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9月银行兑现浮盈压力预计不大
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-25 13:43
Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Insights - The pricing of bank assets and liabilities this year shows a trend of "stable loan rates and improved deposit costs," effectively alleviating NIM pressure and laying a solid foundation for achieving annual profit targets [9][18] - The bank's gold market trading and allocation segments are facing certain pressures this year compared to last year's "bull market," primarily due to increased interest rate volatility affecting capital gains and a "preserve capital, minimal profit" state for allocation [2][19] - The contribution of the bank's lending and deposit segment is significant, while the gold market segment faces pressure in completing KPIs, leading to a weaker motivation to realize floating profits through selling old bonds in September [3][36] Summary by Sections Section 1: Asset and Liability Pricing - The trend of stable loan rates and improved deposit costs has been observed, with new corporate loan and mortgage rates stabilizing at 3.2% and 3.1% respectively [9][10] - The average deposit cost rate for listed banks is expected to decline to 1.6-1.65% in the first half of 2025, with a potential further decrease due to the expiration of high-interest fixed deposits [12][36] Section 2: Gold Market Performance - The performance of the bank's gold market trading and allocation segments is under pressure, with capital gains ability significantly weakened due to increased interest rate volatility [2][22] - The allocation segment may continue to face a "preserve capital, minimal profit" state, influenced by the strong liability attributes of CDs and mismatches in loan and deposit growth rates [23][26] Section 3: Contribution of Lending and Deposit Segment - The lending and deposit segment is expected to contribute significantly to overall bank profits, with a narrowing of interest margin declines anticipated [31][36] - The gold market segment's KPI completion faces challenges, and the motivation to sell old bonds for profit realization is weak as the year progresses [3][36]