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机构行为精讲系列之二:理财稳净值下的配债逻辑及行为变化
Huachuang Securities· 2025-06-26 23:45
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report The research on the regulatory framework, fund operation, bond - allocation behavior, and the latest characteristics of the bank wealth - management industry's development is of great reference value for bond - market trend analysis. The bank wealth - management sector currently faces challenges such as the rectification of net - value smoothing methods, difficulty in achieving performance benchmarks in a low - interest - rate environment, and potential shrinkage of small and medium - sized banks' wealth - management scale, which may affect bond - allocation preferences. The report also provides strategies for bond investment to respond to the institutional behavior changes of bank wealth - management [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overview of Bank Wealth - Management Bond Allocation - As of the end of 2024, the bank wealth - management bond - allocation scale reached 18.6 trillion yuan, ranking third in the market and accounting for 10.5% of the 177 - trillion - yuan balance of China's bond - market custody. In recent years, affected by the redemption wave, the growth rate of bank wealth - management bond allocation first declined and then rebounded. Bank wealth - management prefers credit bonds and certificates of deposit in bond - allocation [1][13]. 2. Wealth - Management Regulatory Rules: A Multi - layer Regulatory Framework Led by the New Asset Management Regulations (1) Evolution of Wealth - Management Supervision - Since the introduction of the New Asset Management Regulations in 2018, a multi - layer regulatory framework of "New Asset Management Regulations - Wealth - Management Regulations and Wealth - Management Company Regulations + Supporting Rules for Wealth - Management Business Supervision + Valuation Methods + Window Guidance" has been formed. The New Asset Management Regulations initiated the era of net - value transformation, while the Wealth - Management Regulations and Wealth - Management Company Regulations carried out wealth - management business in a dual - track system [19]. (2) Regulatory Details of Bank Wealth - Management Product Investment and Operation - **Investment Scope**: Private - placement wealth management has a wider investment scope than public - placement wealth management, and public - placement wealth management can invest in non - standard assets and large - denomination certificates of deposit to increase returns compared with public - offering funds. There are also slight differences in supervision between commercial banks and wealth - management subsidiaries [25]. - **Investment Ratio**: The 80% investment ratio of major asset classes is the basis for product - type classification. The upper limit of non - standard asset investment is 35%. The liquidity - asset ratio requirement is similar to that of funds, and the credit - rating limit for cash - management products is in line with that of money - market funds. The concentration limit basically follows the requirements of the New Asset Management Regulations, with an exception clause for investment in index bond funds [2][30]. - **Leverage and Maturity Requirements**: The leverage requirements are the same as those of funds, with upper limits of 120%, 140%, and 200%. The maturity requirements aim to reduce the risk of maturity mismatch [2]. - **Valuation Method Requirements**: Specific products can use the amortized cost method, including cash - management wealth management and closed - end wealth management with the mixed - valuation method. The amortized cost method also needs to meet the requirements of the "Accounting Treatment Provisions for Asset Management Products". Market - value method requires the use of third - party valuation, and the means of smoothing net value have been gradually rectified [2]. 3. Bank Wealth - Management Operation: How to Respond to Net - Value Transformation? (1) Source of Funds - Since 2022, the wealth - management scale has gone through three stages: "fluctuating growth - redemption shrinkage - recovery growth". Individual investors are the main participants, preferring low - volatility and stable products. The proportion of parent - bank sales has been continuously declining [3][51]. (2) Asset Allocation - **Major Asset Allocation**: After the redemption wave in 2022, bank wealth - management increased the allocation of monetary assets and managed liquidity more through outsourced funds. The proportion of trust companies as the main outsourced channel increased due to their valuation advantages [3]. - **Bond - Asset Investment**: After the redemption wave, the bond - allocation scale of wealth management first shrank and then recovered. Currently, it is still mainly credit bonds, but the proportion of low - volatility inter - bank certificates of deposit is increasing. The proportion of outsourced investment has exceeded that of direct investment, showing the characteristics of "direct investment for stable net value and outsourced investment for higher returns" [3]. 4. New Developments: Challenges and Countermeasures for Bank Wealth - Management to Stabilize Net Value - **Challenge 1: Rectification of Wealth - Management Net - Value Smoothing Methods**: Since 2023, the proportion of wealth - management products with a net value below par has been generally controllable thanks to various net - value smoothing methods. However, since 2024, many smoothing methods have been rectified. In 2025, direct investment in bank wealth management increased capital lending and still controlled relatively short durations, while outsourced investment became more conservative [4][8]. - **Challenge 2: Difficulty in Achieving Wealth - Management Performance Benchmarks in a Low - Interest - Rate Bond Market**: In a tight - money environment, wealth management may increase lending and allocate more short - term bonds. In a low - interest - rate environment, it may increase the allocation of equity assets [4][8]. - **Challenge 3: Potential Shrinkage of Small and Medium - Sized Banks' Wealth - Management Scale**: According to news reports, the wealth - management scale of small and medium - sized banks may shrink, with the proposed rectification volume around 3.5 trillion yuan, accounting for about 12%. Wealth - management subsidiaries of large - state - owned banks may undertake the capital gap of small and medium - sized banks' wealth management, and the allocation demand for some inter - bank certificates of deposit and corporate bonds may shift to cash, bank deposits, and financial bonds [4][8]. 5. How Should Bond Investment Respond to the Institutional Behavior Changes of Wealth Management? - **Grasp the Seasonal Bond - Allocation Rules**: In April, July, and from October to November, there are usually opportunities for the credit spreads of 1 - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit and AAA short - and medium - term notes within 1 year to compress [5][8]. - **Track Redemption Waves**: Divide redemption waves into small - scale and large - scale ones according to the degree of negative feedback in the bond market. Use product net value, product scale, and spot - bond trading as the key indicators to track the redemption pressure of various products, and grasp the investment opportunities in redemption waves in different stages [5][9]. - **Pay Attention to Leading Indicators and Be Alert to the Risk of Wealth - Management Net - Value Fluctuation**: Observe whether the wealth - management safety cushion turns negative and whether the seasonal decline in wealth - management scale exceeds the fund - holding position. Before these situations occur, the risk of wealth - management net - value retracement is controllable [5][9].