证券研究报告 西部证券研发中心 2026年01月30日 分析师 | 周安桐 S0800524120005 zhouantong@research.xbmail.com.cn 联系人 | 程宵凯 chengxiaokai@xbmail.com.cn 联系人 | 喻麟靖 yulinjing@xbmail.com.cn 静水潜流，价值当归 银行板块2026开年策略 • 板块现状：25年10月以来资金对银行板块策略偏审慎，板块整体呈行情趋势缺失、估值中枢向中值收敛，以及资金交易向绩优股集中、 估值分布不均两大特征。 • 资金面趋势：我们认为国资法人是银行板块中长期定价的主导资金，一方面国资稳定控股银行股（25Q2末持股数量、市值占比均在 60%以上）、且交易频次较低，另一方面央企、地方国资系统是上市银行长期经营策略制定与实施的主导方。而银行板块的短中期行 情或更多受险资、公募、宽基ETF等资金流动影响。 ➢ 息差有望趋势企稳：1）贷款端：新发放贷款利率已行至低位，叠加自律机制调节、监管引导行业"反内卷"等因素，预计今年贷款端 收益下行压力或边际缓减；2）存款端：预计今年银行存款重定价效应仍较强，利于银行持续改善负债端 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy for the banking sector by Zhongtai Securities is optimistic, focusing on high-quality regional city commercial banks and high-dividend varieties as dual main lines through 2026 [1] Group 1: Banking Sector Outlook - The banking sector shows strong certainty, with expectations of stable revenue driven by excess provisioning, maintaining a provision coverage ratio above 150% by 2028, and a stable dividend payout ratio of 30%, resulting in a stable ROE of 8% [1] - The focus is on high-quality regional city commercial banks and high-dividend stocks, with infrastructure and industrial growth driving high ROE in developed provinces [1] Group 2: Credit Dynamics - Credit growth is expected to slightly decline, with new infrastructure, new industrialization, and technology finance supporting credit momentum [2] - New infrastructure loans are anticipated to rebound, while manufacturing loans will maintain resilience, and technology finance loans are expected to sustain high growth [2] - Real estate credit demand remains weak, requiring unexpected policy support for stabilization, while consumer credit is unlikely to see a significant turning point by 2026 [2] Group 3: Revenue Breakdown - Interest income is projected to recover, leading to a 2.5% year-on-year increase in revenue for listed banks in 2026, with net profit expected to rise by 2.3% [3] - The net interest margin is forecasted to decline by 2.5 basis points, with potential recovery if monetary policies are favorable [3] - Non-interest income is expected to remain stable, with wealth management supporting fee income growth [3] Group 4: Funding Analysis - The total investment in the banking sector from insurance funds, mutual funds, and wealth management is estimated at 224.4 billion yuan, potentially driving a 7.3% increase in the sector [4] - Insurance funds are projected to contribute 125 billion yuan to the banking sector, while mutual funds are expected to add 993 billion yuan [4] - Asset quality remains stable, with retail risks gradually revealing but expected to narrow in exposure [4]