1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February 2026, bond supply decreased year - on - year, mainly dragged down by inter - bank certificates of deposit. The year - on - year decline in the supply of inter - bank certificates of deposit and interest - rate bonds in February 2026 was 739.6 billion yuan and 515.2 billion yuan respectively. The combined year - on - year decline in the new custody volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit and financial bonds in February 2026 was 890.4 billion yuan, possibly due to the delayed approval of bank bond issuance quotas. The new custody volume of corporate credit bonds decreased by 69.4 billion yuan year - on - year, mainly due to the decline in urban investment bonds [4][9][19]. - In February 2026, most institutions increased their bond allocations less, except for securities firms. Commercial banks (after considering the central bank's outright reverse repurchase) increased their bond holdings 886.8 billion yuan less year - on - year; asset management accounts (i.e., non - legal person products) increased their bond holdings 240.4 billion yuan less year - on - year, insurance companies increased their bond holdings 183.8 billion yuan less year - on - year, and securities firms increased their bond holdings 42.7 billion yuan more year - on - year [4][22]. - In March 2026, the supply of government bonds decreased by nearly 500 billion yuan year - on - year, possibly due to the decrease in the pressure of stabilizing economic growth. The supply of government bonds in April 2026 may increase slightly year - on - year. The supply of inter - bank certificates of deposit and bank financial bonds continued to decline in March 2026. If the quotas for inter - bank certificates of deposit and bank financial bonds are approved at the end of March or early April, their supply may increase in April [4][40][45]. - In March 2026, the net bond - buying scale of banks in the secondary market increased year - on - year, which was related to the low base last year and the weakening of credit demand in March this year. The net bond - buying scale of insurance companies in the secondary market decreased year - on - year, possibly because insurance companies increased the proportion of equity and other assets. The net bond - buying scale of asset management accounts decreased slightly year - on - year, possibly because the new scale of bank wealth management continued to decline [4][50][51]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Supply in February 2026 - **Overall Situation**: In February 2026, the bond custody balance was 196.39 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 10.42%, a decrease of 0.98 percentage points from the previous month. The new custody scale in February was 1060.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1439.1 billion yuan [4][6]. - **By Bond Type**: Inter - bank certificates of deposit were the main bond type with a year - on - year decline in supply in February. The supply of inter - bank certificates of deposit and interest - rate bonds decreased by 739.6 billion yuan and 515.2 billion yuan respectively year - on - year. Considering January and February together, the new custody volume of national bonds and local bonds this year was roughly the same year - on - year, but the new custody volume of policy - based financial bonds decreased significantly. The combined year - on - year decline in the new custody volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit and financial bonds in February 2026 was 890.4 billion yuan, possibly due to the delayed approval of bank bond issuance quotas. The new custody volume of corporate credit bonds decreased by 69.4 billion yuan year - on - year, mainly due to the decline in urban investment bonds [4][9][19]. 3.2 Bond Allocation by Institutions in February 2026 - **Overall Situation**: Most institutions increased their bond allocations less in February 2026, except for securities firms. Commercial banks (after considering the central bank's outright reverse repurchase) increased their bond holdings 886.8 billion yuan less year - on - year; asset management accounts increased their bond holdings 240.4 billion yuan less year - on - year, insurance companies increased their bond holdings 183.8 billion yuan less year - on - year, and securities firms increased their bond holdings 42.7 billion yuan more year - on - year [22]. - **Banks**: The bond - allocation intensity of banks decreased in February 2026. The scale of banks' increased holdings of government bonds/government bond net supply was 84.9%, significantly higher than the average of 77.9% in the past 12 months, but the bond - allocation intensity in February decreased compared with January, possibly related to the year - on - year decrease in the deposit - loan difference [28]. - **Insurance Companies**: The new bond investment scale of insurance companies decreased year - on - year in February 2026. Structurally, insurance companies mainly increased their allocations of local bonds less. After excluding supply disturbances, the bond - allocation intensity of insurance companies also weakened in February. The scale of insurance companies' increased holdings of government bonds/new government bond custody was about 0.6%, a decrease from January and significantly lower than the average of 9.2% in the past 12 months [29]. - **Asset Management Accounts**: The new scale of wealth management and the supply of inter - bank certificates of deposit both decreased significantly year - on - year in February 2026, leading to a year - on - year decrease in the bond - holding increase of asset management accounts. The new scale of wealth management in February 2026 was - 1.11 trillion yuan, lower than the same period from 2023 to 2025. The contraction of the supply of inter - bank certificates of deposit in February 2026 may also be an important reason for the decline in the bond - allocation intensity of asset management accounts [33]. - **Foreign Capital and Securities Firms**: Foreign capital decreased its bond holdings by 98.2 billion yuan year - on - year, mainly reducing its holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit. The significant year - on - year decrease in the supply of inter - bank certificates of deposit in February 2026 may have limited the bond - allocation ability of foreign capital. Securities firms increased their bond holdings by 42.8 billion yuan year - on - year, mainly increasing their holdings of local bonds, possibly because the spread between local bonds and national bonds narrowed in February [38]. 3.3 Outlook for Bond Supply and Market Conditions - **Government Bonds**: In March 2026, the supply of government bonds decreased by nearly 500 billion yuan year - on - year, possibly due to the decrease in the pressure of stabilizing economic growth. The supply of government bonds in April 2026 may increase slightly year - on - year. The issuance of new local bonds in April 2026 is expected to increase year - on - year, but the issuance of refinancing bonds after deducting repayments may decrease. After combining various varieties, the supply of local bonds in April may increase slightly year - on - year [40]. - **Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit and Bank Financial Bonds**: The supply of inter - bank certificates of deposit and bank financial bonds continued to decline in March 2026. If the quotas for inter - bank certificates of deposit and bank financial bonds are approved at the end of March or early April, their supply may increase in April [45]. - **Banks, Insurance Companies, and Asset Management Accounts**: In March 2026, the net bond - buying scale of banks in the secondary market increased year - on - year, which was related to the low base last year and the weakening of credit demand in March this year. The net bond - buying scale of insurance companies in the secondary market decreased year - on - year, possibly because insurance companies increased the proportion of equity and other assets. The net bond - buying scale of asset management accounts decreased slightly year - on - year, possibly because the new scale of bank wealth management continued to decline [50][51].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In early April after the cross - quarter period, the money market is expected to loosen compared to the previous period, but in the middle and later stages, attention should be paid to the frictional impact of negative factors such as the "big tax period", the possible rapid implementation of new policy - based financial instruments, and the absorption of inter - bank deposits by banks [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Money Market - **Central Bank Operations**: From March 23 - 27, 2026, the central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase had a net investment of 2319 billion yuan. In April 2026, the maturity scale of 3M and 6M repurchase - style reverse repurchase is 11000 billion yuan and 6000 billion yuan respectively, and the maturity scale of MLF is 6000 billion yuan [2][6]. - **Funding Rates**: From March 23 - 27, 2026, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.32% and 1.40% respectively, down 0.1 basis points and basically unchanged compared with March 16 - 20; the average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.43% and 1.50% respectively, down 0.1 basis points and up 1.1 basis points compared with March 16 - 20 [6]. - **Government Bond Net Financing**: From March 23 - 29, 2026, the government bond net financing was about 6064 billion yuan, an increase of about 3001 billion yuan compared with March 16 - 22. From March 30 - April 5, 2026, the government bond net financing is expected to be about 150 billion yuan [7]. 2. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Yield to Maturity**: As of March 27, 2026, the yields to maturity of 1M and 3M inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.4150% and 1.4550% respectively, down 4.0 and 1.0 basis points compared with March 20; the yield to maturity of 1Y inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.5250%, up 1.0 basis point compared with March 20 [8]. - **Net Financing**: From March 23 - 29, 2026, the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was about 738 billion yuan. From March 30 - April 5, 2026, the maturity repayment amount of inter - bank certificates of deposit is expected to be 1513 billion yuan, and the pressure of maturity renewal has significantly decreased. The maturity scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit in April is about 2.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.46 trillion yuan and a month - on - month decrease of 0.65 trillion yuan [8]. 3. Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio**: From March 23 - 27, 2026, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.14%, down from 107.32% in March 16 - 20 [9]. - **Duration of Bond Funds**: On March 27, 2026, the median duration (MA5) of medium - and long - term interest - rate pure bond funds decreased by 0.04 years week - on - week to 4.26 years, and the median duration (MA5) of short - term interest - rate pure bond funds increased by 0.06 years week - on - week to 2.00 years [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The issuance progress of new local government bonds has not accelerated significantly. The report presents detailed data on local government bond issuance, including new bonds, refinancing bonds, and special bonds, as well as their issuance schedules and trends [1][4][5] Summary by Directory 1. Local Bond Actual and Forecasted Issuance - **Actual Issuance and Pre - issuance Disclosure**: 3月23日 - 3月29日地方债披露发行3085.59亿元，其中新增债1114.52亿元（新增一般债90.37亿元，新增专项债1024.15亿元），再融资债1971.06亿元；3月16日 - 3月22日地方债共发行3422.34亿元，其中新增债1282.78亿元（新增一般债142.30亿元，新增专项债1140.47亿元），再融资债2139.57亿元[1][4][5] - **Comparison of Planned and Actual Issuance**: In March 2026, the planned issuance of local government bonds across the country was 9075 billion yuan, a decrease of 742 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2025, while the actual disclosed issuance was 10588 billion yuan. The planned repayment of local government bonds was 4191 billion yuan, with a net financing of 4884 billion yuan. The planned issuance in April, May, and June 2026 also showed a decreasing trend compared to the same period in 2025 [7] 2. Local Bond Net Supply - **New Bond Issuance Progress**: As of March 22, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 30.88%, and that of new special bonds was 23.33% [26] - **Refinancing Bond Net Supply**: The cumulative scale of refinancing bonds minus local government bond maturities as of March 22 is presented in a graph, with the statistical scope including both issued and disclosed but unissued bonds [31] 3. Special Bond Issuance Details - **Special Refinancing Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of March 22, the fifth - round second - batch special refinancing bonds totaled 20000.00 billion yuan, and the fifth - round third - batch totaled 9055.71 billion yuan, with an additional 280.25 billion yuan newly disclosed next week. The top three regions in the fifth - round third - batch disclosure were Jiangsu (811.59 billion yuan), Sichuan (773.84 billion yuan), and Henan (680.27 billion yuan) [6] - **Special New Special Bond Issuance Statistics**: As of March 22, the special new special bonds in 2026 totaled 1630.46 billion yuan, and since 2023, 27177.18 billion yuan had been disclosed. The top three regions in terms of disclosure scale were Jiangsu (2700.35 billion yuan), Guangdong (1390.28 billion yuan), and Henan (1388.61 billion yuan). In 2026, the top three regions were Jiangsu (260.00 billion yuan), Guangdong (151.00 billion yuan), and Zhejiang (117.00 billion yuan) [6] 4. Local Bond Investment and Trading - **Primary - Secondary Spread**: Graphs show the primary and secondary spreads of local government bonds on March 16 and March 22, 2026, including spreads for different maturities (1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 15Y, 20Y, 30Y) and the overall spread, as well as their changes [41] - **Regional Secondary Spread**: A graph presents the regional secondary spreads of local government bonds [42] - **New Special Bond Investment Direction**: The graph shows the investment direction of new special bonds, with the latest month's statistics only considering the investment direction of issued new bonds [43] 5. Weighted Average Issuance Term - From March 16 - 22, the weighted average issuance term of local government bonds was 14.68 years, that of national bonds was 5.41 years, and that of government bonds was 8.83 years. From March 23 - 29, the corresponding figures were 15.47 years, 7 years, and 12.41 years respectively. As of March 20, the weighted average issuance term of local government bonds in 2026 was 16.76 years, a decrease of 0.2 years compared to the same period in 2025; that of national bonds was 5.79 years, an increase of 1.6 years; and that of government bonds was 6.17 years, a decrease of 3.7 years [8]

Fiscal Overview - The net financing of government debt in 2026 is projected to be CNY 11.89 trillion, an increase of CNY 300 billion from 2025, while its proportion to GDP is expected to decrease from 8.5% to 8.1%[13] - The overall budget expenditure growth rate is set at 4.8%, with actual spending growth likely to exceed 5% after excluding debt repayment and bank injections[13] Expenditure Structure - The general public budget expenditure is expected to grow by 4.4% in 2026, an increase of 3.4 percentage points from 2025, with significant increases in science and technology (7.1%), foreign defense (7.0%), and social security and employment (6.0%)[2] - New special bonds will focus on major project support, indicating a stronger emphasis on infrastructure and development projects compared to 2025[2] Policy Direction - The core directive of the 2026 fiscal policy remains on expanding domestic demand, shifting from simple funding to a collaborative fiscal-financial model[18] - A total of CNY 250 billion is allocated for the "old-for-new" policy to stabilize consumer spending, while CNY 8 trillion in new policy financial tools will be introduced to leverage social capital[18] Revenue Challenges - Land use rights revenue is projected to decline by 52.3% from its peak in 2021, significantly impacting fiscal stability[3] - The overall tax burden in China ranks 36th among 38 major economies, indicating a need for structural reform to enhance revenue stability[3] Reform Initiatives - The government plans to increase the proportion of state capital revenue contributions, with state capital operating budget revenue growing by CNY 175.5 billion in 2025[4] - The introduction of zero-based budgeting and the reduction of "three public" expenditures by over 7% are key measures to improve fiscal efficiency[4]

Liquidity Overview - In the first week of March, the liquidity environment turned loose, with a net withdrawal of 1.56 trillion yuan, including a net withdrawal of 1.36 trillion yuan from reverse repos[1] - The overnight rate (R001) decreased to 1.36% and the 7-day rate (R007) to 1.51%, but R001 rebounded to 1.39% by Friday due to cumulative liquidity pressure[1][14] Certificate of Deposit (CD) Trends - The issuance rate for 1-year CDs has dropped to 1.55-1.56%, the lowest since January 2025, down from a range of 1.58%-1.60% over the past month[1][14] - The net issuance of CDs in the first week of March was 133.4 billion yuan, indicating a shift in supply dynamics as banks prepare for the upcoming quarter-end[2][15] Market Outlook - The liquidity is expected to remain loose in the coming week (March 9-13), with R001 projected to stay around 1.35% and R007 slightly above the OMO by 5-10 basis points[3][20] - The upcoming tax period is anticipated to have a limited impact on liquidity, with historical average tax payments around 1.1 trillion yuan[3][21] Government Debt and Payments - The government debt net payment is projected to be -202.1 billion yuan for March 9-13, indicating a negative net payment scenario[5][20] - The total amount of government debt due during this period is expected to be 4.975 trillion yuan, with a significant portion being rolled over[5][32] Interbank Market and Bill Rates - The 1-month bill rate increased by 8 basis points to 1.53%, while the 3-month and 6-month rates decreased to 1.38% and 1.17%, respectively[6][37] - Major banks have shifted to net selling in the bill market, with a net sell of 13.1 billion yuan during the first week of March[6][40] Pressure on Certificates of Deposit - The upcoming maturity of CDs is set to reach 992.4 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous week's 583 billion yuan, indicating increased maturity pressure[7][44] - The average issuance term for CDs has lengthened to 8.7 months, up from 7.0 months the previous week, suggesting banks are preparing for the quarter-end[7][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The capital market in March 2026 is expected to be relatively loose, but attention should be paid to the asset - liability situation of banks. Factors such as high maturity volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit, possible "rushing for volume" of bank credit at the end of the quarter, demand for improving liquidity regulatory indicators, impact of foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus on bank asset - liability behavior, and potential regulatory control over bank inter - bank liability behavior need to be monitored [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Funding Situation - **Central Bank Operations**: From February 24 - 28, 2026, the central bank's short - term reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 61.14 billion yuan, and the treasury time deposit matured at 15 billion yuan. On February 25, the central bank's medium - term lending facility (MLF) had a net injection of 30 billion yuan. From March 2 - 6, 2026, 152.5 billion yuan of open - market reverse repurchases will mature. In March, the maturity amounts of 3M and 6M repurchase agreements are 100 billion yuan and 60 billion yuan respectively, and the MLF maturity amount is 45 billion yuan [2][6]. - **Funding Rates**: From February 24 - 27, 2026, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.37% and 1.43% respectively, up 3.9 and 2.4 basis points compared with February 9 - 13, 2026. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.51% and 1.57% respectively, down 1.1 and 1.0 basis points compared with February 9 - 13, 2026 [6]. - **Government Bond Net Financing**: From February 23 - March 1, 2026, the government bond net financing was about 19.036 billion yuan, 52.33 billion yuan less than that from February 9 - 15, 2026. From March 2 - 8, 2026, the government bond net financing is expected to be about 21.2 billion yuan, with the net financing of national bonds at about - 10.5 billion yuan and that of local government bonds at about 31.7 billion yuan [7]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Yield**: As of February 27, 2026, the 1M and 3M inter - bank certificate of deposit yields were 1.4891% and 1.5550% respectively, down 6.6 basis points and basically unchanged compared with February 13, 2026. The 1Y yield was 1.5775%, basically unchanged compared with February 13, 2026 [8]. - **Net Financing**: From February 23 - March 1, 2026, the net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was about - 212.4 billion yuan. From March 2 - 8, 2026, the maturity repayment amount is expected to be 58.8 billion yuan, with a slightly lower maturity renewal pressure. The maturity scale in March is about 3.59 trillion yuan, an increase of about 0.64 trillion yuan year - on - year and about 1.73 trillion yuan month - on - month [8]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Bond Market Leverage**: From February 24 - 27, 2026, the average leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market was 107.49%, slightly lower than the average of 107.79% from February 9 - 14, 2026 [9]. - **Pure Bond Fund Duration**: On February 27, 2026, the median duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate style pure bond funds (MA5) was 4.47 years, up 0.07 years from February 13, 2026, at the 80.7% quantile since the beginning of 2022. The median duration of short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds (MA5) was 2.06 years, up 0.40 years from February 13, 2026, at the 80.9% quantile since the beginning of 2022 [9].

Liquidity Overview - The liquidity environment remained stable across the month despite three pressures: tax periods, month-end demand, and large reverse repos maturing, with R001 and R007 rates peaking at 1.47% and 1.61% respectively on February 24-25[1] - The central bank conducted significant reverse repos, averaging 380 billion CNY daily from February 24-27, alongside a net injection of 300 billion CNY via MLF, effectively alleviating liquidity pressure[1] March Outlook - In March, liquidity is expected to maintain a balanced and loose state, with R001 projected to fluctuate within the range of [OMO-10bp, OMO] and R007 likely to be 5-10bp above OMO[2] - The anticipated net financing scale for government bonds in March is estimated to be between 1.15 trillion and 1.39 trillion CNY, a decrease from February's 1.42 trillion CNY[2] Market Dynamics - From March 2-6, a total of 25,250 billion CNY will mature, with 15,250 billion CNY in 7-day reverse repos, indicating higher maturity pressure than historical averages[3] - Government bond payment pressure is expected to increase slightly, with an estimated net payment of 2,820 billion CNY for the first week of March, up from 1,904 billion CNY the previous week[4] Bill Market Trends - By February 27, the 1M bill rate rose by 50bp to 1.40%, while the 3M and 6M rates increased by 30bp and 14bp to 1.50% and 1.29% respectively, indicating a rising trend in bill rates[5] - Major banks turned net sellers of bills, selling 49.7 billion CNY from February 24-26, contrasting with a net purchase of 11.3 billion CNY the previous week[5] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The upcoming week (March 2-6) will see 5,830 billion CNY in certificates of deposit maturing, a decrease from the previous week's 7,480 billion CNY, but the total for March is projected to reach 36,000 billion CNY, higher than the 27,000-30,000 billion CNY range of the past three years[6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In January 2026, the social financing increased slightly year-on-year, mainly supported by the earlier issuance and higher net financing scale of government bonds compared to the same period in 2025. The credit performance was in line with market expectations, with a year-on-year decrease in January for the first time since 2018. Both corporate and household medium - and long - term loans were weak, relying mainly on short - term loans. It is expected that this month's social financing will have little impact on the bond market, and it is recommended to continuously track high - frequency credit indicators [1][5][30] Summary by Related Content Social Financing Situation - In January 2026, the new social financing was 7.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1654 billion yuan, reaching a record high for the same period. Direct financing supported the social financing, with a year - on - year increase of 3228 billion yuan to 1.51 trillion yuan. On the contrary, on - balance - sheet financing dragged down the social financing, with a year - on - year decrease of 2334 billion yuan to 4.95 trillion yuan, while off - balance - sheet financing increased slightly year - on - year [1][7] - Among direct financing, government bonds had a net financing scale of 1.18 trillion yuan in January 2026, a year - on - year increase of 2831 billion yuan, reaching a record high for the same period. Corporate bonds increased by 579 billion yuan year - on - year to 5033 billion yuan, the second - highest since 2020 [12] RMB Credit Situation - In January 2026, RMB credit decreased by 4200 billion yuan year - on - year to 4.71 trillion yuan, the first year - on - year decrease in the "good start" month since 2018. The corporate sector decreased by 3300 billion yuan year - on - year, while the household sector increased slightly by 127 billion yuan year - on - year [2][16] - In the corporate sector, only short - term corporate loans increased by 3100 billion yuan year - on - year to 2.05 trillion yuan, reaching a record high for the same period. Medium - and long - term corporate loans decreased by 2800 billion yuan year - on - year to 3.18 trillion yuan, with the growth rate dropping by 0.5 percentage points to 7.58%. Bill financing decreased by 3690 billion yuan year - on - year to - 8739 billion yuan, and the growth rate of bill financing balance dropped to 9.17% [2][19] Money Supply and Deposit Situation - Due to the late Spring Festival in 2026 (falling in February), the cash - withdrawal demand of residents and enterprises in January was low, resulting in limited growth of M0 and a significant drop in the M0 growth rate to 2.7% [3][24] - In January 2026, the growth rates of M1 and M2 rebounded, rising from 3.8% and 8.5% in December 2025 to 4.9% and 9% respectively. The maturity of a large amount of time deposits and the increase in corporate foreign exchange settlement surplus may have contributed to the rebound of M1 and M2 [4][24] - In January 2026, corporate deposit increments were significantly higher than the same period in previous years, while household deposit increments were lower. Fiscal deposit increments were also higher than the same period in previous years, possibly due to the higher net financing scale of government bonds. Non - bank deposit increments were high because the stock market was still rising, attracting funds into the market [5][26]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In January, the new social financing (社融) increased by 7.2 trillion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 0.2 trillion RMB[7] - The total social financing stock grew by 8.2% year-on-year, while M2 increased by 9.0% year-on-year[7] - Government bonds and undiscounted bills were the main supports for the increase in social financing[7] Group 2: Loan Trends - Both medium and long-term loans for residents and enterprises saw a year-on-year decrease, while short-term loans increased for both sectors[7] - New loans in January amounted to 4.7 trillion RMB, a decrease of 0.4 trillion RMB year-on-year[7] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Liquidity - M1 and M2 both showed a year-on-year increase, with M1 at 4.9% and M2 at 9.0%[7] - Non-bank deposits continued to increase, indicating a trend towards liquidity in deposits[7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The year-on-year growth of social financing may face downward pressure as the base increases towards July, but is expected to remain above 7%[7] - The central bank is likely to maintain a loose liquidity stance, with M2 expected to stay above 7%[7] Group 5: Risks - Economic recovery may not meet expectations, potentially affecting credit growth and social financing[9] - Uncertainties regarding U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts could impact China's monetary policy[9]

Group 1 - The most challenging period for the real estate sector may have passed, with signs of marginal recovery in supply and demand. The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transaction area in major cities narrowed by over 5 percentage points to -14.7% in the last 3-4 weeks before the festival [3][9][47] - Government revenue from real estate funds saw a year-on-year decline narrowing to -11.7% in December 2025, while land transfer income decreased by 22.9%, a reduction of 3.9 percentage points compared to November [3][9][47] - Local governments have introduced breakthrough policies to support the acquisition of second-hand housing, with Shanghai's pilot program being particularly noteworthy. The program focuses on acquiring small second-hand apartments under 70 square meters in key urban areas [3][9][48] Group 2 - Multiple ministries have strengthened policy coordination, with fiscal and financial policies working together to support three key areas: consumption, equipment investment, and the private economy. In January, the net financing scale of government bonds increased by over 280 billion yuan year-on-year [4][20][49] - The total issuance of government bonds, including new general bonds and special bonds, reached 12,915 billion yuan by February 8, 2026, an increase of 2,860 billion yuan year-on-year [4][20][49] - The central bank announced an increase in the quota for re-loans for technological innovation and transformation by 400 billion yuan, aiming to stimulate private investment and support small and medium-sized enterprises [4][25][49] Group 3 - Local governments have proactively advanced economic work, moving the timing of policy deployment earlier. Some regions have held their first meetings of the year immediately after New Year's Day to kickstart annual work [6][32][51] - By the end of January, 20 provinces and cities had disclosed their GDP targets for 2026, with a weighted average of 5.1%, indicating a more pragmatic and positive outlook [6][35][51] - Investment growth targets show regional differentiation, with western regions demonstrating stronger momentum, such as Xinjiang setting a target of around 8% for investment growth [6][35][51] Group 4 - The 2026 Spring Festival will feature the longest holiday in history, making holiday consumption a key driver for boosting first-quarter domestic demand and solidifying the foundation for economic recovery throughout the year. Policies have shifted from traditional physical consumption stimulation to a balanced focus on both physical and service consumption [7][42][52] - Local governments have implemented significant consumption-boosting policies, including the issuance of large consumer vouchers and cultural tourism subsidies in regions like Henan and Hubei [7][42][52] - Various regions are launching rich cultural tourism activities and distributing Spring Festival consumption vouchers to enhance consumer engagement during the holiday [7][42][52]