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城建发展(600266):加速存量去化,存货减值抵消股票收益
HTSC· 2025-10-31 06:40
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 7.42 [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 19.31 billion for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 760 million, up 40% year-on-year. Despite significant stock gains in Q3, inventory impairment offset these gains, primarily due to price adjustments on long-cycle projects, which also led to positive sales growth in Q3 [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from improved sales and performance recognition in 2025, alongside favorable real estate policies in key cities and ongoing urban renewal projects [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, the company achieved a net profit of RMB 160 million, a decrease of 77% year-on-year, mainly due to an inventory impairment of RMB 860 million that offset stock gains from investments in Guoxin Securities and Nanwei Medical, which saw price increases of 17% and 49%, respectively [2][3]. - Cumulatively, for the first three quarters, the company’s net profit grew significantly due to a 44% increase in completed real estate area and improved stock gains, totaling RMB 1.01 billion, an increase of RMB 350 million year-on-year [3]. Sales and Land Acquisition - The company’s sales amount for the first three quarters decreased by 8% to RMB 14.1 billion, but Q3 saw a 3% increase in sales amount and a 103% increase in sales area, attributed to inventory clearance and price adjustments [4]. - The company acquired two land parcels in Beijing for a total price of RMB 5.3 billion, with a land acquisition intensity of 38% and an equity ratio of 40%. A new acquisition in Changping District for RMB 2.8 billion further expands its land reserves [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for the company remains at RMB 835 million, RMB 840 million, and RMB 857 million for 2025-2027, respectively. The estimated BPS for 2026 is RMB 11.42. The average P/B ratio for comparable companies is 0.74, while the company’s reasonable P/B is set at 0.65, maintaining the target price of RMB 7.42 [5].