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神火股份(000933):减值拖累业绩,低成本电解铝盈利可期
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 41.24 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.5%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 7.0% to 4.01 billion yuan [8]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 8.0 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.79 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 44.6% [8]. - The report highlights significant asset impairments due to low coal prices and mine shutdowns, totaling 1.26 billion yuan, which negatively impacted Q4 performance [8]. - The company has a competitive advantage in electrolytic aluminum production, with a production capacity of 1.7 million tons and a stable production cost of approximately 12,000 yuan per ton, leading to a gross profit margin of 30.1% [8]. - The report anticipates that the company will achieve net profits of 8.56 billion yuan, 8.67 billion yuan, and 9.26 billion yuan for the years 2026 to 2028, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 8, 8, and 7 times, respectively [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 46.07 billion yuan, 45.63 billion yuan, and 46.11 billion yuan, respectively [9]. - The expected net profit for 2026 is 8.56 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 113.7% compared to 2025 [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 1.78 yuan in 2025 to 4.12 yuan by 2028 [9].