[Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 10 日 证券研究报告|宏观跟踪周报 [Table_Title] 税期未至，资金面依然平稳 [Table_Title2] 流动性跟踪 [Table_Summary] ►概况：年初，资金面如期转松 1 月 5-9 日，跨年后，尽管月初央行大额回笼跨年资金投放，但在财政支出的 作用下，资金利率自发回归低位。周一周二 R001 稳定在 1.33%附近，然而随着连 续回笼造成的流动性缺口压力不断集聚，资金利率自周中开始缓步上行。即便周四 周五回笼压力缓释，央行操作转向净投放（分别净投放 99、340 亿元），但上行趋 势依旧未改，于周五升至 1.35%，不过整体仍运行于 OMO利率下方。7天资金利率 走势与之分化，周一至周三 R007 由 1.45%连续升至 1.53%后，随着买断式逆回购 等额续作落地，利率重回下行通道，周五收于 1.52%。 ►展望：税期扰动之前，资金面大概率继续维持平稳宽松 展望下周（1月 12-16日），资金常规占用水平降至低位，税期的影响预计在16 日（周五）之后逐步显现。在此之前，资金面大概率继续维持平稳宽松，隔夜利率 围绕 1.35%附近波 ...

固定收益点评 一季度政府债发行的四大特点 岁末年初，政府债供给冲击、权益市场强预期、长债配置需求不足，为近 期债市走弱的核心扰动。一季度政府债供给压力如何，是否构成债市的重 要约束，我们对此展开分析。 一季度政府债发行计划： 证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2026 01 08 年 月 日 本月债市或保持震荡，等待月底可能出现的配置机会。目前债市面临多重 冲击，1 月信贷和政府债券或面临冲量高峰期，同时股市走强、通胀阶段 性回升、央行购债规模有限等都对债市产生不利影响。但也需要看到，随 着债券利率上升，债券相对性价比也在发生变化。交易结构中配置力量或 逐步增强，以及交易型机构仓位的下降，意味着推动债市企稳力量在逐步 累积。因此，我们预计 1 月债市或保持震荡，短期利率存在冲高可能。月 底供给冲击过后，预计债市有望逐步修复，短期继续以短端加杠杆策略为 主，静待配置机会。 风险提示：外部风险超预期；货币政策超预期；风险偏好恢复超预期。 作者 分析师 杨业伟 执业证书编号：S0680520050001 邮箱：yangyewei@gszq.com 特点一：今年一季度地方债发行计划规模或低于去 ...

通过更广泛的资产配置来应对不确定性。 经历了2025年的罕见普涨行情后，2026年市场进入新一轮资产配置博弈。去年，全球主要股指均录得正 收益，中国资产表现尤为亮眼，贵金属市场也迎来火爆走势。 站在全球经济与市场周期的关键节点，主要经济体增长动能切换、货币政策取向变化以及地缘格局重 塑，正共同塑造新一轮资产定价逻辑。渣打银行日前发布《2026年全球市场展望》并表示，随着美国经 济"软着陆"概率上升、全球贸易紧张局势边际缓和，以及人工智能持续推动生产率提升，2026年风险资 产有望整体跑赢，但市场分化将更加显著，投资者需要通过更广泛的资产配置来应对不确定性。 渣打认为，中国可能在2026年推出更果断的刺激政策，"十五五"规划建议的发布将进一步明确先进技术 投资方向，从而改善企业盈利预期。在A股及H股方面，渣打认为市场估值仍显著低于全球水平，亚太 整体对全球股票存在折让。若美股资金出现流出，小体量市场如A股可能展现更高弹性。A股可关注政 策支持的硬科技及部分消费板块，H股重点关注科技、通信服务及高股息国企。 相较之下，欧洲（除英国）和日本股票被下调至低配。此外，科技股仍是市场关注主线，但投资逻辑需 从"讲三五年故 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 53rd week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress, weekly issuance amounts, and net financing scales of various types of bonds as of December 31, 2025, along with the planned issuance for the next week [3][7][9][13][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog New Special Bonds - As of 12/31, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 104.4% [3] - This week, new special bonds worth 1.45 billion yuan were issued, a 1.25 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week, and 8.74 billion yuan is planned to be issued next week [3] - In December, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 13.49 billion yuan [4] New General Bonds - As of 12/31, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 96.3% [8] - This week, no new general bonds were issued, the same as the previous week, and 100 million yuan is planned to be issued next week [7] - In December, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds was 3.84 billion yuan [5] Local Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 1.74 billion yuan, a 2.06 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week, and 11.77 billion yuan is planned for next week [9] - As of 12/31, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 103.1% [10] Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 0 yuan, a 17.8 - billion - yuan decrease from the previous week, and 39.5 billion yuan is planned for next week [13] - As of 12/31, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 98.2% [14] Government Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of government bonds was 1.74 billion yuan, a 15.74 - billion - yuan decrease from the previous week, and 51.27 billion yuan is planned for next week [15] - As of 12/31, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 100.4% [15]

2026 年 1 月 4 日 重点转至政府债发行——资产配置周报 分析师：罗云峰 S1050524060001 luoyf2@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：黄海澜 S1050523050002 huanghl@cfsc.com.cn 相关研究 1、《资金面超预期松弛——资产配 置周报》2025-12-21 2、《事件性冲击结束——资产配置 周报》2025-12-14 3、《流动性高点确认，关注事件性 冲击——资产配置周报》2025-12- 07 投资要点 ▌ 一、国家资产负债表分析 负债端。最新更新的数据显示，2025 年 11 月实体部门负债 增速录得 8.6%，前值 8.7%，符合预期。预计 2025 年 12 月实 体部门负债增速下降至 8.3%附近，低于 2024 年底的 8.8%， 与稳定宏观杠杆率的目标一致。金融部门方面，上周资金面 边际上有所收敛，在 2025 年 12 月下旬资金面宽松超预期之 后，即便 2026 年 1 月资金面风险不大，再进一步明显改善的 概率也在下降。我们认为，观察重点转至 2026 年 1 月政府债 发行情况，就现有信息来看，2026 年 1 月政府债发行中规中 矩， ...

固 定 收 益 华福证券 2025 年 12 月 31 日 迷雾中酝酿曙光——1 月债券策略 团队成员 投资要点： 12 月债券市场受机构行为等因素影响仍然维持震荡格局。尽管资金面 进一步转松，但长端利率受限于对跨年后潜在利空的担忧，迟迟难以回落。 这些潜在的风险因素包括 Q1 政府债发行、信贷冲量对银行信贷的冲击、 公募新规的落地以及 A 股与商品价格的持续上行。尽管这些因素确实存在 不确定性，但目前来看，市场担忧的极端情形也未必会发生。 固 定 收 益 专 题 由于近年来政府债供给期限的不断拉长，明年超长债的供需矛盾可能 是当前市场担忧最大的潜在利空。尽管中央经济工作会议在财政方面并未 显示进一步大幅扩张的态度，2026 年赤字率可能维持在 4%，政府债供给 规模相较于 2025 可能仅会出现小幅扩张，但由于保费收入增速放缓、部分 大行银行账簿利率风险指标已接近监管阙值，央行购债或仍聚焦中短久期， 市场对 1 月地方债大规模发行后机构的承接能力仍然存在怀疑。 目前合计有 20 个地区公布了 Q1 计划，规模达到 16877 亿元，而它们 2025Q1 的实际发行规模 16672 亿元。如果比较其中 12 ...

中信证券研报称，预计2026年政府债总量供给可能温和增长。以2023~2025年国债净融资进度均值作为 参考，我们预测了2026年全年一般国债的净融资情况，预计Q2净供给压力可能较为集中。预计新增一 般债发行维持偏缓进度，新增专项债发行可能在Q2末存在发行高峰。2025年再融资债发行和地方债到 期比例加大，预计2026年这一特征会延续。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 52nd week of 2025, presenting the issuance and net - financing progress of various types of bonds, including new special bonds, new general bonds, local bonds, and national debt [4][7][12]. 3. Summary by Bond Type New Special Bonds - This week, new special bond issuance was 2 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.2 billion yuan compared to last week. As of December 28, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 104.0%. Next week, 14.5 billion yuan is planned for issuance [4]. - As of December 28, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in December was 120.4 billion yuan [4]. New General Bonds - This week, new general bond issuance was 0 billion yuan, a decrease of 6 billion yuan compared to last week. As of December 28, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 96.3% [7][16]. - As of December 28, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in December was 38.4 billion yuan [4]. Local Bonds - As of December 28, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 102.8% [10]. - This week, the net - financing scale of local bonds was - 0.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.12 billion yuan compared to last week. Next week, 1.74 billion yuan of net - financing is planned [16]. National Debt - As of December 28, the net - financing progress of national debt was 98.2%. This week, the net - financing scale of national debt was 178 billion yuan, an increase of 225.3 billion yuan compared to last week. Next week, the planned net - financing is 0 billion yuan [12]. Government Bonds - This week, the net - financing of government bonds was 174.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 194 billion yuan compared to last week. As of December 28, the progress of national debt net - financing plus new local bond issuance was 100.2%. Next week, 1.74 billion yuan of net - financing is planned [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The issuance progress of new special bonds as of 12/28 is 104.0%, with new special bonds issued this week amounting to 2 billion, a decrease of 27.2 billion compared to the previous week, and a planned issuance of 14.5 billion next week [4] - The cumulative issuance of new general bonds in December as of 12/28 is 3.84 billion, and the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in December is 12.04 billion [4] - The issuance progress of new local bonds as of 12/28 is 102.8%, and the issuance progress of new general bonds is 96.3% [10][16] - The net financing progress of national debt as of 12/28 is 98.2%. The net financing scale of national debt this week is 178 billion, an increase of 225.3 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing next week is 0. The net financing of government bonds this week is 174.8 billion, a decrease of 194 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing next week is 1.74 billion [12] - The net financing scale of local bonds this week is -0.32 billion, a decrease of 3.12 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing next week is 1.74 billion [16] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **New Special Bonds** - This week's issuance: 2 billion, a decrease of 27.2 billion compared to the previous week [4] - Issuance progress as of 12/28: 104.0% [4] - Next week's planned issuance: 14.5 billion [4] - **New General Bonds** - This week's issuance: 0, a decrease of 6 billion compared to the previous week [7] - Cumulative issuance in December as of 12/28: 3.84 billion [4] - Issuance progress as of 12/28: 96.3% [16] - **New Local Bonds** - Issuance progress as of 12/28: 102.8% [10] - This week's net financing scale: -0.32 billion, a decrease of 3.12 billion compared to the previous week [16] - Next week's planned net financing: 1.74 billion [16] - **National Debt** - Net financing progress as of 12/28: 98.2% [12] - This week's net financing scale: 178 billion, an increase of 225.3 billion compared to the previous week [12] - Next week's planned net financing: 0 [12] - **Government Bonds** - This week's net financing: 174.8 billion, a decrease of 194 billion compared to the previous week [12] - Next week's planned net financing: 1.74 billion [12]

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 资金平稳，杠杆提升 ——流动性和机构行为周度观察 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 12 月 22 日-12 月 26 日，央行短期逆回购小幅净回笼资金。2025 年 12 月 22 日-12 月 28 日，政府债净缴款规模较前一周显著增加，同业存单到期收益率整体横盘表现，银行间债券 市场杠杆率均值提升。2025 年 12 月 29 日-2026 年 1 月 4 日，政府债预计净缴款 138 亿元， 同业存单到期规模约为 2949 亿元。2025 年 12 月 26 日，测算中长期、短期利率风格纯债基久 期中位数周度环比分别提升 0.10 年、提升 0.20 年。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马月 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490525080001 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 资金平稳，杠杆提升 2] ——流动性和机构行为周度观察 [Table_Summary ...