1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the self - investment performance of banks in 2025 based on the semi - annual report and forecasts their behavior in the fourth quarter. It concludes that bond allocation is expected to support bank expansion, and although there is still room for banks to realize floating profits, the impact on the bond market is expected to be relatively mild [4][11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 From the 2025 Semi - annual Report: Bank Self - investment Performance 3.1.1 Financial Market Returns: Increased Contribution of Realized Floating Profits - The revenue contribution of banks' self - investment business fluctuates upward. Since 2023, the proportion of investment income and fair - value changes in revenue has increased. In the first half of 2025, banks sold old bonds to realize floating profits to cope with the rising bond - market yields [20][23][26]. 3.1.2 Asset Allocation: Financial Investment Drives Balance - sheet Expansion - Since 2024, the year - on - year growth rate of bank financial investment has been rising, and its proportion in total assets has also increased. By the end of June 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of listed banks' financial investment was 14.9%. The OCI account's proportion has been increasing, and large state - owned banks have continuously increased their allocation of government bonds [31]. - In terms of duration, the overall duration of bank financial investment has been extended, but the space for continuous extension may be limited. Structurally, state - owned banks' AC accounts maintain a high duration, and joint - stock banks' OCI accounts have a more obvious duration - extension action [57][59][74]. 3.1.3 Liability Side: Decreased Liability Cost Rate and Declined Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit Balance in Q3 - In the first half of 2025, the weighted average interest - bearing liability cost rate of banks decreased by about 29BP compared with 2024, mainly due to the concentrated maturity and repricing of deposits. The deposit cost rate decreased by 25BP [86]. - Since the second quarter, the central bank's liquidity injection has been abundant, and the balance of inter - bank certificates of deposit has declined. Large state - owned banks have reduced their reliance on inter - bank certificates of deposit, while small and medium - sized banks have shortened the issuance term of inter - bank certificates of deposit to control costs [101][103][115]. 3.2 Outlook for Banks' Behavior in Q4 2025 3.2.1 Asset Side: Bond Allocation Expected to Continue Supporting Balance - sheet Expansion - In the fourth quarter, credit growth is expected to remain weak, and financial investment will still be the main driving force for bank balance - sheet expansion. The decline in liability cost rate has opened up space for bank bond allocation, and the current high spread between 10 - year treasury bonds and 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit has increased banks' willingness to allocate bonds [118][121][122]. - Large state - owned banks' pressure to undertake government bond issuance is expected to weaken, and small and medium - sized banks will continue to tilt available funds towards bond investment [128][131]. 3.2.2 Liability Side: Focus on the Issuance Scale of Banks' Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - Banks may face "deposit migration" pressure in the fourth quarter, and some deposits will mature. Banks may issue inter - bank certificates of deposit preventively when liquidity is relatively loose. The issuance term of large state - owned banks is expected to be longer, while that of small and medium - sized banks is expected to be medium - short [136][138]. 3.2.3 Realizing Floating Profits: Still Some Space, but Limited Impact on the Bond Market - Banks need to smooth their performance in the fourth quarter, and there is still pressure to sell old bonds, but the impact on the bond market is expected to be relatively mild. There are limitations in selling old bonds, including accounting classification rationality, reinvestment pressure, and performance base pressure for 2026 [142][143]. - There is still some demand for banks to realize floating profits in Q4 2025, but the amount of floating profits that can be realized is limited. AC accounts have some selling constraints, and excessive realization of floating profits in OCI accounts may increase the performance base pressure for 2026 [144][151].