw material supply in the Middle East will bring significant disturbances to electrolytic aluminum production in the region, and the growth rate of overseas electrolytic aluminum production is expected to decline [12]. - **Inventory & Spot**: On March 12, aluminum ingot inventory was 1.31 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,000 tons. Bonded area inventory was 48,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons. Aluminum rod inventory was 386,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,000 tons. On March 13, LME aluminum inventory was 445,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,000 tons. The spot discount of East China aluminum ingots fluctuated, and the LME market Cash/3M maintained a premium [12]. - **Import and Export**: From January to February 2026, the export volumes of unforged aluminum and aluminum products were 541,000 tons and 430,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 16.1% respectively. The cumulative export from January to February was 971,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%. This week, the import loss of Shanghai aluminum spot widened [12]. - **Demand**: According to SMM research, in the first week after the Spring Festival, the operating rate of domestic downstream leading aluminum enterprises increased by 2.4% week - on - week to 61.9%. Among them, the operating rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum rods increased significantly, while the operating rate of aluminum foil remained stable. Recently, the decline in high - frequency real estate transaction data compared with last year has narrowed, and the photovoltaic production schedule is expected to be slightly better [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Aluminum prices rose and then fell. Shanghai aluminum rose 0.99% to 24,960 yuan/ton during the week (as of Friday afternoon's close), and LME aluminum rose 0.23% to 3,439 US dollars/ton. The near - month contract was relatively strong, and the discount between the first - and third - month contracts narrowed [21][25]. - **Spot Market**: The spot discount of aluminum ingots in various regions fluctuated and narrowed, and the spot basis in East China increased. The LME aluminum Cash/3M maintained a premium [29][39]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The smelting profit of primary aluminum remained at a high level, maintaining a historical high [46]. - **Inventory**: On March 12, aluminum ingot inventory was 1.31 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,000 tons; bonded area inventory was 48,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons; aluminum rod inventory was 386,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,000 tons. On March 13, LME global aluminum inventory was 445,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,000 tons, still at a multi - year low. In February 2026, the proportion of aluminum from India in LME aluminum ingot inventory increased to 36.2%, and the proportion of aluminum from Russia increased to 59.8% [49][53][56][59]. 3.4 Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: Domestic bauxite prices were stable, and overseas bauxite prices rebounded [64]. - **Alumina Price**: Domestic alumina prices fluctuated and rebounded, and imported alumina prices rebounded slightly [69]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost**: Anode prices remained stable, and thermal coal prices declined [74]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Alumina**: In February 2026, the operating capacity of alumina decreased month - on - month, and the monthly output decreased by 10.5% month - on - month and 0.7% year - on - year [79]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of February 2026, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 45.109 million tons. In February, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.1% year - on - year and decreased by 8.9% month - on - month. It is expected to rise in March, with a year - on - year increase of about 2.8%. In February 2026, overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.372 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.5%. In March, the production cut of Qatar Aluminum due to the Middle East conflict and the planned maintenance of the Mozambique electrolytic aluminum plant by South32 are expected to lead to a decline in the production growth rate [82]. - **Molten Aluminum Proportion**: The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased, and the proportion of molten aluminum continued to increase this week. In February 2026, the domestic molten aluminum proportion decreased by 7.7 percentage points month - on - month to 64.4%. In March, with the resumption of work and production of downstream enterprises, the molten aluminum proportion is expected to increase by 9.2 percentage points month - on - month [85]. - **Provincial - Level Production of Electrolytic Aluminum**: In February 2026, the electrolytic aluminum production of each province decreased month - on - month compared with January [88]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Aluminum Product Output**: In December 2025, China's aluminum product output was 6.136 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. The cumulative output from January to December was 67.504 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. As of March 9, the daily aluminum ingot delivery volume was 95,000 tons, which increased month - on - month but was still lower than the same period last year [92]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: In February 2026, the operating rate of aluminum rods, aluminum profiles, and plate - strip - foil was weak. The operating rate of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots decreased month - on - month and increased slightly year - on - year. The operating rate of aluminum rods weakened seasonally. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The price difference between aluminum ingots and aluminum alloys narrowed month - on - month [95][99][103][108]. - **Terminal Demand**: In March 2026, the production schedule of household air conditioners decreased by 6.1% compared with the actual output of the same period last year, the production schedule of refrigerators increased by 1.6%, and the production schedule of washing machines decreased by 3.4%. The decline in high - frequency real estate transaction data compared with last year has narrowed, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules in March increased month - on - month [111]. 3.7 Import and Export - **Primary Aluminum Import**: In December 2025, China's primary aluminum import volume was 189,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.5% and a year - on - year increase of 17.2%. The cumulative import volume from January to December was 2.538 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. The import loss of aluminum ingot spot widened [116]. - **Aluminum Product Export**: From January to February 2026, the export volumes of unforged aluminum and aluminum products were 541,000 tons and 430,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 16.1% respectively. The cumulative export from January to February was 971,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% [123]. - **Recycled Aluminum Import**: In December 2025, the recycled aluminum import volume was 194,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons. The cumulative import volume from January to December was 2.015 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.1% [123]. - **Bauxite and Alumina Import and Export**: In December 2025, China's bauxite import volume was 14.673 million tons, and the proportion of imported ore was 72.5%. The cumulative bauxite import from January to December was 200.532 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.3%. In December 2025, China's alumina export was 206,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. The cumulative alumina export from January to December was 2.548 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.7% [126].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The marginal increase in supply is slight and does not dominate the market. In the current situation of intensified game between macro - sentiment and fundamental data, the market needs time to digest, and it is difficult to have a trending market in the short term [4]. - The market's pricing focus is on "whether it far exceeds expectations" rather than "good or bad". Due to the lack of prominent unilateral contradictions in non - ferrous metals in the short term, the market over - trades expectations on key data, and data that meets or slightly exceeds expectations is interpreted as "falling short of expectations" [5]. - The long - term tight - balance supply - demand logic of aluminum has not been impacted, and the limited supply increase has limited impact on prices [18]. Summary by Directory 1. Overseas Aluminum Plant Production - **Production Progress Update**: During the Spring Festival, overseas electrolytic aluminum plants were actively in production. Indonesia's Juwann Aluminum (Weida Bay/Small K Island) has reached full production; Indonesia's Pioneer Aluminum (in the same park as Juwann) is expected to start production in early Q3; Iceland's Grundartangi Aluminum Plant's resumption of production is advanced to the end of April; the actual production of Angola Huatong Aluminum Industrial Park has slightly increased compared to the end - of - 2025 expectation [5]. - **Production Forecast Adjustment**: The report revises up the expected new overseas electrolytic aluminum production in 2026 to 760,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons from before the Spring Festival. As of the report release, the actual production capacity is 10,000 tons more than the end - of - 2025 expectation [10]. - **Specific Factory Updates**: Four factory production expectations are revised up, including Juwann Aluminum reaching full production as expected, Pioneer Aluminum expected to start production in Q3, Grundartangi Aluminum advancing resumption to April, and Angola Huatong Aluminum Industrial Park having good production progress [11]. 2. Domestic Aluminum Plant Production - **Domestic Production Remains Unchanged**: The expected new domestic electrolytic aluminum projects in 2026 are provided, with a total planned new capacity of 2093,000 tons, and a net increase of 1127,000 tons in 2026. The overall domestic production plan remains stable [14]. 3. Supply - Demand Balance - **Global Supply - Demand**: The report provides supply - demand balance tables for overseas, China, and the world from 2020 - 2026E. The global supply of aluminum shows an increasing trend, and the consumption also shows growth. The market is in a tight - balance state, with small supply - demand gaps in different years [17]. 4. Cost and Profit - **Cost Factors**: Alumina prices have been falling since mid - 2025, reaching the mid - 2021 level, which is one of the reasons for the increased profits of aluminum plants. Electricity prices and pre - baked anodes are in a range - bound state with no significant changes [24]. - **Profit Changes**: The average profit of electrolytic aluminum has dropped from about 8700 yuan/ton last week to 7000 yuan/ton this week due to the decline in futures aluminum prices. The average cost of electrolytic aluminum in the country has slightly increased to 16200 yuan/ton, mainly due to a 0.01 yuan/degree increase in the average electricity price [28]. 5. Internal - External Price Ratio - **Ratio Fluctuation**: The Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic aluminum rose to a high at the beginning of the year and then declined. During the Spring Festival, LME aluminum prices first fell and then rose, and the domestic market followed but lacked follow - through [33]. 6. Downstream and Inventory - **Downstream开工率**: The downstream开工率 is at a seasonal low, especially for aluminum plates, strips, and foils, which are at a historical low. Most downstream enterprises are expected to return to work after the Lantern Festival, and the开工率 is expected to gradually stabilize and recover [46]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of Monday, the electrolytic aluminum出库量 was 106,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from two weeks ago. As of Thursday, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 914,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from Monday. As of Wednesday, the LME aluminum inventory was 495,200 tons, a decrease of 4800 tons from the previous week. The aluminum rod出库量 was 0 tons on Monday, a decrease of 42,000 tons from two weeks ago, and the social inventory of aluminum rods was 276,500 tons on Thursday, an increase of 13,000 tons from Monday. The aluminum rod processing fee fluctuated after falling from a high this week [49][57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, aluminum prices experienced a significant surge followed by a decline due to geopolitical situations and the sharp fluctuations in precious metal prices. Currently, the inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods continues to accumulate. High prices combined with the off - season for demand result in weak downstream demand, but this does not constitute a major negative factor for prices. The LME aluminum inventory remains at a relatively low level, and the high premium of US aluminum spot provides strong support for aluminum prices. If the volatility of precious metals decreases and the domestic inventory performance is better than the seasonal average, aluminum prices are expected to stabilize. The reference range for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum is 24,000 - 25,200 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M aluminum is 3,050 - 3,220 US dollars/ton [11][13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: As of the end of January 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was approximately 44.996 million tons. In January, the electrolytic aluminum output increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month. It is expected that the operating capacity will remain relatively stable in February, and some new electrolytic aluminum projects will gradually increase production. In January 2026, the domestic aluminum water ratio decreased by 4.4% month - on - month to 72.1%, and it is expected to continue to decline in February [11]. - Inventory & Spot: According to MYSTEEL data, the aluminum ingot inventory on Thursday was 800,000 tons, an increase of 32,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The bonded area inventory was 46,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The total aluminum rod inventory was 253,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The LME global aluminum inventory was 494,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to last week. The spot basis of domestic East China aluminum ingots weakened, and the LME market Cash/3M discount widened [11]. - Import and Export: In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 189,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.5% and a year - on - year increase of 17.2%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.538 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. In December, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 545,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4%. The cumulative export from January to December was 6.134 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0%. Recently, the loss of Shanghai aluminum spot imports has narrowed [11]. - Demand: According to SMM research, the comprehensive operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing this week decreased by 1.5% to 59.4% compared to last week. Among them, the operating rate of aluminum profiles declined significantly, while the operating rates of aluminum sheets, strips, foils, rods, and alloys decreased slightly, and the operating rate of aluminum cables remained flat. Before the Spring Festival, the demand for photovoltaic frames was strong, while other profile enterprises gradually took long holidays. Coupled with the relatively high aluminum prices, the downstream提货 willingness was general [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Aluminum prices experienced a significant surge followed by a decline. Shanghai aluminum rose 1.1% to 24,560 yuan/ton this week (as of the Friday afternoon close), while LME aluminum fell 1.2% to 3,135 US dollars/ton [23]. - Term Spread: After the aluminum price surge and decline, the near - month contract was relatively resistant to the decline, and the contango between the first - and third - month contracts narrowed [26]. - Spot Basis: The discounts in East China, South China, and Central China widened compared to last week [29]. - Regional Premium and Discount Spread: The East China spot was relatively strong [34]. - LME Premium and Discount: The LME aluminum Cash/3M discount widened [37]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Profit: The primary aluminum smelting profit increased compared to last week and was at a historical high [44]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory: According to MYSTEEL data, the aluminum ingot inventory on Thursday was 800,000 tons, an increase of 32,000 tons compared to last Thursday. According to SMM statistics, the bonded area inventory was 46,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The total aluminum rod inventory was 253,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared to last Thursday. The LME global aluminum inventory was 494,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons compared to last week, still at a relatively low level in recent years. In December 2025, the proportion of aluminum from India in the LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased to 39.5%, and the total inventory decreased [49][52][55][58]. 3.4. Cost Side - Bauxite Price: Domestic bauxite prices fluctuated and declined, while overseas bauxite prices remained stable month - on - month [61]. - Alumina Price: Domestic alumina prices continued to decline, while import prices stabilized [66]. 3.5. Supply Side - Alumina: In January 2026, the monthly alumina output decreased by 1.8% month - on - month compared to December 2025 and 2.6% year - on - year compared to January 2025. Routine maintenance at the beginning of the year caused a slight contraction in operating capacity. It is expected that the operating capacity will continue to decline in February [76]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of January 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was approximately 44.996 million tons. In January, the electrolytic aluminum output increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month. It is expected that the operating capacity will remain relatively stable in February, and some new electrolytic aluminum projects will gradually increase production. In December 2025, the overseas electrolytic aluminum output was 258,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%, with an annual output increase of approximately 2.8% [79]. - Aluminum Water Ratio: This week, the aluminum rod processing fee first increased and then decreased. In January 2026, the domestic aluminum water ratio decreased by 4.4% month - on - month to 72.1%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot casting volume increased by 19.4% month - on - month and decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. In the context of the off - season for downstream demand in February, the aluminum water ratio is expected to decrease by 7.7%. This week, the decline in the aluminum water ratio of domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises slightly widened [82]. - Provincial Output of Electrolytic Aluminum: In December 2025, the electrolytic aluminum output of each province increased month - on - month compared to November [87]. 3.6. Demand Side - Aluminum Product Output: In December 2025, China's aluminum product output was 6.136 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. The cumulative output from January to December was 67.504 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. As of January 26, 2026, the daily aluminum ingot出库 volume was 133,000 tons, an increase compared to last week [91]. - Downstream Operating Rate: In December 2025, the operating rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum sheets, strips, and foils decreased month - on - month. The operating rates of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum rods increased month - on - month. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased. This week, the price difference between aluminum ingots and aluminum alloys widened by 329 yuan/ton to 1,145 yuan/ton [97][100][103]. - Terminal Demand: According to the production scheduling reports of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, in February 2026, the production schedule of household air conditioners was 1.149 million units, a 31.6% decrease compared to the actual output of the same period last year; the production schedule of refrigerators was 600,000 units, a 17% decrease compared to the actual output of the same period last year; the production schedule of washing machines was 630,000 units, a 3.2% decrease compared to the actual output of the same period last year. In December 2025, the real estate data continued to be weak, the production and sales of automobiles weakened marginally, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules was strong [106]. 3.7. Import and Export - Primary Aluminum Import: In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 189,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.5% and a year - on - year increase of 17.2%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.538 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. This week, the loss of aluminum ingot spot imports narrowed. In December 2025, aluminum ingot imports mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Australia, etc., and the import volume from Russia increased to 76% [111][115]. - Aluminum Product Export: In December 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 545,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4%. The cumulative export from January to December was 6.134 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0% [118]. - Recycled Aluminum Import: In December 2025, the recycled aluminum import volume was 194,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons month - on - month. The cumulative import volume from January to December was 2.015 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.1% [118]. - Bauxite Import: In December 2025, China's bauxite imports were 14.673 million tons, with an import ore proportion of 72.5%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to December were 200.532 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.3% [121]. - Alumina Export: In December 2025, China's alumina exports were 206,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to December were 2.548 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.7% [121].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The alumina market is expected to be in a stage of excess supply and stable demand. Traders are advised to conduct light - position oscillating trades, controlling the rhythm and trading risks[2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market is likely to be in a state of tight supply - demand balance with a slight reduction in industrial inventory and long - term positive expectations. Traders are recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades on dips, controlling the rhythm and trading risks[2]. - The cast aluminum alloy market may face a situation of slightly decreasing supply and slowing demand, with high - level industrial inventory and slight destocking. Traders are suggested to conduct light - position oscillating trades, controlling the rhythm and trading risks[2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 22,220 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the main contract position was 314,299 lots, down 7,940 lots; the LME aluminum three - month quotation was 2,945 US dollars/ton, up 29 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 519,600 tons, unchanged; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.54, down 0.06[2]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,498 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 111 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; the main contract position was 151,207 lots, down 11,147 lots; the inventory of alumina was 197,566 tons, down 61,270 tons[2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 21,290 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 95 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the main contract position was 17,184 lots, down 32 lots[2]. Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum was 21,930 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 21,840 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 21,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan[2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,655 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan[2]. Upstream Situation - The production of alumina was 813.80 million tons, up 27.30 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 730.23 million tons, up 25.92 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina was 37.98 million tons, down 8.87 million tons[2]. - The import quantity of aluminum scrap and fragments was 162,756.17 tons, up 4,396.16 tons; the export quantity was 71.53 tons, up 39.07 tons; the export quantity of alumina was 17.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons; the import quantity was 23.24 million tons, up 4.31 million tons[2]. Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,524.20 million tons, up 1.00 million tons; the production of electrolytic aluminum was 593.10 million tons, up 23.70 million tons; the export quantity of unforged aluminum and aluminum products was 57.00 million tons, up 7.00 million tons[2]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 70.00 million tons, up 9.17 million tons; the export quantity of aluminum alloy was 3.06 million tons, down 0.03 million tons[2]. Downstream and Application - The production of automobiles was 351.90 million vehicles, up 24.00 million vehicles; the National Housing Prosperity Index was 91.90, down 0.52[2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 12.82%, unchanged; the 40 - day historical volatility was 12.38%, down 0.07%; the implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main - contract at - the - money IV was 13.48%, up 0.0147; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.60, down 0.0142[2]. Industry News - The central economic work conference listed "insisting on innovation - driven and accelerating the cultivation and growth of new kinetic energy" as one of the key tasks for next year's economic work, and relevant departments are actively deploying the work focus for 2026[2]. - The central economic work conference proposed to "promote the construction of a unified national market in depth and rectify 'involution - style' competition", and for the first time proposed to formulate regulations on the construction of a unified national market. The State Administration for Market Regulation issued a compliance guide on price behavior in the automotive industry[2]. - In the context of the overall real - estate sales market not yet turning positive, some cities showed a stable and positive trend. From January to November this year, the total transaction volume of new and second - hand houses in seven cities such as Shenzhen and Nanchang increased by more than 5% year - on - year[2]. - Different Fed officials had different views on interest - rate cuts. Some advocated cutting rates, some thought it was due to technical factors and were not in a hurry to adjust monetary policy, and some were worried about high inflation and preferred to keep interest rates stable until next spring[2].

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully completed a share placement to meet domestic and international project needs and debt repayment, which is expected to optimize its asset structure and quality in the future [1] Group 1: Share Placement and Fund Allocation - The company announced the completion of a share placement and subscription agreement, issuing a total of 400 million shares at a subscription price of HKD 29.20 per share, with expected net proceeds of approximately HKD 11.49 billion [1] - Of the proceeds, 60% (approximately HKD 6.894 billion) will be used for the development and enhancement of domestic and international projects, with significant capital expenditures planned for the next three months [1] - 30% (approximately HKD 3.447 billion) will be allocated for repaying existing debts to optimize the company's capital structure, with total debts due before June 30, 2026, amounting to approximately HKD 54 billion [1] - The remaining 10% (approximately HKD 1.149 billion) will be used for working capital and general corporate purposes, including coal procurement and other raw materials [1] Group 2: Future Development and Shareholder Confidence - The controlling shareholder, Hongqiao Holdings, has increased its stake in the company, purchasing 7.5 million shares at an average price of approximately HKD 30.54 per share, raising its ownership from 63.94% to 64.02% [2] - Following the share placement, Hongqiao Holdings' stake decreased to 59.82%, but after the subscription, it increased to 61.44%, indicating strong confidence in the company's future development [2] Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Outlook - China Hongqiao's subsidiary, Shandong Hongqiao, reported a 6% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters, totaling RMB 116.93 billion, with a 23% increase in net profit to RMB 19.37 billion [3] - The third quarter saw revenue of RMB 38.7 billion, a 2% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of RMB 6.9 billion, an 18% year-on-year increase, driven by improved profitability in the electrolytic aluminum sector [3] - The average aluminum price in China has risen to RMB 21,407 per ton since Q4 2025, supported by tight global supply and increasing demand, which is expected to benefit the company [3][4] Group 4: New Project Contributions - The company’s West Simandou iron ore project has officially commenced production, with an expected output of 30 million tons in the first year and reaching full capacity in the second year, which is anticipated to enhance the company's performance [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The US counter - tariff has been implemented, the results of China - US economic and trade negotiations are not beyond expectations, and the domestic "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down. Black - series commodities have fluctuated and declined, with a slightly weak sentiment. Domestically, the relatively low inventory of aluminum ingots supports aluminum prices. However, given the off - season for downstream demand and pressure on export demand, the upside for aluminum prices is limited. In the short term, prices are likely to continue to fluctuate weakly. The operating range for the domestic main contract this week is expected to be between 20,200 - 20,700 yuan/ton, and for LME 3M aluminum, it is between 2,520 - 2,620 US dollars/ton [13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: As of the end of July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.9 million tons. After capacity replacement and commissioning, the industry's operating capacity increased slightly, with a production volume of 3.721 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. In August, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will remain at a high level, and production may increase slightly or remain flat month - on - month [13][76]. - **Inventory & Spot**: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 340,000 tons week - on - week to 544,000 tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 108,000 tons; the LME market aluminum inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 463,000 tons. On Friday, the domestic aluminum ingot spot was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the futures, and the LME market Cash/3M was at a discount of 2.6 US dollars/ton [13]. - **Imports and Exports**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Recently, the domestic spot import loss of aluminum has shrunk [13]. - **Demand**: The weekly aluminum product operating rate continued to decline. The operating rates of aluminum sheets, foils, rods, profiles, and alloys all decreased, while the operating rate of aluminum rods increased slightly. The downstream is currently in the off - season, and the spot trading of aluminum remains weak. According to the production scheduling reports of three major white - goods released by Industry Online, in August 2025, the production schedule for household air conditioners is 1.144 million units, a 2.8% decrease compared to the actual production volume of the same period last year; for refrigerators, it is 762,000 units, a 9.5% decrease; and for washing machines, it is 791,000 units, a 3.0% decrease. The demand for household appliances is expected to be weak [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Aluminum prices fluctuated weakly. The main contract of Shanghai Aluminum fell 1.2% week - on - week (as of Friday's close), and LME aluminum closed down 2.26% to 2,571 US dollars/ton [22]. - **Term Spread**: The month - on - month spread rebounded slightly [27]. - **Spot Basis**: The basis of aluminum ingots in major domestic regions fluctuated and stabilized [30]. - **Regional Premium and Discount Spread**: The East China spot was weak, while the Central China spot was strong [35]. - **LME Premium and Discount**: LME aluminum Cash/3M was slightly at a discount [40]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The aluminum smelting profit declined to 3,367 yuan/ton [45]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 544,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 340,000 tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 108,000 tons. The aluminum rod inventory was 147,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons. The LME inventory increased by 12,000 tons to 463,000 tons due to LME warehousing [48][51][54]. 3.4 Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: There is no specific description of price changes in the report. - **Alumina Price**: The domestic alumina price increased, and the overseas alumina price rose slightly [63]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost**: The anode price declined, and the thermal coal price continued to rebound [68]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Alumina**: In July, China's actual operating capacity of alumina continued to increase by 2%, with an operating rate of 81.6%. Production increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and the overall supply was relatively sufficient [73]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.9 million tons, with a production volume of 3.721 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. In August, the operating capacity will remain high, and production may increase slightly or remain flat month - on - month [13][76]. - **Aluminum Water Ratio**: The aluminum rod processing fee fluctuated and rebounded. In July, the domestic aluminum water ratio decreased by 2.1 percentage points. It is estimated that the aluminum water ratio will rebound in August [79]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Aluminum Product Output and Aluminum Ingot Outbound**: The aluminum ingot outbound volume remained basically flat (as of the week ending July 28) [84]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: In June, the operating rates of aluminum rods, profiles, primary aluminum alloy ingots, and aluminum rods all declined, while the operating rate of aluminum sheets, foils, and strips increased slightly. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots rebounded but was recently weak [85][89][93][96]. - **Terminal Demand**: The demand for household appliances is expected to be weak. The current real - estate data is also weak, automobile production and sales are acceptable, and photovoltaic installations have decreased significantly, and related demand is also under pressure [99]. 3.7 Imports and Exports - **Aluminum Ingot Imports**: In June 2025, China imported 192,000 tons of primary aluminum, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 1.249 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Recently, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots has narrowed [102]. - **Aluminum Product Exports**: In June 2025, China exported 490,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month - on - month decrease of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8% [13][108]. - **Recycled Aluminum Imports**: In June 2025, the recycled aluminum import volume was 156,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The cumulative import volume in the first six months was 1.012 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.9% [108]. - **Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports**: In June 2025, China imported 18.12 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 36.2%. The cumulative import volume of bauxite from January to June was 103.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.6%. In June 2025, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month decrease of 17.7% and a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. The cumulative alumina export volume from January to June was 1.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.7% [111].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of excessive supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a situation where supply is relatively stable and demand is converging during the off - season. The option market sentiment is bearish. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a situation of both supply and demand weakness, with a slight accumulation of industrial inventory. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,315 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,903 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum and alumina decreased by 3,512 and 4,645 hands respectively [2]. - The LME aluminum three - month quotation was 2,592 US dollars/ton, up 30.5 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 340,975 tons, down 1,875 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.84, down 0.11 [2]. - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 19,625 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the main contract position decreased by 180 hands [2]. Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,540 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,130 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 375 yuan/ton, down 335 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was 225 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The alumina production was 748.80 million tons, up 16.50 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 693.70 million tons, down 30.02 million tons [2]. - The import of alumina was 6.75 million tons, up 5.68 million tons; the export was 21.00 million tons, down 5.00 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 42.70 million tons, up 1.40 million tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,520.20 million tons, up 2.00 million tons [2]. - The production of aluminum materials was 576.20 million tons, down 0.20 million tons; the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum materials was 55.00 million tons, up 3.00 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The production of regenerative aluminum alloy ingots was 61.60 million tons, up 3.37 million tons; the production of aluminum alloy was 164.50 million tons, up 11.70 million tons [2]. - The automobile production was 264.20 million vehicles, up 3.80 million vehicles; the National Housing Prosperity Index was 93.72, down 0.13 [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 10.35%, up 0.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.57%, down 0.05% [2]. - The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money was 9.25%, down 0.0175%; the put - call ratio was 0.91, up 0.0249 [2].