Core Viewpoint - The A-share banking sector is expected to achieve a market value breakthrough in 2025, but the overall growth rate is slowing and underperforming compared to the broader market, with significant individual stock differentiation [1][7]. Market Performance - As of December 31, 2025, the Wind Banking Index reached 7180.68 points, with an annual growth of 12.04%, lower than the previous year's 43.56%. The total market value of the sector at year-end was 15.71 trillion yuan, an increase of over 15% from the beginning of the year, having briefly surpassed 16 trillion yuan [1][7]. - The banking sector exhibited a clear phase differentiation throughout the year, with a mild increase in Q1, a significant rise in Q2, a deep correction in Q3, and a recovery in Q4 [2][8]. Individual Stock Performance - In 2025, 35 out of 42 A-share listed banks saw their stock prices rise, accounting for over 83%. Among the six banks with over 20% growth, Agricultural Bank led with a 52.66% increase, followed by Xiamen Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Chongqing Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank, and Ningbo Bank with growth rates ranging from 20.68% to 35.78% [3][9]. - Conversely, seven banks experienced declines, with Huaxia Bank at the bottom with a 9.82% drop, and Zhengzhou Bank, Beijing Bank, and China Everbright Bank all declining by over 5% [3][9]. Future Outlook - Multiple brokerage firms predict an improvement in revenue and profit growth for listed banks in 2026, with expected revenue growth rates of +2.5% and +3.6% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, and net profit growth rates of +1.9% and +2.6% [4][10]. - The improvement in revenue and profit growth is attributed to several factors, including a reduction in net interest margin pressure, a shift towards quality in credit issuance, and a stabilization in fee income growth [4][10]. Investment Strategy - In light of the different characteristics of new inflows, the equity market in 2025 is characterized by increased stable return strategy products, enhanced structural trends, and greater individual stock volatility. For 2026, it is recommended to prioritize stable stocks and adopt a bottom-fishing strategy, while also considering elastic stocks for rotation trading [6][12].

上证报中国证券网讯（记者 韩宋辉）12月23日，中国邮政集团有限公司召开党组会议，宣布了中共中 央组织部关于芦苇、刘建军的职务任免决定：芦苇任中国邮政集团有限公司副总经理、党组成员，免去 刘建军的中国邮政集团有限公司副总经理、党组成员职务。 根据中信银行此前公告，芦苇，男，1971年10月出生，拥有中国、中国香港、澳大利亚注册会计师资 格，获澳大利亚迪肯大学专业会计学硕士学位。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 韩宋辉）12月23日，中国邮政集团有限公司召开党组会议，宣布了中共中 央组织部关于芦苇、刘建军的职务任免决定：芦苇任中国邮政集团有限公司副总经理、党组成员，免去 刘建军的中国邮政集团有限公司副总经理、党组成员职务。 根据中信银行此前公告，芦苇，男，1971年10月出生，拥有中国、中国香港、澳大利亚注册会计师资 格，获澳大利亚迪肯大学专业会计学硕士学位。 芦苇拥有超过25年银行业从业经验。2025年2月至12月任中信银行党委副书记；2022年10月至2025年2月 历任中信信托党委书记、总经理、副董事长、董事长；2017年1月至2022年10月历任中信银行董事会秘 书、董事会秘书（业务总监级）、业务总监、党委委 ...

Core Viewpoint - Several brokerage firms, funds, and insurance asset management institutions are evaluating listed banks to optimize asset allocation and investment strategies for the coming year, with a focus on net interest margin performance [1] Group 1: Net Interest Margin Stability - Multiple banks have indicated that net interest margins have shown signs of stabilization in Q3, with a narrowing of the overall decline and an improvement in funding costs expected over the next three years [1] - Hangzhou Bank reported that its net interest margin remained stable at the end of Q3 compared to the end of Q2, with a marginal narrowing of the annual decline expected [1] - Suzhou Bank stated that its net interest margin has narrowed less than the industry average this year, supporting growth in net interest income [2] Group 2: Strategies for Managing Interest Margin - Banks are actively exploring ways to alleviate interest margin pressure through optimizing asset-liability structures and enhancing non-interest income [1] - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank noted that its Q3 interest margin stabilized due to a slowdown in the decline of asset yields and a faster decrease in liability interest rates [2] - Ouyang Rihui emphasized the importance of increasing the proportion of intermediary business income and investing in information technology to improve interest margin management [3] Group 3: Regional Banks' Performance - The Q3 reports of listed banks show structural differentiation in net interest margins, with some regional banks experiencing improvement [3] - A report indicated that net interest margins for city commercial banks and rural commercial banks continued to stabilize in the first three quarters of 2025, with a decrease in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities [4] - Some regional banks, such as Jiangyin Bank and Chongqing Bank, reported an increase in net interest margins at the end of Q3 compared to the end of Q2 [3][4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Some banks anticipate that the trend of improving interest margins will continue into 2026, with Qingnong Commercial Bank indicating that its interest margin is expected to remain stable [5] - Factors such as the repricing of existing loans and adjustments in deposit pricing strategies are expected to support net interest margins moving forward [5]

Core Viewpoint - The core issue in current financial reform is balancing the reduction of financing costs for the real economy with the sustainability of financial institutions, as highlighted by the People's Bank of China's report indicating that the phenomenon of corporate loan rates being lower than government bond rates is unsustainable [2] Group 1: Transmission Blockages - The transmission of monetary policy is hindered by several structural issues, including the distortion caused by inverted interest rates, where corporate loan rates are lower than government bond yields, undermining the risk pricing logic [3][4] - The narrowing of bank interest margins restricts banks' willingness and ability to transmit policy changes to the real economy, with the net interest margin for commercial banks at a historical low of 1.42% in Q3 2025, down 12 basis points from 1.54% in the same period of 2024 [5] - The stagnation of the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) adjustment, which has remained unchanged for six months, reflects constraints on further monetary easing and affects the efficiency of policy transmission [6] Group 2: Structural Issues - The asymmetry in the adjustment of deposit and loan rates creates a dilemma for banks, as rapid declines in loan rates are not matched by corresponding decreases in deposit costs, further squeezing interest margins [7] - There is a regional and structural disparity in interest rate transmission, where developed eastern regions and large state-owned enterprises can access financing at lower costs compared to small and private enterprises in central and western regions [8] Group 3: Optimization Paths - To address these transmission blockages, six key optimization paths are proposed, including enhancing the interest rate corridor to improve the effectiveness of policy rate transmission and deepening the marketization of deposit rates [9][10] - Building a modern financial institution system that encourages differentiated competition and focuses on core business areas is essential for improving the competitive environment in the financial sector [11][12] - The use of structural monetary policy tools should be strengthened to provide targeted support for key areas such as technology innovation and small enterprises, ensuring that policy benefits reach the intended recipients [13][14] - Improving the risk pricing mechanism is crucial to address issues of interest rate inversion and pricing disorder, which includes enhancing the credit system and reforming internal bank assessment mechanisms [14] - Establishing a coordinated financial regulatory mechanism is necessary to maintain a conducive environment for interest rate transmission and to prevent regulatory arbitrage [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential introduction of new real estate support policies in China, focusing on interest subsidies and reduced deed taxes, as a response to the current economic conditions affecting the banking sector and real estate market [1][27]. Group 1: Interest Rate and Banking Sector - Interest subsidies are proposed as a solution instead of direct interest rate cuts due to the narrowing interest margins of major banks, which are all below the survival line of 1.5% [6][27]. - The current interest margins for major banks are: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1.28%), China Construction Bank (1.36%), Bank of China (1.26%), and Agricultural Bank of China (1.3%) [6]. - The cost of interest subsidies must be sourced externally, likely from fiscal deficits, as direct funding from taxpayers or limited bond issuance imposes constraints [7][27]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The article emphasizes that the effectiveness of interest subsidies will primarily benefit first-time homebuyers by reducing their overall financial burden, thus supporting the real estate market [17][27]. - For investors, the article notes that real interest rates remain high due to negative inflation, making it less attractive for them to expand their asset portfolios [26][27]. - The real interest rate is calculated as nominal interest minus the inflation rate, with current conditions indicating a real interest rate of approximately 4%, the highest in two decades [26][27]. Group 3: Monitoring and Data Tracking - To assess the impact of potential interest subsidies, monitoring fiscal deficit sizes and the central bank's balance sheet is crucial, as these will indicate the actual scale of monetary easing [15][27]. - The article suggests that tracking these data points will provide insights into the future direction of the real estate market [15][27].

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，金融统计数据报告显示，10月份银行扩表节奏边际放缓，主 要是政府债发行靠前，实体信贷需求仍待提振;居民存款和非银存款转移持续活跃，年底银行将加大对 于流动性管理关注。三季度行业息差初步企稳，同时监管持续释放对息差及盈利空间的关注，未来政策 引导下定价要素有望改善，盈利水平保持稳定。板块投资方面，低估值隐含的价值空间依旧显著;年底 步入长线资金配置时段，有助催化银行股市场表现，建议机构积极布局，收获高确定性回报。 1)季初居民存款再向非银存款转移。10月居民存款/非银存款分别-1.34万亿元/+1.85万亿元(9月分别+2.96 万亿元/-1.06万亿元)，同比分别少增7700亿元/多增7700亿元。推测主要是季度末时点考核结束后，居民 资金重新流向理财等非银机构，同时股票市场活跃亦有影响。 2)公司存款增长较弱。10月非金融企业存款下降1.09万亿元，同比多减3553亿元，主要是信贷派生较 弱，叠加去年同期手工补息效应已经消退，基数逐步恢复正常。存款月度间结构变化明显加大，银行需 重视流动性波动及负债成本管理变化。 监管持续关注银行息差及金融机构盈利空间。 事项： 11 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [2] Core Viewpoints - The banking sector shows resilience better than expected, with a focus on strong fundamentals and quality dividends driving core profit improvement [6][15] - The annualized non-performing loan generation rate for listed banks is 0.55%, down 13 basis points from Q2 2025, indicating a marginal decline in non-performing loan generation across all types of banks [6] - The report suggests focusing on two main directions for investment: high-quality fundamentals that may recover valuation premiums as market risk appetite increases, and stable high-dividend stocks [6][15] Summary by Sections Operating Overview - In the first nine months of 2025, listed banks' revenue and net profit grew by 0.9% and 1.5% year-on-year, respectively, with revenue growth slightly declining due to bond market volatility affecting non-interest income [15][24] - The net interest margin for listed banks was 1.41%, remaining stable compared to the first half of 2025, driven by a continuous decline in funding costs [15][25] Profitability Breakdown - The net interest income of listed banks decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, but various types of banks showed improvement in net interest income, particularly city commercial banks [25] - Non-interest income from wealth management and commission fees increased by 4.6% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in capital markets [16][25] Asset and Liability Insights - Total assets and liabilities of listed banks grew by 9.3% year-on-year, maintaining steady expansion [17] - Loan growth remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, while deposits grew by 7.8%, indicating a slight decline in deposit growth rate [10][17] Risk Perspective - The overall non-performing loan ratio for listed banks was stable at 1.23%, with a provision coverage ratio of 236%, indicating solid asset quality [11][15] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in bank performance, with a focus on quality banks that exhibit strong resilience [6][15]

Group 1 - The report highlights a favorable policy environment expected to support the banking sector's performance recovery in 2026, with a focus on value investment fundamentals [1][15][20] - The current macro policy has shifted from "one-way benefits" to a "two-way balance," which is more conducive to stable banking operations, emphasizing the importance of maintaining bank interest margins while supporting the real economy [2][16][20] - The banking sector is anticipated to see a gradual recovery in performance, driven by stabilizing interest margins and improving core profitability, with quality regional banks showing stronger resilience [3][17][21] Group 2 - The report identifies insurance and industrial capital as significant future incremental funding sources, with insurance companies expected to increase equity market allocations, particularly in banks with stable earnings and high dividend returns [4][18] - Local state-owned enterprises are actively increasing investments in local banks, creating a win-win situation for both parties, while asset management companies are also increasing their stakes in several national banks [4][18] - The report suggests focusing on banks with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields, as the importance of stock selection has increased in the current volatile market environment [5][19] Group 3 - The report recommends specific banks for investment, including Chengdu Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Nanjing Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, China Construction Bank, Shanghai Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, indicating a positive outlook for these institutions [9][19] - The anticipated stabilization of interest margins and recovery of non-interest income is expected to support the overall performance of listed banks in 2026, with quality banks likely to outperform [3][17][21] - The report emphasizes the need for a strategic focus on banks with quality fundamentals and dividend advantages, as the market shifts from a defensive high-dividend strategy to one that values fundamental quality and profitability elasticity [5][19]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of listed banks in Q1-Q3 2025 slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue growth remaining stable and profit growth showing a slight increase [1][2] Performance Overview - Listed banks' revenue growth year-on-year is stable at 0.9%, while profit growth has increased to 1.6%. The weighted revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 0.9% and 1.6% respectively, with a slight slowdown in growth compared to H1 2025 [2][3] - Large banks showed a comprehensive performance turnaround, while the performance of small and medium-sized banks was mixed. Agricultural Bank, Bank of Communications, China Bank, and Industrial Bank performed better than expected, while China Construction Bank experienced a significant decline in quarterly interest margin [2][3] Driving Factors - Asset scale growth for listed banks in Q1-Q3 2025 was 9.3%, a slowdown of 0.3 percentage points compared to H1 2025. Loan growth decreased while financial investment growth increased [3] - The interest margin stabilized in Q3 2025, with a slight increase of 0.3 basis points to 1.37%. The asset yield decreased by 7 basis points to 2.81%, while the cost of liabilities decreased by 8 basis points to 1.56% [4] Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income for listed banks grew by 5.0% year-on-year, but the growth rate decreased by 2.0 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. Fee and commission income increased by 4.6% year-on-year, indicating some recovery in related business [5][6] - Bond trading income decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, with small and medium-sized banks experiencing a larger decline compared to state-owned banks [5][6] Asset Quality - The average non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.23%, while the average attention rate increased by 2 basis points to 1.69%. The retail sector continues to face pressure, particularly in small and micro loans [7][8] - The number of banks announcing mid-term dividends has increased, with some banks raising their mid-term dividend rates compared to the previous year [9] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Nanjing Bank, Shanghai Bank, Jiangsu Bank, Agricultural Bank, and Bank of Communications, with a focus on Qilu Bank and H-share large banks [9]

Core Insights - Suzhou Bank reported a year-on-year increase in net profit and operating income of 7.1% and 2.0% respectively for the first nine months of 2025, with growth rates improving compared to the first half of the year [1] - The bank's annualized ROE and ROA decreased by 0.83 percentage points and 0.06 percentage points to 12.03% and 0.84% respectively [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - As of September 2025, Suzhou Bank's total assets, loans, and deposits grew by 14.6%, 11.6%, and 12.9% respectively, showing slight improvements compared to June [2] - The bank's net interest margin for Q3 2025 was 1.34%, a slight increase from the first half of the year, primarily due to improved funding costs [3] - Interest income for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 8.9% year-on-year, benefiting from the stabilization of the net interest margin [3] Group 2: Asset Quality and Capital - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.83% as of Q3 2025, with a provision coverage ratio of 421%, indicating strong asset quality [4] - The capital adequacy ratio and core tier 1 capital ratio were reported at 13.57% and 9.79% respectively, showing slight declines from June [4] - The bank declared a mid-term dividend of 2.1 yuan per share, totaling 939 million yuan, which represents 32.36% of net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The bank maintains a profit forecast of 5.4 billion yuan, 5.8 billion yuan, and 6.2 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a consistent growth rate of approximately 7.1% [5] - The estimated book value per share (BVPS) for 2025 is projected at 10.60 yuan, with a target price of 10.07 yuan based on a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.95 [5]