行业报告 | 行业专题研究 银行 证券研究报告 9 月银行兑现浮盈压力预计不大 在今年三季度市场出现大幅调整的情况下，是否会加剧银行卖出老券调剂利润表的行为，对此 我们认为： 一、今年银行资产负债定价呈现"贷款利率平稳、存款成本改善"的趋势，NIM 压力得到有 效缓解，为实现全年盈利目标奠定了良好基础 得益于贷款供求矛盾改善，以及自律的执行，今年新发放企业贷款和房贷利率基本上已稳定在 3.2%和 3.1%，且监管当局更倾向于通过财政贴息等方式，来引导降低实体经济融资成本。 在此情况下，我们预计今年贷款利率降幅，可能是 2019 年 LPR 改革以来幅度最小的一年， 银行资产端定价有望得到明显稳固。 如果再考虑下半年依然有较大规模的高息定期存款到期，预计银行存款成本改善趋势得以进一 步延续。 基于存贷板块定价端的良好表现，尽管今年规模上可能有所"缩表"（增速下滑），但无论是银 行息差还是营收增长，压力都有望得到一定程度缓释。 二、今年银行金市交易盘与配置盘均面临一定压力 与存贷板块相比，今年银行大金市板块业绩完成情况，与去年"大牛市"相比，不可同日而语， 主要表现为两个方面： 对于交易盘而言，由于今年利率波动明 ...

为深入贯彻落实中国人民银行关于"提升金融服务透明度、切实降低企业综合融资成本"的工作要求，兴 业银行北京分行以科技型中小企业为试点突破口，于8月15日正式在全行范围内启动"明示企业贷款综合 融资成本"试点工作，通过创新服务模式、强化银企互信，切实提升金融服务实体经济质效。 下一步，北京分行将持续做好三方面工作：一是加强客户宣传引导，通过线上线下多渠道普及综合融资 成本透明化的重要意义，提升企业参与积极性；二是建立"收集-反馈-优化"闭环机制，及时汇总试点过 程中企业提出的意见建议，动态调整服务方案；三是定期总结试点经验，形成可复制、可推广的科技型 中小企业服务模板，逐步向全部融资企业延伸，切实履行金融机构"减费让利、惠企利民"的社会责任。 试点先行，科技企业率先受益 兴业银行北京分行相关负责人表示："明示综合融资成本是落实金融服务实体经济的务实举措。"未来， 北京分行将以此次试点为契机，通过透明化、精准化的服务，让企业"明明白白融资"，助力科技型中小 企业轻装上阵、专注发展，为稳增长、促创新贡献金融力量。 8月为确保试点工作扩面增效，分行已建立"专项培训+一对一辅导"机制：一方面，组织客户经理开展政 策解读与 ...

其中：企业存款 2,367,133 2,246,498 2,199,677 5.4% | 个人存款 | | | | | 1,327,338 | | | 1,287,180 | | | 1,207,618 | | 3.1% | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发放贷款和垫款本金总额 | | | | | | 3,408,498 | | | 3,374,103 | | | 3,407,509 | | 1.0% | | 其中：企业贷款 | | | | | 1,682,520 | | | 1,606,935 | | | 1,429,790 | | | 4.7% | | 一般企业贷款 | | | | | 1,538,649 | | | 1,421,206 | | | 1,214,991 | | | 8.3% | | 贴现 | | | | 143,871 | | | | 185,729 | | | 214,799 | | (22.5%) | | | 个人贷款 | | ...

Core Points - The People's Bank of China is initiating a pilot program to clarify the comprehensive financing costs for enterprises, aiming to reduce overall financing costs and enhance transparency [1][2] - The pilot program will start in five provinces and gradually expand nationwide, with a focus on providing a clear breakdown of both interest and non-interest costs associated with loans [1][2] - The initiative is part of a broader effort to lower financing costs for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and promote financial consumer rights [1][3] Financing Cost Breakdown - Comprehensive financing costs consist of interest costs and non-interest costs, with the latter including various fees such as collateral fees, guarantee fees, and intermediary service fees [2] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans is projected to be around 3.3% in the first half of 2025, a decrease of approximately 2.3 percentage points from the peak in late 2018 [2] Pilot Program Implementation - The pilot program has shown positive results, increasing transparency and allowing enterprises to understand their financing costs better [3][4] - The "Loan Clarity Sheet" details all costs associated with loans, including interest and various fees, thereby reducing information asymmetry [3][4] - The program has facilitated better financial planning and comparison for enterprises, leading to potential cost savings [4] Enhanced Trust and Efficiency - The initiative aims to improve the trust between banks and enterprises, fostering a more efficient financial service environment [4][5] - By providing clear cost information, enterprises can negotiate better financing terms and potentially save on costs [4][5] - The program has already helped some enterprises identify hidden costs in intermediary financing proposals, leading to more favorable loan arrangements [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking sector [13] Core Insights - The growth rate of commercial banks' assets rebounded to 8.9% year-on-year by the end of Q2, primarily due to a low base from the previous year [2][6] - The net profit growth of state-owned banks in the first half of the year was 1.1%, showing a recovery of 1 percentage point compared to Q1 [2][7] - The net interest margin (NIM) decline has narrowed, with an average NIM of 1.42% for commercial banks in the first half of the year [7][41] - Asset quality remains stable, with a general decline in non-performing loan (NPL) ratios and an increase in the provision coverage ratio [8][49] - Capital adequacy ratios have generally improved, supported by capital injections and a stabilizing bond market [8][51] Summary by Sections Asset Growth - By the end of Q2, the total assets of state-owned banks grew by 10.4% year-on-year, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3 percentage points [6][39] - The growth rate of city commercial banks also rebounded to over 10%, while joint-stock banks remained weak with a growth rate of 5.0% [6][39] Profitability - The net profit growth for state-owned banks was 1.1% year-on-year, while joint-stock banks experienced a decline of 2.0% [7][41] - The NIM for state-owned banks decreased by 2 basis points to 1.31%, with expectations of continued downward pressure on funding costs [7][41] Asset Quality - The NPL ratios for various banks have generally declined, with the provision coverage ratio for state-owned banks rising by 2 percentage points to 249% [8][49] - The net generation rate of NPLs is expected to remain stable, with no further reductions in provisions anticipated [8][49] Capital Adequacy - Capital adequacy ratios have improved across various banks, with state-owned banks seeing a 0.4 percentage point increase [51] - The improvement is attributed to capital injections and a stabilizing bond market, leading to an increase in unrealized gains on net assets [51] Monetary Policy - The average interest rates for newly issued loans reached historical lows, with mortgage rates at 3.06% and corporate loan rates at 3.22% [54][56] - The regulatory guidance emphasizes risk pricing principles, with expectations for a slowdown in the downward trend of new loan rates [54][56]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained a moderately loose monetary policy, supporting the real economy through high levels of social financing and broad money (M2) growth as of the end of July [1] Group 1: Credit Growth - In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, with a loan balance of 268.51 trillion yuan at the end of July, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.9% [2] - The fluctuations in credit data during June and July are attributed to financial institutions' half-year reporting and the settlement period for enterprises, as well as the significant impact of local government debt swaps on loan data [2][3] - The impact of debt resolution and risk mitigation factors on current loan growth exceeds 1 percentage point, with local government debt swaps affecting loans by approximately 2.6 trillion yuan since last November [3] Group 2: Loan Interest Rates - Loan interest rates have remained low, with new corporate loan rates around 3.2% and new personal housing loan rates at approximately 3.1%, both down by about 45 and 30 basis points year-on-year, respectively [4] - The decline in financing costs reflects adequate monetary and credit conditions, indicating that the real economy's financing needs are being met [4] Group 3: Monetary Aggregates - As of the end of July, M2 stood at 329.94 trillion yuan, growing by 8.8% year-on-year, while M1 was 111.06 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [7] - The narrowing gap between M1 and M2 indicates improved liquidity and efficiency in fund circulation, aligning with the recovery of economic activities [7] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The cumulative social financing scale for the first seven months reached 23.99 trillion yuan, exceeding the previous year's figure by 5.12 trillion yuan, with a total stock of 431.26 trillion yuan at the end of July, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% [7] - The macroeconomic indicators have performed better than expected in the first half of the year, supporting the reasonable growth of monetary credit and meeting the effective financing needs of the real economy [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of monetary policy and fiscal measures on credit growth in China, highlighting the effects of debt replacement, risk mitigation, and the reduction of "involution" in the financial sector on loan dynamics and overall economic recovery [1][4]. Group 1: Credit Growth and Monetary Policy - As of the end of July, the balance of RMB loans grew by 6.9% year-on-year, down from 7.1% the previous month, influenced by seasonal factors and external elements such as local government debt management and financial institution reforms [2][3]. - The total social financing scale increased by 23.99 trillion yuan in the first seven months, with a year-on-year increase of 5.12 trillion yuan, indicating a supportive monetary policy environment [1][8]. - The difference in growth rates between narrow money supply (M1) and broad money supply (M2) narrowed significantly, reflecting improved liquidity and market confidence due to effective policies [1][2]. Group 2: Debt Replacement and Risk Mitigation - The ongoing debt replacement policy is expected to lower loan growth temporarily, as high-interest short-term debts are converted into low-interest long-term debts, impacting the overall loan growth rate [2][3]. - The estimated impact of debt replacement and risk mitigation measures on current loan growth exceeds 1 percentage point, indicating significant external influences on credit dynamics [2][3]. Group 3: Credit Structure Optimization - The loan growth in sectors such as technology, green finance, and small and micro enterprises has outpaced overall loan growth, suggesting a shift towards more productive credit allocation [6]. - As of the end of July, the balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 35.05 trillion yuan, growing by 11.8% year-on-year, indicating a strong focus on supporting small businesses [6]. - The average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans have decreased significantly, reflecting a more favorable lending environment for borrowers [6]. Group 4: Government Bond Financing - The net financing of government bonds has shown a significant increase, with a cumulative net financing of 4.32 trillion yuan year-on-year, supporting the overall social financing scale [8]. - The issuance of new special bonds exceeded 610 billion yuan in the past month, marking a record high for the year and indicating a proactive fiscal policy stance [8][9]. - The shift towards direct financing, including government and corporate bonds, is becoming more pronounced, providing diverse financing options for enterprises [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Supreme People's Court has issued guidelines to support the development of the private economy in China, focusing on legal measures to address financing challenges faced by private enterprises [1] Group 1: Financial Institution Regulations - The guidelines require financial institutions to not unilaterally change loan conditions, stop lending, or recall loans, thereby protecting the rights of private economic entities [2] - These measures are seen as a way to create a fairer and more predictable financing environment, ensuring the continuity of private enterprises' operations and stabilizing their confidence [2][3] - Financial institutions must clearly define the conditions under which loan terms can be changed, ensuring transparency and preventing arbitrary actions [3] Group 2: Regulation of Informal Lending - The guidelines aim to regulate illegal lending practices such as "usury" and "head-cutting interest," which have harmed private enterprises and created significant financing challenges [4][5] - The regulation of informal lending is crucial for maintaining market order and improving the business environment, as many private enterprises have been adversely affected by chaotic lending practices [4][5] Group 3: Expanding Financing Channels - The guidelines support the use of non-typical guarantees in financing, which is essential for small and medium-sized enterprises that often lack acceptable collateral [6] - Recognizing the legal validity of non-typical guarantees is seen as a key innovation to unlock financing for private enterprises, enhancing their chances of securing loans [6] - This shift in financing logic from "collateral-based" to "value chain-based" is expected to activate dormant assets and create a more dynamic financial environment for the private economy [6]

为促进企业贷款综合融资成本更加公开透明，保障企业知情权，进一步推动降低综合融资成本。中国人 民银行福建省分行启动明示企业贷款综合融资成本工作，长乐农商银行积极响应，推动企业贷款综合融 资成本更加公开透明，全方位引导降低企业贷款综合融资成本。 企业贷款综合融资成本包含哪些？ 在贷款前，银行会和企业一起填写《企业贷款综合融资成本清单》(贷款明白纸)，详细列出企业需承担 的贷款利息和各项非利息支出，将散落的各项成本费用归集到一起，并计算出每项费用的年化费率，让 企业看得明明白白。 什么是"贷款明白纸"？ "贷款明白纸"是企业在办理贷款过程中，与银行共同填写的一份清单，即《企业贷款综合融资成本清 单》。清单内不仅列明贷款利息，更清楚地列明担保费、保险费、评估费、质押监管费、抵质押登记 费、公证费等涉及到的各项非利息费用，让企业对各项融资费用做到心中有数。 企业贷款综合融资成本一般包括利息成本和非利息成本两部分，其中利息成本已在贷款合同或协议文本 中明示，非利息成本则主要包括抵押担保费、质押监管费、过桥或应急转贷费、中介服务费，以及银团 贷款费、贸易融资手续费等，其中涉及到的收费主体不止银行，还有担保公司、中介公司、第 ...

Core Insights - The average weighted interest rate for new corporate loans in Guizhou Province is approximately 3.65%, a decrease of 45 basis points year-on-year [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) Guizhou branch is implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to create a favorable financial environment for high-quality economic development [1] - The PBOC has reduced the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, releasing approximately 2.02 billion yuan in long-term available funds [1] - The average weighted interest rate for new personal housing loans is about 3.25%, down 53 basis points year-on-year [1] - A total of 154.76 billion yuan has been injected into the province through monetary policy tools by the end of June [2] Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC is utilizing various monetary policy tools to support economic growth, focusing on sectors such as technological innovation, consumption expansion, and support for small and micro enterprises [1] - Funds amounting to 79.08 billion yuan have been allocated through agricultural and small enterprise re-loans and rediscounts [2] - An additional 75.68 billion yuan has been directed towards technological innovation, technical transformation, carbon reduction support tools, and supplementary mortgage loans [2]