文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 在今晚的直播课里，螺丝钉详细介绍了这些问题。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 0826 」即可观看直播回放。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） 二、【部分直播课内容如下】 1. 单个指数基金，止盈的三种方式 一、【第402期直播回放】 最近上涨了，问止盈的朋友多了起来。 常见的止盈方式有哪些，各自有啥优缺点？ 上一轮5星级到3星级，有哪些「低估买入-高估止盈」的案例？ 投资了投顾组合，该如何止盈？ 如果投资单个指数基金，通常有三种止盈方式： 2. 方式1：按照收益率止盈 按照这种方式止盈，关键是看收益率是否达到自己设想的水平。 通常来说，收益率达到30%后，可以考虑止盈。 止盈后，对低估品种开启下一轮定投。 重复操作。 一般平均每3-5年，会遇到一次按照收益率止盈的机会。 比如， 最近10年，中证全指的历次反弹幅度，如下图所示： · 按照收益率止盈； · 按照高估止盈； · 长期持有不卖出，依靠分红作为盈利方式。 这种止盈方式的优点是，执行起来比较简单。 缺点是， 可能会错过牛市收益。 例如2007、2015年这种罕见的大牛市，会提前下车。 不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various methods for profit-taking in single index funds, highlighting their advantages and disadvantages, and introduces a cash flow investment strategy through a managed portfolio called "Monthly Salary Treasure" [1][40]. Group 1: Profit-Taking Methods for Single Index Funds - Method 1: Profit-taking based on return rate, typically considering a 30% return as a threshold for selling [4][7]. - Method 2: Profit-taking based on valuation, where low valuation is suitable for investment, normal valuation for holding, and high valuation for selling [10][11]. - Method 3: Long-term holding without selling, relying on dividends as a profit source, which is a strategy endorsed by investment experts [27][30]. Group 2: Details on Profit-Taking Methods - For Method 1, the simplicity of execution is a key advantage, but it risks missing out on significant bull market gains [9][24]. - Method 2 allows for a structured approach to selling based on market conditions, with a historical success rate demonstrated through various market cycles [17][19]. - Method 3 is less stressful as it does not require constant market monitoring, but it demands high-quality dividend-paying investments [30][31]. Group 3: Monthly Salary Treasure Managed Portfolio - The "Monthly Salary Treasure" portfolio allows for flexible cash flow options, with the ability to choose between weekly or monthly distributions [41][42]. - The cash flow distribution is stable regardless of short-term market fluctuations, with an estimated annual payout of about 6% of total assets [46][45]. - The portfolio employs an automatic rebalancing strategy to maintain a balanced stock-bond ratio, optimizing returns during different market conditions [60][62].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the long-term performance of the banking index, the factors driving its growth, and the current valuation, suggesting potential strategies for profit-taking. Group 1: Banking Index Performance - The representative index for the banking industry is the China Securities Banking Index, which has shown significant growth in recent years, particularly from 2019 to 2021, driven by a strong growth style. In contrast, from 2022 to 2024, value styles, including banking and dividend stocks, have gained strength, leading to new highs in index points [5][15]. - The annualized return of the China Securities Banking Index from July 15, 2013, to June 25, 2025, is 6.7%, which increases to 11.31% when considering dividends [15]. Group 2: Banking Industry Characteristics - The banking industry is characterized by strong cyclicality, with performance heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions. During economic downturns, banks face increased risk provisions and reduced interest income, while the opposite occurs during economic upturns [7][11][12]. - The banking business model can be simplified to "two incomes and two expenses," which includes interest income, non-interest income, interest expenses, and risk provisions [8][10]. Group 3: Sources of Returns for Banking Index Funds - The three main sources of returns for banking index funds are: 1. **Valuation Improvement**: The price-to-book ratio (P/B) of the China Securities Banking Index increased from 0.87 on May 6, 2019, to 1.14 on June 26, 2025, contributing to returns [23][24]. 2. **Net Asset Growth**: The net assets of banks have been increasing annually since 2014, which is a key driver of the long-term rise in the banking index [27][28]. 3. **Increased Dividends**: The dividend yield for banking stocks has improved significantly due to policies encouraging higher dividend payouts, with total cash dividends reaching approximately 2.4 trillion in 2024 [30][32][35]. Group 4: Profit-Taking Strategies - Two common profit-taking strategies for banking index funds include: 1. **Profit-Taking Based on Yield**: Consider taking profits when the yield reaches 30% [37]. 2. **Profit-Taking Based on Overvaluation**: Monitor valuations and consider selling when the index is deemed overvalued [40][51]. - The article emphasizes the effectiveness of a strategy involving buying undervalued assets, holding during normal valuations, and selling when overvalued, which has been validated through past market cycles [47][51].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and valuation of the banking index, highlighting the cyclical nature of the banking industry and the factors driving its recent growth, including interest income, non-interest income, and risk provisions [1][5][10]. Group 1: Banking Index Performance - The banking index, represented by the China Securities Banking Index, has shown significant growth since the bear market of 2018, with a notable increase in value from 2019 to 2021, primarily driven by growth stocks [1][3]. - From 2013 to 2025, the annualized return of the China Securities Banking Index is projected to be 6.7%, increasing to 11.31% when considering dividends [14]. - The maximum drawdown of the index was 37.08%, occurring between June 8, 2015, and August 25, 2015 [15]. Group 2: Characteristics of the Banking Industry - The banking sector is characterized by strong cyclicality, with revenue derived from interest income, non-interest income, interest expenses, and risk provisions [5][10]. - Banks typically earn interest income by borrowing at a lower rate and lending at a higher rate, with the difference known as the interest margin [6][9]. - The overall profitability of banks is significantly influenced by macroeconomic conditions, with performance improving during economic upturns and declining during downturns [11][12]. Group 3: Sources of Returns for Banking Index Funds - The three main sources of returns for banking index funds are: 1. Buying undervalued assets and benefiting from valuation (price-to-book ratio) increases [19][21]. 2. Growth in net assets, which has been a major driver of the banking index's long-term rise [25][26]. 3. Increased dividends and higher dividend yields, with recent policies encouraging higher dividend payouts from listed companies [28][31]. Group 4: Valuation and Investment Strategies - The valuation of the banking index is best assessed using the price-to-book ratio, which has increased from 0.87 in May 2019 to 1.14 by June 2025 [22][44]. - Investment strategies for banking index funds include profit-taking based on yield or valuation, with a recommendation to consider selling when the yield reaches 30% or when the index is deemed overvalued [36][40]. - The current valuation of the China Securities Banking Index is considered normal to slightly high, suggesting caution in new investments [44].