Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global electrolytic aluminum market remains in a tight balance, with a risk of the supply-demand gap widening. The recommended strategy is to buy on dips and take profits on sharp rallies, with the price expected to range between 22,000 - 25,000 [58]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Ore - Overseas - In Q2 2026, the long - term contract price of bauxite from Guinea is $70 per dry ton. In January - February 2026, bauxite imports increased by 18.7% year - on - year, and the ocean freight rate soared to $31 per ton [6][11]. - In 2026, overseas bauxite supply will grow rapidly, with an expected supply increase of 3000 - 4000 tons. The supply will be in excess, and the price is expected to decline. The price of bauxite in Q2 2026 is expected to range from $65 - 75 [14]. Aluminum Ore - Domestic - In January - February 2026, the domestic bauxite production increased by 6.2% year - on - year. The domestic bauxite supply is expected to remain tight in 2026, and the price will rise slightly in Q2 [19]. Alumina - Domestic - In January - February 2026, domestic alumina production increased by 4.2% year - on - year. As of the end of March, the alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, with an operating capacity of 93.75 million tons and an operating rate of 81.8% [26]. - Due to continuous losses and supply disruptions from a major manufacturer, the domestic alumina surplus situation improved in Q1 2026 but still showed a slight surplus [29]. - In 2026, nearly 10 million tons of new domestic alumina projects are planned, with the Q1 production postponed to Q2. The domestic alumina over - capacity pressure remains high [31]. Alumina - Overseas - In 2026, there are still many overseas alumina projects to be launched. The overseas alumina supply remains in surplus, and the supply surplus pressure increases due to a large number of overseas electrolytic aluminum production cuts [33]. Alumina - Strategy - The alumina industry is in a cost - pricing cycle. The high - cost projects in Shanxi and Henan need to exit to restore the supply - demand balance. The Q2 alumina futures price is expected to range from 2700 - 3300 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the possible cycle reversal driven by anti - involution policies [38]. Electrolytic Aluminum - In January - February 2026, domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 7.304 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.25%. The net import of aluminum ingots was 367,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons compared to the same period last year [43]. - In 2026, domestic electrolytic aluminum supply exceeded expectations, with more new capacity put into production in Q2, increasing the supply pressure [45]. - In 2025, overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 29.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. In 2026, it was 29.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0% due to supply disruptions in the Middle East [47]. Consumption - In 2025, the demand for electrolytic aluminum increased by 890,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. In 2026, the demand increased by 970,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. In January - February 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum demand growth rate was - 0.77%. Power, energy storage, and exports performed well, while the automotive, photovoltaic, and real - estate sectors performed poorly [51]. Balance Sheet & Core Viewpoints - Macro: Geopolitical issues in the Middle East have raised oil prices and inflation expectations. Under tightening expectations, US AI stocks have fallen, and macro funds have left the market. Attention should be paid to the long - term decline in demand [58]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum production cuts in the Middle East have significantly compressed the global electrolytic aluminum supply. Although demand faces long - term downward risks, it still shows short - term resilience. The global electrolytic aluminum market remains in a tight balance, and the supply - demand gap may widen. High domestic inventories suppress prices, while overseas inventories are relatively tight [58]. - Strategy: Buy on dips and take profits on sharp rallies. Keep rolling operations within the price range of 22,000 - 25,000 [58].