本周，资金面超预期收敛后边际缓和，资金利率"先上后下"，呈现两点特 征：（1）预期与现实的背离，原因在于传统的税期和非传统的股债市场联 动改变资金流向两点因素形成的共振冲击。8 月并非传统缴税大月，买断 式逆回购已于月初、月中节点投放，通常被视为更为精准呵护的信号，但 资金面却出现超预期收敛，主因股市走强对债市资金形成一定占用，市场 情绪较为敏感，机构集中赎回债基的行为或放大流动性的紧张程度，使得 资金运行打破"低位低波"的格局；（2）流动性投放力度大、节奏前置以 稳定预期，阻断赎回压力的蔓延。央行投放加码且节奏前置，逆回购累计 投放超 2 万亿元，对冲到期压力及政府债发行扰动，MLF 投放操作将前置 于回笼，为市场注入"强心剂"，后半周资金利率温和下行。 未来一周，月末资金面将再迎"考验"，大幅上行、持续收敛的概率偏低， 但波动较往年同期或更为明显，除了月末或出现季节性趋紧之外，非季节 性因素的影响也是关键。资金面的平稳"闯关"，需关注央行的精准对冲与 大行融出意愿的有效修复，具体而言：一是股债联动效应对资金的分流和 情绪的压制，潜在的赎回压力将对资金面形成扰动，但过去一周央行的加 码投放，释放维稳信号，资 ...

政府债周报 广义赤字边际提速 政府债净融资第 33 周（8/11-8/17）2009 亿，第 34 周（8/18-8/24）5607 亿。截至第 33 周（8/11-8/17）累计 9.8 万亿，超出去年同期 4.6 万亿。 国债净融资+新增地方债发行第 33 周（8/11-8/17）2640 亿，第 34 周 （8/18-8/24）6007 亿。截至第 33 周（8/11-8/17）广义赤字累计 8.0 万亿，进度 67.2%。 国债第 33 周（8/11-8/17）净融资 2146 亿，第 34 周（8/18-8/24）3519 亿。截至第 33 周（8/11-8/17）累计 4.6 万亿，进度 68.4%。 地方债净融资第 33 周（8/11-8/17）-137 亿，第 34 周（8/18-8/24）2088 亿。截至第 33 周（8/11-8/17）累计 5.2 万亿，超出去年同期 2.8 万亿。 新增一般债第 33 周（8/11-8/17）303 亿，第 34 周（8/18-8/24）95 亿。 截至第 33 周（8/11-8/17）累计 5759 亿，进度 72.0%。 新增专项债第 33 周（8 ...

Financing Overview - Government debt net financing for week 33 (8/11-8/17) was 200.9 billion, and for week 34 (8/18-8/24) it was 560.7 billion, totaling 980 billion by week 33, exceeding last year's 460 billion[1] - The cumulative general deficit reached 8.0 trillion, with a progress rate of 67.2% as of week 33[5] - National debt net financing for week 33 was 214.6 billion, and for week 34 it was 351.9 billion, with a cumulative total of 4.6 trillion, achieving 68.4% of the annual target[6] Local Government Debt - Local government debt net financing for week 33 was -13.7 billion, while week 34 saw 208.8 billion, with a cumulative total of 5.2 trillion, surpassing last year's 2.8 trillion[8] - New general bonds issued amounted to 30.3 billion in week 33 and 9.5 billion in week 34, with a cumulative total of 575.9 billion, achieving 72.0% of the annual target[8] Special Bonds and Other Debt - New special bonds issued in week 33 were 19.0 billion, and in week 34, they surged to 239.3 billion, with a cumulative total of 2.8 trillion, reaching 64.5% of the annual target[12] - Special refinancing bonds issued in week 33 were 1.2 billion, and in week 34, they increased to 24.5 billion, with a cumulative total of 1.9 trillion, achieving 94% of the issuance target[24] - City investment bonds saw net financing of -6.2 billion in week 33 and an estimated -23.5 billion in week 34, with a total balance of 10.2 trillion[29]

Report Title - Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 33 of 2025 [2] Report Summary Government Bond Issuance Progress - As of August 17, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 64.5%, with 593 billion yuan issued in August [4][5] - As of August 17, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 72.0%, with 376 billion yuan issued in August [10][25] - As of August 17, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 65.6% [12] - As of August 17, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 68.0% [18] - As of August 17, the combined progress of treasury bond net financing and new local bond issuance was 66.9% [20] Weekly Bond Issuance and Financing Data - This week, 190 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, a decrease of 212 billion yuan from the previous week [4] - This week, 303 billion yuan of new general bonds were issued, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous week [8] - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was -137 billion yuan, a decrease of 966 billion yuan from the previous week [12] - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 2146 billion yuan, a decrease of 1239 billion yuan from the previous week [16] - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 2009 billion yuan, a decrease of 2205 billion yuan from the previous week [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 33rd week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress and net financing scale of various types of bonds as of August 17, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous week. 3. Summary by Related Content New Special Bond Issuance - As of August 17, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 64.5% [4]. - This week, new special bonds issued 1.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.12 billion yuan compared with the previous week [4]. - As of August 17, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in August was 5.93 billion yuan [5]. New General Bond Issuance - As of August 17, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 72.0% [10]. - This week, new general bonds issued 3.03 billion yuan, an increase of 2.3 billion yuan compared with the previous week [8]. - As of August 17, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in August was 3.76 billion yuan [25]. Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was -1.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.66 billion yuan compared with the previous week [12]. - As of August 17, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 65.6% [12]. Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 21.46 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.39 billion yuan compared with the previous week [16]. - As of August 17, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 68.0% [18]. Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 20.09 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.05 billion yuan compared with the previous week [20]. - As of August 17, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 66.9% [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the capital interest rates maintained a "low-level and low-volatility" state, with a slight increase during the tax period. The central bank's flexible injections and large banks' high net lending maintained a comfortable liquidity environment. The market's expectation of further monetary easing converged, but the capital market remained relatively stable, with fluctuations during the tax period. The central bank's open market operations were mainly net withdrawals, but turned to net injections during the tax period, and a 6M repurchase agreement was implemented on the tax day. The capital interest rates were close to the bottom, rising slightly on the first tax day. Large banks' net lending reached a new high, and the yield spread of certificates of deposit (CDs) in the primary and secondary markets fluctuated narrowly, indicating limited pressure on banks' liabilities [1]. - The Q2 2025 Monetary Policy Report confirmed sufficient liquidity, suggesting that interest rates may remain low and fluctuate within a narrow range, with limited room for further decline. The central bank may be cautious in using aggregate tools, focusing more on implementing existing policies and improving the transmission mechanism, and paying attention to non-interest financing costs. The fundamental purpose of the financial system to serve the real economy may be more prominent, and the market should not over - interpret short - term liquidity changes [1]. - Next week, the capital market is expected to remain stable, with limited upward pressure on interest rates and a need for more policy signals to break through the lower limit. The maturity scale of reverse repurchases and CDs will decrease, and the influencing factors will be staggered, making the market fluctuations controllable. The coordinated monetary and fiscal policies will ensure sufficient liquidity supply. Interest rates may continue to show "low - volatility and rigidity", and it is unlikely to break through the previous low in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Capital Market Steady State - This week, the capital market remained comfortable, with minor fluctuations during the tax period. The central bank's open - market operations were mainly net withdrawals from Monday to Thursday, but turned to net injections on August 15, the tax deadline, along with a 5000 - billion - yuan 6M repurchase agreement. Capital interest rates were "low - level and low - volatility", rising on the first tax day. Large banks' net lending remained high, and CD prices were stable, indicating limited pressure on banks' liabilities [11]. - The continuous loosening of capital in August was due to the phased injection of repurchase agreements and the fact that August is not a major tax - paying month, with lower tax revenues and reduced mid - month payment pressure [18][20]. - The Q2 2025 Monetary Policy Report was more positive about the domestic economy, emphasizing strategic stability. The central bank may continue to "targeted and precise" regulation, with short - term liquidity remaining stable. The central bank is concerned about financial risk prevention, may be cautious in using aggregate tools, and will focus on supporting the real economy through structural policies. The market should not over - interpret short - term liquidity changes [21][22]. - Next week, the capital market is expected to be stable. The pressure will ease as the maturity scale of reverse repurchases, government bonds, and CDs decreases. The influencing factors will be staggered, and with the coordinated policies, there is no need to worry about liquidity. Interest rates are likely to remain "low - level and low - volatility", and it is difficult to break through the previous low without additional liquidity or policy support [25]. 3.2. Open Market Operations - From August 11 - 15, the open - market net injection was 85.1 billion yuan, including 711.8 billion yuan in 7 - day reverse repurchases, 1126.7 billion yuan in maturities, and 500 billion yuan in 6M repurchase agreements. From August 18 - 22, the open - market maturity will be 931.8 billion yuan, including 711.8 billion yuan in 7 - day reverse repurchases and 220 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits [31]. - The reverse repurchase balance continued to decline. As of August 15, it was 711.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 414.9 billion yuan from August 8. In August, the Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) will mature for 300 billion yuan, and repurchase agreements will mature for 900 billion yuan (400 billion yuan for 3M and 500 billion yuan for 6M). The net injection of repurchase agreements was 300 billion yuan [33][35]. 3.3. Government Bonds - This week, the net payment of government bonds was 460.4 billion yuan, including 310.3 billion yuan in treasury bond issuance, 91.4 billion yuan in local bond issuance, 95.6 billion yuan in treasury bond maturities, and 73.2 billion yuan in local bond maturities. Next week, the planned issuance of government bonds is 731.2 billion yuan, including 362 billion yuan in treasury bonds and 369.2 billion yuan in local bonds, with 40.1 billion yuan in treasury bond maturities and 167.9 billion yuan in local bond maturities. The net payment of treasury bonds will be 84.9 billion yuan, and that of local bonds will be 179.2 billion yuan [38]. - This week, the net issuance of treasury bonds was 214.6 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 4555.5 billion yuan this year, reaching 74% of the annual plan. The issuance of new local bonds was 248.8 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 3454.4 billion yuan, reaching 66% of the annual plan [39]. 3.4. Excess Reserve Tracking and Prediction - It is predicted that the excess reserve ratio in August 2025 will be about 1.32%, a decrease of about 0.08 percentage points from July and 0.09 percentage points from the same period last year. The predicted excess reserve at the end of July was 4413.6 billion yuan. From August 11 - 15, the open - market net injection was 85.1 billion yuan, the net payment of government bonds was 460.4 billion yuan, the predicted fiscal revenue - expenditure difference was - 120 billion yuan, the reserve requirement was 2.62 billion yuan, and the tax payment was 998.5 billion yuan [44][45]. 3.5. Money Market - Interest rates increased. As of August 15, compared with August 8, DR001 increased by 9.03 basis points to 1.4%, DR007 increased by 5.47 basis points to 1.48%, R001 increased by 9.78 basis points to 1.44%, and R007 increased by 3.2 basis points to 1.49%. Overnight interest rates hovered around 1.4%. The spreads between various interest rates and the OMO rate also changed [47]. - The weekly average of SHIBOR overnight and 7 - day interest rates changed by 1.67 basis points and 0.21 basis points to 1.33% and 1.44% respectively. The weekly average of CNH HIBOR overnight and 7 - day interest rates changed by 27.57 basis points and 7.13 basis points to 1.49% and 1.53% respectively. The weekly average of FR007S1Y and FR007S5Y interest rates changed by - 0.58 basis points and 0.71 basis points to 1.52% and 1.57% respectively. The weekly average of six - month national and city commercial bill transfer rates changed by - 0.03 percentage points to 0.65% and 0.76% respectively [52][55]. - The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 8151.4 billion yuan, an increase of 42.3 billion yuan from August 4 - 8. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai Stock Exchange's new pledged treasury bond repurchase was 2084.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 101.8 billion yuan from August 4 - 8 [57]. - This week, the average net lending of the banking system was 3.78 trillion yuan, a decrease of 153.3 billion yuan from last week. Among them, the average net lending of large state - owned banks was 4.53 trillion yuan, an increase of 105 billion yuan from last week, with an overnight lending ratio of 97%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points from last week. The average net lending of other banks was - 0.75 trillion yuan, a decrease of 258.3 billion yuan from last week [60]. 3.6. Certificates of Deposit (CDs) - This week (August 11 - 15), the total issuance of CDs was 774.7 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 130.3 billion yuan, a decrease compared with last week. By issuer, state - owned banks had the highest issuance scale, and city commercial banks had the highest net financing. By maturity, 1 - year CDs had the highest issuance scale, and 9 - month CDs had the highest net financing [69]. - The weighted average issuance term of CDs this week was 8.09 months, longer than last week's 6.4 months. Among different types of banks, state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks had weighted average issuance terms of 9.8, 8.1, 6.7, and 7.4 months respectively, with corresponding changes of 3.31, 0.67, 0.52, and 0.91 months from last week [73]. - In terms of issuance success rates, joint - stock banks had the highest success rate. By maturity, 1 - month CDs had the highest success rate, and by credit rating, AA - rated CDs had the highest success rate [75]. - Next week (August 18 - 24), the maturity scale of CDs will be 797.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 107.7 billion yuan from this week. The maturity is mainly concentrated in state - owned banks and city commercial banks, and the terms are mainly 1 - year and 3 - month [78][79].

证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 08 月 17 日 银行资负跟踪 20250817 防范空转，长债调整 总量研究/银行 推荐（维持） | | | wenxueyang@cmschina.com.cn 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 41 | 0.8 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 11078.3 | 11.3 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 10489.1 | 11.8 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -6.5 11.6 33.3 相对表现 -11.1 4.9 7.6 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Aug/24 Dec/24 Apr/25 Jul/25 (%) 银行 沪深300 相关报告 1、《每年到期贷款有多少？—银行 研思录 13》2025-08-15 2、《如何看待 7 月信贷和非银存款？ —2025 年 7 月金融数据点评》 2025-08-14 3、《两项贴息政策总结和影响—政 策点评》2025-08-12 王先爽 S1090524100006 wangxi ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The tax period has initiated, leading to a marginal tightening of liquidity, with R001 remaining stable at 1.35% for 10 consecutive trading days[1] - On August 15, the central bank switched to a net injection of CNY 116 billion, with R001 rising by 9 basis points to 1.44%[1][11] - The CNEX liquidity sentiment index increased to 50-54 on August 14, indicating a shift in market sentiment[1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Following the tax period, liquidity is expected to ease, with overnight rates likely returning to around OMO-5 basis points[2] - The government bond net payment decreased to CNY 2,641 billion, significantly lower than the previous week's CNY 4,604 billion[5][31] - The upcoming week (August 18-22) will see a total of CNY 9,318 billion maturing in the open market, including CNY 7,118 billion in reverse repos[3][20] Group 3: Interbank Market - The weighted issuance rate of interbank certificates of deposit rose slightly to 1.61%, up 1 basis point from the previous week[6][36] - The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit was CNY 7,747 billion, with a net financing of -CNY 1,318 billion[6][44] - The average maturity of interbank certificates of deposit extended to 8.1 months, compared to 6.4 months the previous week[6][45]

Group 1: Monetary Supply and Loan Data - In July, new social financing (社融) was 1.16 trillion yuan, below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 1.63 trillion yuan[1] - New RMB loans decreased by 500 million yuan, contrasting with the expected increase of 3 billion yuan, resulting in a year-on-year decline of 3.1 billion yuan[4] - M2 growth accelerated to 8.8% year-on-year, up from 8.3% in June, exceeding the expected 8.3%[7] Group 2: Government Debt and Fiscal Policy - The net issuance of government bonds in July was 1.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 555.9 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing approximately 4.1 percentage points to the year-on-year growth of social financing[4] - Total net issuance of government bonds for the first seven months reached 8.9 trillion yuan, up by 4.9 trillion yuan year-on-year, indicating a proactive fiscal policy[1] - Broad fiscal spending grew by 8.9% in the first half of the year, significantly higher than the -2.8% in the same period last year[6] Group 3: Loan Demand and Economic Indicators - The year-on-year growth rate of RMB loans fell to 6.9% in July from 7.1% in June, reflecting weak private sector loan demand[4] - July saw a decrease of 3.1 billion yuan in new short-term and medium-to-long-term loans for residents, primarily due to weakened real estate demand[6] - The month-on-month growth rate of social financing adjusted for seasonality increased from 8.4% in June to 9.6% in July, indicating a potential stabilization in short-term economic growth[1]

Government Debt Financing - Net financing for government debt in week 32 (8/4-8/10) was 421.4 billion, and in week 33 (8/11-8/17) it was 200.9 billion, totaling 9.6 trillion, exceeding last year's figure by 4.9 trillion[1][5] - The net financing for national bonds and new local bonds in week 32 was 386.1 billion, and in week 33 it was 264 billion, with a cumulative broad deficit of 7.7 trillion, achieving 65.0% of the annual target[1][5] - National bonds net financing in week 32 was 338.6 billion, and in week 33 it was 214.6 billion, with a cumulative total of 4.3 trillion, reaching 65.2% of the annual target[1][7] Local and Special Bonds - Local debt net financing in week 32 was 82.8 billion, while in week 33 it was -13.7 billion, with a cumulative total of 5.3 trillion, exceeding last year's figure by 3 trillion[1][9] - New general bonds in week 32 amounted to 7.3 billion, and in week 33 it was 30.3 billion, with a cumulative total of 545.6 billion, achieving 68.2% of the annual target[1][9] - New special bonds in week 32 were 40.3 billion, and in week 33 it was 19 billion, with a cumulative total of 2.8 trillion, reaching 64.0% of the annual target[2][12] - Special new bonds issued totaled 857.9 billion, with 102.8 billion issued in August alone, accounting for 61% of the new special bonds[2][12] Risk and Market Indicators - Special refinancing bonds in week 32 had no issuance, while in week 33 it was 1.2 billion, with a cumulative total of 1.9 trillion, achieving 94% of the issuance target[2][21] - Urban investment bonds in week 32 had net financing of 20.6 billion, while week 33 is projected to be -21.5 billion, with the total balance of urban investment bonds below 10.3 trillion[2][26] - Fixed asset investment year-on-year growth is at 2.80%, retail sales growth is at 4.80%, and export growth is at 7.20%[4]