Group 1: Aluminum Market Overview - The main contract for Shanghai aluminum futures (AL2511) reached a high of 21,205 yuan/ton on October 10, marking an 11-month peak, but quickly retreated due to insufficient driving forces [1] - Domestic aluminum consumption is currently in a peak season, supported by low aluminum ingot inventories, leading to expectations of a strong oscillating trend in aluminum prices [1] Group 2: Electrolytic Aluminum Production and Inventory - In September, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.14% but a month-on-month decrease of 3.18% [3] - The aluminum water ratio increased by 1.2 percentage points to 76.3%, resulting in a year-on-year decrease in casting ingots by 8.67% to 857,000 tons [3] - As of the end of September, the industry’s operating capacity was 44.06 million tons, with a month-on-month increase driven by new projects in Shandong, Yunnan, and Guangxi [3] Group 3: Inventory Trends and Cost Analysis - During the National Day holiday, domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased by 81,000 tons, an 11.5% rise, aligning with expectations [4] - As of October 13, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major markets was 642,000 tons, a slight increase from October 9 but down 4,000 tons year-on-year [4] - The average production cost of electrolytic aluminum in September was 16,488 yuan/ton, down 1.37% month-on-month and 6.58% year-on-year, with average profits at 4,340 yuan/ton, an 8.63% increase [4] Group 4: Future Cost and Market Outlook - In October, the total cost of electrolytic aluminum is expected to decline, with average costs projected between 15,800 and 16,200 yuan/ton [5] - The automotive industry showed positive trends in September, with production and sales of 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles, respectively, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 16.4% and 12.9% [5] - The automotive sector is anticipated to continue growing, supported by favorable policies and increased supply of new products, despite external uncertainties [6] Group 5: Overall Market Sentiment - The aluminum market is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend, with resistance at 21,130 yuan/ton and support at 20,650 yuan/ton [6]