行业报告 | 行业专题研究 银行 证券研究报告 9 月银行兑现浮盈压力预计不大 在今年三季度市场出现大幅调整的情况下，是否会加剧银行卖出老券调剂利润表的行为，对此 我们认为： 一、今年银行资产负债定价呈现"贷款利率平稳、存款成本改善"的趋势，NIM 压力得到有 效缓解，为实现全年盈利目标奠定了良好基础 得益于贷款供求矛盾改善，以及自律的执行，今年新发放企业贷款和房贷利率基本上已稳定在 3.2%和 3.1%，且监管当局更倾向于通过财政贴息等方式，来引导降低实体经济融资成本。 在此情况下，我们预计今年贷款利率降幅，可能是 2019 年 LPR 改革以来幅度最小的一年， 银行资产端定价有望得到明显稳固。 如果再考虑下半年依然有较大规模的高息定期存款到期，预计银行存款成本改善趋势得以进一 步延续。 基于存贷板块定价端的良好表现，尽管今年规模上可能有所"缩表"（增速下滑），但无论是银 行息差还是营收增长，压力都有望得到一定程度缓释。 二、今年银行金市交易盘与配置盘均面临一定压力 与存贷板块相比，今年银行大金市板块业绩完成情况，与去年"大牛市"相比，不可同日而语， 主要表现为两个方面： 对于交易盘而言，由于今年利率波动明 ...

2025.08. 25 本文字数：1143，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一 财经 安卓 近日，一疑似杭州银行（600926.SH）员工在社交平台发帖，匿名举报杭州上城区天城路杭州银行城 东支行存在周末无偿加班行为。发帖人称："领导自己不来，全体员工周六从早到晚坐一天"。 对此，第一财经联系发帖人了解情况，对方未详细回应。第一财经求证涉事银行支行，该支行回应称， 经初步核查，目前未发现存在周末强制全体员工加班的行为。但存在有员工或团队因工作需要，周末到 支行处理事情的可能。后续将更多关注员工诉求，不断加强员工关怀。 杭州银行小程序显示，杭州市城东支行营业时间为：个人业务周一至周六9点至17点，对公业务周一至 周五9点至17点。城东支行网点人流量数据显示，该行7月1日至7月31日时间段内，日平均人流量为 60.33人，最高80人，每周六的人流量均较低，仅33人至48人之间，比如，7月5日的人流量仅33人。 上述"加班帖"一时间引起了多位银行人的共鸣。一博主在社交平台上晒出银行总行各个岗位的加班量化 指标，诸如总行战略规划岗季度末40%时间通宵；风险管理岗风险事件时24小时待命；产品研发岗核 心产品上线前两周无 ...

银行研思录 12 每年存款到期有多少？ 总量研究/银行 所有价格都是货币（流动性）现象，资本市场也不例外，所以每一轮牛市过程 中，都会有银行存款迁徙资本市场的逻辑出现。银行研思录第 12 篇，我们将探 讨银行存款结构、到期节奏及银行息差和流动性影响。 证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 08 月 12 日 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -5.6 15.9 36.6 相对表现 -8.3 9.8 12.9 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Aug/24 Dec/24 Mar/25 Jul/25 (%) 银行 沪深300 相关报告 1、《增值税过渡期中债估值的潜在 影响—银行资负跟踪 20250810》 2025-08-11 2、《银行市值的几个口径及险资举 牌比例释疑》2025-08-07 3、《7 月社融货币预测—招证银行金 融数据前瞻》2025-08-06 王先爽 S1090524100006 wangxianshuang@cmschina.com. cn 文雪阳 S1090524110001 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share banking sector has shown positive mid-year performance for 2025, with several banks reporting significant growth in both operating income and net profit, indicating a robust financial environment [1][2]. Group 1: Performance of Listed Banks - Five listed banks have reported positive growth in operating income and net profit for the first half of 2025, with four banks achieving double-digit growth in net profit [1][2]. - Notable performances include Hangzhou Bank with a net profit growth of 16.67% and Changshu Bank with an operating income growth of 10.10% [2][3]. - Ningbo Bank leads with an operating income of 371.60 billion yuan and a net profit of 147.72 billion yuan [2][3]. Group 2: Asset Quality and Capital Adequacy - As of June 2025, all five banks reported positive growth in total assets, with Ningbo Bank's total assets reaching 3.47 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.04% [2][3]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratios for the banks remained stable or slightly decreased, with Hangzhou Bank maintaining the highest provision coverage ratio at 520.89% despite a year-on-year decline of 20.56 percentage points [5][6]. - Capital adequacy ratios for Ningbo Bank and Hangzhou Bank improved, with Ningbo Bank's capital adequacy ratio at 15.21% and core Tier 1 capital ratio at 9.65% [6][7]. Group 3: Non-Listed Banks Performance - Non-listed banks, including Chengdu Rural Commercial Bank, have also reported positive results, with Chengdu Rural Commercial Bank achieving an operating income of 95.37 billion yuan and a net profit of 42.31 billion yuan, both showing year-on-year growth [8][9]. - Other non-listed banks such as Tai Long Bank and Qin Nong Bank reported declines in net profit, indicating mixed performance across the sector [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Hangzhou Bank anticipates a better overall decline in interest margins for 2025 due to rapidly decreasing external funding costs and ongoing business structure optimization [5]. - Both Ningbo Bank and Hangzhou Bank expressed confidence in maintaining stable asset quality despite potential risks in small and micro loans [7].

Core Viewpoint - The June LPR remains unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year rate and 3.5% for the 5-year rate, which aligns with market expectations following the previous monetary policy adjustments [1][2]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The stability of the June LPR is attributed to the recent monetary policy changes, where a 10 basis point reduction was implemented in May, leading to a corresponding adjustment in LPR rates [1][2]. - Experts indicate that the current economic conditions do not necessitate further immediate adjustments to the LPR, as the policy rates are expected to remain stable [2][3]. Group 2: Market Expectations - Analysts believe that the unchanged LPR reflects the lack of significant changes in the factors influencing LPR pricing, thus meeting market expectations [2]. - The chief economist from China Minsheng Bank noted that the recent financial policies aim to stabilize market expectations, contributing to the current LPR stability [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - While there may be potential for future LPR reductions, market participants are advised to temper their expectations regarding the timing and extent of such adjustments [3]. - The ongoing reduction of deposit rates by major banks is expected to continue, which may impact the LPR if further reductions are pursued [3]. - Experts suggest that the focus should be on reducing overall financing costs rather than solely relying on LPR adjustments, especially in light of external factors such as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged in June, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, following a previous reduction of 10 basis points in May. This stability aligns with market expectations, and while there is no immediate need for further policy adjustments, a potential decrease in LPR later this year is anticipated [1][2][3]. Group 1: Current LPR Situation - The LPR's stability in June was expected due to unchanged policy rates and LPR pricing foundations [2][3]. - The recent financial policies, including a 10 basis point reduction in policy rates, have led to a stable LPR, with no significant changes in influencing factors [3][4]. Group 2: Banking Sector Implications - The continuous decline in credit rates has pressured bank interest margins, with the net interest margin for commercial banks dropping to a historical low of 1.43%, down 9 basis points from the previous quarter [4]. - Banks are focusing on managing liability costs and optimizing asset structures to stabilize interest margins amid declining revenue capabilities [4][5]. Group 3: Future Outlook for LPR - Industry experts believe there is still room for LPR adjustments in the second half of the year, particularly to support domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [7]. - The potential for further LPR reductions may be influenced by external uncertainties and the need to lower financing costs for enterprises and residents [7][8]. - The timing for additional policy measures may shift to August or the fourth quarter, depending on economic conditions and the need to address demand pressures [8][9].

Group 1 - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains stable with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5% after a 10 basis points reduction last month [1] - The recent monetary policy emphasizes balancing support for the real economy while maintaining the health of the banking system, indicating that stabilizing net interest margins is now a key objective [2] - The net interest margin for commercial banks has dropped to a historical low of 1.43%, down 9 basis points from the previous quarter, affecting banks' ability to serve the real economy and manage risks [2] Group 2 - The downward pressure on banks' funding costs is limited due to the increasing trend of term deposits, with 74.3% of household deposits and 74% of corporate deposits being term deposits as of April 2025 [3] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans is approximately 3.2%, down about 50 basis points year-on-year, while personal housing loans average around 3.1%, down about 55 basis points [3] - The potential for new incremental policies may be delayed until after August or even into the fourth quarter, with a focus on establishing new policy financial tools to stimulate investment [4][5]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The recent round of deposit rate cuts is expected to have a positive impact on net interest margins for listed banks, with a static assessment indicating that a 10 basis point (BP) reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and deposit rate cuts would affect net interest margins by -6.15 BP and +8.33 BP respectively [4][15][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining reasonable net interest margins to better serve the real economy, suggesting that a reasonable margin could be around 1.45% if the provision coverage ratio is lowered to 150% [5][24][26] - Future regulatory measures may include self-discipline mechanisms to standardize deposit and loan pricing, and to control the average repricing cycle of deposits [6][27] Summary by Sections 1. Impact of New Deposit Rate Cuts - The new round of deposit rate adjustments began on May 20, with various rates reduced by 5 to 25 BP across different terms [14][16] - The expected positive impact on net interest margins is based on the assumption that 80% of term deposits are within a 2-year period [15] 2. Importance of Protecting Bank Interest Margins - Protecting interest margins is crucial for banks to maintain stable operations and support the real economy [5][24] - The report calculates that if the provision coverage ratio is adjusted to 150%, the reasonable interest margin would be approximately 1.45% [26] 3. Future Regulatory and Asset-Liability Management Outlook - The report outlines potential future actions, including self-regulation to avoid excessive competition in deposit and loan pricing [6][27] - It highlights the importance of matching the repricing cycles of loans and deposits to stabilize interest rates [27] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Bank of Communications due to their expected performance in a declining interest rate environment [36] - It also recommends regional banks such as Chongqing Bank and Chengdu Bank, which may benefit from fiscal policy support [36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating a relative strength of over 5% compared to the market benchmark index [6][19]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to benefit from a period of intensive policy implementation aimed at stabilizing growth, with monetary easing leading the way, followed by fiscal measures that are anticipated to significantly impact the banking fundamentals in 2025 [2][6]. - The downward adjustment of deposit rates is expected to provide important support for bank net interest margins, despite short-term pressure from broad interest rate declines [2][6]. - 2025 is projected to be a year of solidifying asset quality for banks, with improved risk expectations in real estate and urban investment properties underpinned by policy support [2][6]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Focus on two main investment lines: high-dividend stocks and city commercial banks with strong fundamentals and regional advantages [7]. - Recommended banks include Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, and others [7]. Interest Rate Adjustments - On May 20, 2025, the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) were both lowered by 10 basis points, with state-owned banks also reducing deposit rates across various terms [6][14]. - The impact of the recent interest rate cuts on bank net interest margins is expected to be neutral, with a projected increase of 3.1 basis points for listed banks in 2025 [6][14]. Deposit Rate Trends - The report highlights a trend of decreasing deposit rates since October 2024, with significant reductions across various terms, indicating a shift in the banking landscape [8][9]. - Despite the pressure from high-interest deposits maturing, the overall deposit growth remains stable, with a net increase of 1.12 trillion yuan in new resident deposits from January to April 2025 [6][14]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The report anticipates a significant improvement in asset quality for banks in 2025, particularly in sectors previously under stress, such as real estate [2][6]. - The ongoing adjustments in deposit rates are expected to mitigate the risks associated with deposit disintermediation, with a controlled outflow of deposits to non-bank financial products [6][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking industry, indicating a relative strength compared to the market benchmark index [6][7]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to benefit from a period of intensive policy implementation aimed at stabilizing growth, with monetary easing leading the way, followed by fiscal measures. This is anticipated to have a profound impact on the banking fundamentals in 2025 [2]. - The downward adjustment of deposit rates is expected to protect the banks' net interest margins, while the risk of deposit disintermediation is likely to be moderate [6]. - 2025 is projected to be a year of solidifying asset quality for banks, with improved risk expectations in real estate and urban investment properties underpinned by supportive policies [2]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Focus on two main investment lines: 1. High dividend and core index weight banks such as Agricultural Bank of China (601288), Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), China Merchants Bank (600036), and Industrial Bank (601166) [7]. 2. City commercial banks with strong fundamentals and regional advantages, including Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077), Chongqing Bank (601963), Jiangsu Bank (600919), Qingdao Bank (002948), and Shanghai Bank (601229) [7]. Interest Rate Adjustments - On May 20, 2025, the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was lowered by 10 basis points, and state-owned banks announced reductions in deposit rates across various terms [6]. - The first round of interest rate cuts in 2025 is expected to have a neutral impact on banks' net interest margins, with an estimated increase of 3.1 basis points for listed banks in 2025 due to the deposit rate adjustments [6][14]. Deposit Rate Trends - The report highlights a trend of decreasing deposit rates, with significant reductions observed since October 2024, particularly among smaller banks, which have been more aggressive in their rate cuts compared to larger banks [9][14]. - The overall decline in deposit rates is expected to lead to a more favorable structure for new deposits, thereby supporting banks' funding costs [6]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The report anticipates a significant improvement in asset quality for banks in 2025, driven by policy support and better management of risks in key sectors such as real estate [2]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.43% in Q1 2025, reflecting a smaller decline compared to previous years, indicating a potential stabilization in margins moving forward [6].