Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the long-term performance of the banking index, the factors driving its growth, and the current valuation, suggesting potential strategies for profit-taking. Group 1: Banking Index Performance - The representative index for the banking industry is the China Securities Banking Index, which has shown significant growth in recent years, particularly from 2019 to 2021, driven by a strong growth style. In contrast, from 2022 to 2024, value styles, including banking and dividend stocks, have gained strength, leading to new highs in index points [5][15]. - The annualized return of the China Securities Banking Index from July 15, 2013, to June 25, 2025, is 6.7%, which increases to 11.31% when considering dividends [15]. Group 2: Banking Industry Characteristics - The banking industry is characterized by strong cyclicality, with performance heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions. During economic downturns, banks face increased risk provisions and reduced interest income, while the opposite occurs during economic upturns [7][11][12]. - The banking business model can be simplified to "two incomes and two expenses," which includes interest income, non-interest income, interest expenses, and risk provisions [8][10]. Group 3: Sources of Returns for Banking Index Funds - The three main sources of returns for banking index funds are: 1. **Valuation Improvement**: The price-to-book ratio (P/B) of the China Securities Banking Index increased from 0.87 on May 6, 2019, to 1.14 on June 26, 2025, contributing to returns [23][24]. 2. **Net Asset Growth**: The net assets of banks have been increasing annually since 2014, which is a key driver of the long-term rise in the banking index [27][28]. 3. **Increased Dividends**: The dividend yield for banking stocks has improved significantly due to policies encouraging higher dividend payouts, with total cash dividends reaching approximately 2.4 trillion in 2024 [30][32][35]. Group 4: Profit-Taking Strategies - Two common profit-taking strategies for banking index funds include: 1. **Profit-Taking Based on Yield**: Consider taking profits when the yield reaches 30% [37]. 2. **Profit-Taking Based on Overvaluation**: Monitor valuations and consider selling when the index is deemed overvalued [40][51]. - The article emphasizes the effectiveness of a strategy involving buying undervalued assets, holding during normal valuations, and selling when overvalued, which has been validated through past market cycles [47][51].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 一、【第392期直播回放】 有朋 友问，银行指数的长期表现如何？ 过去几年银行指数上涨了不少，是什么推动的呢？ 当前银行指数估值如何，该止盈了么？ 在今晚的直播课里，螺丝钉详细介绍了这些问题。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 0627 」即可观看直播回放。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） 二、【部分直播课内容如下】 1. 2018年熊市以来中证银行指数走势 银行业的代表指数是中证银行指数。 如下，是 沪深300、 中证银行、 300成长这三个指数的历史走势。 它们可以分别代表大盘股、大盘价值股、大盘成长股的表现。 可以看到，这三个品种，涨跌分化是比较明显的，呈现出A股不同风格轮动的特点。 2019-2021年上一轮牛市的盈利品种，主要是成长风格。 300成长的上涨幅度，远远超过沪深300和中证银行。 到了2022-2024年，价值风格逐渐强势。 这几年，银行、红利等品种也整体上涨，创下指数点数的新高。 2. 银行业的特点：周期性比较强 银行具备不错的商业模式， 可以 简单的看作是「 两个收入，两个费 用 」：利息收入、非利息收入、利息费用、风 ...