填补科技债指空白，首批科创债ETF一日吸金300亿。 作者 | 市值风云基金研究部 编辑 | 小白 2025年6月18日，10家公募基金集中申报首批科创债ETF，10只科创债ETF于7月2日获批，7月7日正 式发售。 7月7日当日，首批10只科创债ETF集体发售，全部"一日售罄"。若按照30亿元的募集上限计算，此类 ETF将给市场带来300亿元的增量资金。 首批申报的公募基金中，有8家具有债券ETF管理经验。 截至2025年6月末，富国基金管理的政金债ETF规模超过500亿元，南方基金、华夏基金和易方达基金 管理的信用债ETF均超过200亿元，博时基金涵盖可转债ETF、信用债ETF、国债ETF和政金债ETF多 元化产品。 而首批10只科创债ETF中，有6只跟踪中证AAA科技创新公司债指数，3只跟踪上证AAA科技创新公 司债指数，1只跟踪深证AAA科技创新公司债指数。 | 基金管理人 | 基金名称 | 跟踪指数 | | --- | --- | --- | | 易方达基金 | 易方达中证AAA科技创新公司债ETF | 中证AAA科技创新公司债指数 | | 富国基金 | 富国中证AAA科技创新公司债ETF | | ...

专题研究 2025 年 半 年 报 （2025 年 7 月） 买断式逆回购首次月初预告，流动性改 善关注短端利率机会 中美关税博弈阶段性缓和，短期内收益率 或阶段性上行，2025 年 5 月 新一轮增量金融政策的四大关注——5 月7 号国新办发布会点评，2025 年 5 月 利率债研究 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 王 晨 chwang01@ccxi.com.cn 汪苑晖 yhwang@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 研究院院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 全面降准或率先落地，关税博弈下收益率 高波动或延续，2025 年 4 月 三问 2025 年特别国债——全国两会精神 学习系列之三，2025 年 3 月 如需订阅研究报告，敬请联系 中诚信国际品牌与投资人服务部 赵 耿 010-66428731； gzhao@ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 大而美法案通过外部环境仍复杂 降准降息可期利率难改下行趋势 ——2025 年上半年货币政策与利率债回顾与下半年展望 本期要点 收益率或小幅上行,2022 年 11 月 【货币政策及利率债 2022 年前三季度回顾与下阶段 展望 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the current issuance progress of interest - rate bonds in 2025, predicts the issuance rhythm in the second half of the year, and evaluates its impact. It is expected that the central bank will use various tools to maintain the stability of the capital market, and the overall impact of the issuance of special refinancing bonds on the capital market is controllable [2][3][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Current Issuance Progress - **Treasury Bonds**: As of July 7, 2025, the cumulative net issuance of treasury bonds was 32955 billion yuan, with a progress of 53.5%, the fastest in the same period in the past five years. The issuance scale of major - term coupon - bearing treasury bonds increased year - on - year. The issuance progress of special treasury bonds exceeded half, with the first issuance peak in May [10][16]. - **Local Bonds**: The issuance rhythm of local bonds in the first half of the year was faster than that in 2024 but slower than that in 2022 - 2023. General bonds showed the characteristics of "accelerating from January to March, slow issuance from April to May, and accelerating again in the last week of June". The issuance of special bonds was relatively even, and the progress slightly exceeded that of the same period in 2024. The issuance of special refinancing bonds was concentrated in the first quarter and gradually ended in the second quarter. The issuance of special new special bonds exceeded half, with a large volume in the second quarter [23][32]. - **Policy - Financial Bonds**: Since 2020, the issuance scale of policy - financial bonds has basically remained in the range of 5 - 6 trillion yuan. As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative issuance of policy - financial bonds was 34968 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance progress of 58%, generally higher than the same - period level in the past five years [36]. 3.2 Issuance Rhythm in the Second Half of the Year - **Treasury Bonds**: The net issuance scale in the second half of the year remains relatively high. The issuance of ordinary treasury bonds may be more evenly distributed monthly, with a slower rhythm but a high net issuance scale. For special treasury bonds, as of July 7, 2025, there were still 10 bonds to be issued, with a remaining quota of 6220 billion yuan, and the average issuance scale per bond was about 622 billion yuan. August - September may be the peak issuance months [40][44]. - **Local Bonds**: In the case of new local bonds, two scenarios are considered. In both scenarios, the third quarter may see a supply peak. If 2 trillion yuan of debt - resolution quota for next year is advanced to this year's fourth quarter, the supply pressure in October may increase significantly, and the pressure in November - December will decrease. The issuance of policy - financial bonds is expected to maintain a balanced rhythm, with the total issuance amount remaining in the range of 5 - 6 trillion yuan, and the rhythm tends to be front - loaded [3][4][48]. - **Policy - Financial Bonds**: The total issuance amount is expected to remain in the range of 5 - 6 trillion yuan since 2020. The rhythm tends to be front - loaded, estimated by referring to the average issuance in the same period from 2020 - 2024 [72]. 3.3 Impact Assessment It is expected that the central bank will use various tools to maintain the stability of the capital market. If there is a reserve requirement ratio cut, the third quarter may be a good observation period. If not, the central bank may increase the investment of outright reverse repurchases and MLF or restart treasury bond trading operations. Referring to the situation in the fourth quarter of 2024, if special refinancing bonds are issued in advance in the fourth quarter of this year, the overall impact is expected to be controllable [5][77].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by traditional investment strategies in a low-interest-rate environment and suggests various tools for investors to build their own income-generating portfolios amidst market volatility [1]. Group 1: Investment Tools - Cash management products offer high liquidity and can be accessed anytime, providing better returns than traditional savings accounts [2]. - Bond ETFs track bond indices, such as the Fortune Government Bond ETF, which invests in policy financial bonds with low default risk and stable returns, suitable for long-term holding [3]. - Brokerage repurchase agreements allow investors to earn predetermined returns with flexibility in fund usage, combining investment and liquidity [4]. Group 2: "Fixed Income +" Strategy - The "Fixed Income +" strategy seeks to enhance returns while maintaining a stable base through the allocation of fixed-income assets and additional investments in stocks or convertible bonds [5][7]. - The strategy's risk and return profile is primarily influenced by the equity portion, despite the fixed-income base providing stability [7]. Group 3: Dividend Index Funds - Dividend strategies have gained attention due to their characteristics of high dividends and low valuations, providing strong downside protection and stable cash flow from leading companies [8][10]. - Reinvesting dividend income can leverage the power of compounding, significantly enhancing total returns over time, even with initially low dividend yields [11]. Group 4: Performance of Dividend Indices - Various dividend indices have shown attractive yields and volatility metrics, with the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index yielding 7.47% and the CSI Dividend Index yielding 6.12% [12][15].

Market Overview - The bond market experienced a warm oscillation last week, with a slight decline in long-term bond yields. The 10-year government bond futures main contract rose by 0.03%, while the 10-year bond yield fell by 0.29 basis points compared to the previous week [2][3] - The yield curve has steepened further, driven by a combination of factors including a loosening of the funding environment and a reduction in government bond issuance [1][3] Secondary Market - On July 1, the bond market was supported by a loosening funding environment and a reduction in government bond issuance, leading to a general decline in yields. The 10-year bond yield decreased by 0.36 basis points [4] - On July 2, the market continued to strengthen due to the increasingly loose funding environment, with the 10-year bond yield falling by 0.37 basis points [4] - On July 3, the bond market remained warm, with most yields declining, although the 10-year bond yield increased slightly by 0.11 basis points [4] - On July 4, short-term bonds continued to perform well due to the ongoing loose funding environment, while long-term bonds weakened slightly due to the stock-bond effect, with the 10-year bond yield rising by 0.26 basis points [4] Primary Market - A total of 47 bonds were issued last week, a decrease of 130 bonds from the previous week, with an issuance volume of 513.2 billion, down by 354.4 billion. The net financing amount was 376.6 billion, a significant decrease of 404.1 billion [11][12] - Government bonds, policy bank bonds, and local government bonds saw varying issuance trends, with government bonds and policy bank bonds increasing while local government bonds saw a significant decrease [11][12] Economic Indicators - The macroeconomic sentiment continued to improve in June, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from May. The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.5%, also up by 0.2 percentage points [13] - The service sector PMI decreased slightly to 50.1%, reflecting seasonal trends, while the composite PMI output index rose to 50.7%, indicating ongoing expansion [13] Liquidity Observation - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 1375.3 billion in the open market last week, indicating a tightening of liquidity despite the overall loose funding environment [24]

近期获杠杆资金连续融资净买入的ETF基金有70只，居前的为券商ETF（7天）、科创板人工智能ETF（6天）、旅游ETF（5天）、消费电子ETF富国（5 天）、科创板50ETF（4天）等，分别净买入8597.21万元、995.75万元、969.53万元、148.68万元、5898.58万元。其中，科创板50ETF近4天获杠杆资金加速 买入，近4天杠杆资金累计流入5898.58万元。 近期获杠杆资金连续融券净卖出的ETF基金有11只，居前的为沪深300ETF（7天）、上证50ETF（5天）、沪深300ETF（4天）、证券ETF（3天）、中证 1000ETF（2天）等，分别净卖出554.45万元、2508.39万元、4039.92万元、583.29万元、9312.01万元。其中，中证1000ETF近2天获杠杆资金加速流出，近2 天杠杆资金累计流出9312.01万元。 2025年7月4日，共204只ETF基金获融资净买入，27只ETF基金融券净卖出。融资净买入金额超500万元的有36只，黄金ETF(518880.SH)、可转债 ETF(511380.SH)、恒生科技指数ETF(513180.SH)、政金债券ETF(5 ...

上周，首批10只科创债ETF集中获批，填补了"科技金融"主题债券ETF的空白。科创债即由科技创新企 业发行，或募集资金主要用于支持科技创新领域的债券。作为创新工具，科创债承担着将资金活水精准 引流至科技创新领域的职责，是债券市场服务科技创新企业融资、培育新质生产力的重要工具。 近年来，我国科创债市场持续扩容，规模已突破2.2万亿元。在此背景下，科创债ETF富国（159200） 于今日正式发行，为个人投资者提供参与债市"科创板"投资的一大利器。 政策红利爆发 掘金万亿蓝海 自2021年试点以来，科创债就是国家政策高度倾斜的领域，也是当前债券市场的重点发展方向。近年 来，我国多部门协同推进科创债市场制度优化，尤其是今年以来，利好政策密集推出，为构建债市"科 创板"注入了强大动力。 规模中，占比超过10%，是唯一规模突破500亿元的产品。通过为政金债券ETF设立T+0的便捷交易机 制、协同做市商提供流动性支持，以及质押式回购功能，富国基金为政金债券ETF提供了良好的运作环 境。过去一年，政金债券ETF日均成交额超70亿元，2024年全年净值增长率为9.79%，成交活跃度与业 绩表现均位于市场同类前列，展现出了富国基 ...

7 月债市从量变到质变 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 7 月 6 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 证券研究报告 债券研究 [T专题able_ReportType] 报告 [Table_A 李一爽 uthor 固定收益 ] 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+8618817583889 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com 37 月债市从量变到质变 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 6 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com2 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 [➢Table_Summary] 6 月债券市场超长非活跃券与信用债出现结构性行情，历史上看活跃券下行 受限、投资者通过交易部分流动性偏弱品种获取超额收益，可能反映了利 好因素已被活跃券充分定价，这可能是行情进入尾声的信号。但当前市场 行情与过去的差异之处在 ...

银行板块已经涨到被股民称为银伟达、银斯达克了！ 银行股太强了，工商银行、浦发银行、中信银行、兴业银行等9股本周五同日创出历史新高。 42只银行股的涨跌幅中位数为18.7%，同期沪深300指数涨1.2%。 银行板块最新市值达15.96万亿元，较2024年末的13.58万亿元增加2.38万亿元。 今年以来，银行AH优选ETF涨超25%，银行ETF易方达、银行ETF天弘、银行ETF基金涨超20%，大幅跑赢沪深300指数。 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 年内涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | | 517900.OF | 银行AH优选ETF | 25.84 | | 516310.OF | 银行ETF易方达 | 20.77 | | 512700.OF | 银行ETF南方 | 20.28 | | 515290.OF | 银行ETF天弘 | 20.23 | | 516210.OF | 银行ETF指数基金 | 20.03 | | 515020.OF | 银行ETF基金 | 20.03 | | 159887.OF | 银行ETF | 19.78 | | 512820.OF | 银行ETF龙头 | 19.72 ...

今年上半年，ETF总规模突破4万亿大关，达到4.31万亿元，与去年年底相比增长了15.57%。 上半年，增长幅度最大的是债券型ETF，年内规模增长了120.71%，达到3839.76亿元。 今年上半年29只债券ETF合计规模达到3839.76亿元，再次突破历史纪录。 债券ETF成为上半年净流入最多的ETF品种，合计净流入1757.84亿元。 其中，海富通短融ETF、南方上证公司债ETF、华夏信用债ETF基金、公司债ETF易方达、富国政金债券ETF、信用债ETF广 发、国泰十年国债ETF、平安公司债ETF、海富通信用债ETF、大成信用债ETF大成上半年资金净流入额均超百亿。 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 上半年净流入额(亿元) | 基金管理人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 511360.OF | 短融ETF | 194.03 | 海富通县金 | | 511070.OF | 上证公司债ETF | 185.43 | 南方基金 | | 511200.OF | 信用债ETF基金 | 185.43 | 花直喜等 | | 511110.OF | 公司债ETF易方达 | 182.29 | 易方 ...