第一：巴菲特卸任前最后一份年报，现金储备再创新高 伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司发布3季报，现金储备增至创纪录的3816亿美元，超越一季度的3477亿美元。 巴菲特5月份宣布，将在今年年末卸任CRO，结束70年的投资传奇经历。自从那之后，伯克希尔股价下跌了10%。 来自其全资业务（包括保险与铁路等）的经营利润（剔除部分投资结果）在第三季度同比跃升34%，至134.85亿美 元。 不过细看下，好像多地的房价才开始放松。以汕头为例，今年是我感受降幅最大的一年。 第三：事关黄金穗收，两部门重磅发布 昨天，两大部门发布关于黄金穗收的信息，明确2027年底志气啊，通过交易所交易标准黄金金，卖出方会员单位或 客户销售标准黄金时，免征增值税。 通过非交易所渠道如银行柜台、金店等购买投资性金条和黄金制品的卖方仍需缴纳增值穗。 也就是说，平时购买黄金的渠道，会比交易所的稍微贵点，里面含穗了。 第三季度伯克希尔录得净利润307.96亿美元，上年同期净利润为262.51亿美元。 这点跟我们合伙企业类似，全资经营的公司算经营收入，资本市场操作的利润算投资利润。 第二：地产利好持续不断 截至10月28日，今年有超200个省市县出台政策超510条 ...

Q3 存货减值抵消股票收益 Q3 公司直接/间接持有的国信证券/南微医学股价分别上涨 17%/49%，推动 公司实现公允价值变动收益和投资收益共 8.2 亿元。但与此同时，公司对北 京合院、龙樾合玺、府前龙樾、北京国际社区等销售周期较长的项目进行了 价格调整，导致计提 8.6 亿元存货减值，抵消了股票收益。最终，Q3 公司 实现归母净利润 1.6 亿元，同比-77%，主要因为 24Q3 股票收益同样较高 （公允价值变动收益和投资收益共 9.0 亿元）、同时并没有计提存货减值。 证券研究报告 城建发展 (600266 CH) 加速存量去化,存货减值抵消股票收益 | 华泰研究 | | | 季报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 10 月 | 31 日│中国内地 | 房地产开发 | 目标价(人民币): | 7.42 | 公司 10 月 30 日发布三季报，1-3Q 实现营收 193.1 亿元，同比+64%；归 母净利润 7.6 亿元，同比+40%。Q3 公司实现较大规模的股票收益，但被存 货减值所抵消，主要因为 ...

消息面上，据证券时报报道，8月份，国务院第九次全体会议强调"采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回 稳态势"，而"北上深"也相继出台楼市新政，多维度惠及购房者。《人民财讯》记者独家获悉，目前有 多个新一线城市正研究房地产市场最新政策举措，进一步激发改善性住房需求，针对性加大购房支持， 相关举措后续将陆续出台。 内房股盘中集体拉升，截至发稿，龙湖集团(00960)涨6.14%，报12.1港元；万科企业(02202)涨4.09%， 报5.6港元；碧桂园(02007)涨5.26%，报0.6港元；融创中国(01918)涨3.16%，报1.63港元。 国金证券此前发布研报称，近期北上深等一线城市已落地优化限购政策，叠加需求旺季带动基本面有望 修复。此外8月地产数据显示当前仍然需要更多的政策出台以带动地产实现止跌回稳，政策预期持续处 于加码期。当前地产板块估值偏低，建议逢低配置地产股。 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Finance Bureau announced a policy adjustment on September 19, allowing non-local homebuyers to be exempt from property tax for newly purchased second homes if the average per capita housing area does not exceed 60 square meters [1] - This marks the first substantial optimization of the property tax pilot program since its inception in 2011, aimed at reducing disparities between local and non-local residents and encouraging talent to live and work in Shanghai [1] - The policy is expected to positively impact non-local families looking to purchase multiple homes, potentially boosting housing demand and transaction recovery [1] Group 2 - Recent policy optimizations in first-tier cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, combined with seasonal demand, are anticipated to restore the real estate market's fundamentals [2] - Current real estate sector valuations are considered low, suggesting a favorable environment for investors to accumulate real estate stocks [2] - Developers focusing on core first and second-tier cities with a strong emphasis on improvement products and sustained land acquisition capabilities are recommended as potential beneficiaries of upcoming policy benefits [2]

报告导读： 地产政策优化，楼市景气边际改善；耐用品增长乏力，受高基数影响， 8 月 乘用车零售增速继续放缓，开学周服务景气有所回落；降息预期提升，金价大幅上涨。 地产销售边际改善，耐用品增长乏力。 上周（ 09.01-09.07 ）中观景气表现分化，值得关注： 1 ）北上深等多地优化地产政策后，国内新房销售同比增速 延续改善，一线城市地产销售降幅继续收窄，楼市景气边际改善；但楼市的改善对地产开工影响微弱，且基建需求仍偏弱，建筑资源品需求仍在磨底，受益于 环保限产的钢铁价格小幅上涨，水泥价格仍明显下滑。 2 ）乘用车零售销量延续增长，但 24 年同期高基数影响下，增速明显放缓，耐用品景气持续性有待 观察；开学周，服务消费景气继续回落，电影票房环比大幅下滑，客运需求环比下降，但同比仍偏强。 3 ）汽车钢胎、 PTA/ 涤纶、钢厂高炉开工率环比下 降，或反映反内卷推行提高企业限产意愿，但工业品价格端仍未出现明显改善信号；受益于美联储降息预期提升，金价大幅上涨。 下游消费：一线城市地产销售降幅收窄，乘用车零售增速回落。 1 ）地产： 30 大中城市商品房成交面积同比 +4.4% 。其中一线 / 二线 / 三线城市商品 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for companies such as Beixin Building Materials and China Jushi, while recommending "Overweight" for Weixing New Materials [9][10]. Core Insights - The construction materials sector experienced a decline of 2.02% from August 25 to August 29, 2025, with cement down 3.21% and glass manufacturing down 2.52%. However, fiberglass manufacturing saw an increase of 4.90% [1][12]. - Recent policy adjustments in Shanghai aim to optimize the real estate market, including reducing housing purchase limits and improving housing credit policies, which may positively impact the construction materials sector [2][3]. - The report highlights a potential recovery in municipal engineering projects due to increased local government bond issuance, which rose by 3.2% month-on-month and 70.7% year-on-year in July 2025 [2][3]. Cement Industry Summary - As of August 29, 2025, the national cement price index was 337.65 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.12% from the previous week. Cement output was 2.56 million tons, down 4.53% week-on-week [3][17]. - The cement industry is currently facing a demand bottoming out, with production cutbacks being implemented to stabilize prices around the breakeven point [2][3]. Glass Industry Summary - The average price of float glass was 1189.67 CNY/ton, down 1.34% from the previous week, with inventory levels remaining high despite some demand recovery [6][7]. - The report notes that the supply-demand imbalance in the float glass market is expected to ease due to self-regulated production cuts by photovoltaic glass manufacturers [2][6]. Fiberglass Industry Summary - The fiberglass market is showing signs of recovery, with prices stabilizing after a price war. Demand from the wind power sector is expected to increase significantly in 2025 [2][7]. - The report emphasizes structural opportunities in the fiberglass sector, particularly with the anticipated growth in wind power installations [2][7]. Consumer Building Materials Summary - Consumer building materials are benefiting from improved second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus policies, with companies like Beixin Building Materials and Weixing New Materials being highlighted for their growth potential [2][6]. - The report indicates a weak recovery in consumer building materials demand, influenced by seasonal factors and price sensitivity [6][7]. Carbon Fiber Industry Summary - The carbon fiber market is experiencing stable prices, with production levels maintaining at 1852 tons and an operating rate of 61.52% [8]. - The report notes that downstream demand is slowly recovering, with growth expected in sectors such as wind energy and hydrogen storage [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][35]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from an increase in demand for kitchen appliances, particularly due to government subsidies and a shift towards renovation and replacement needs in the housing market [6][25][26]. - The company has a strong market position in the kitchen appliance sector, with leading market shares in key product categories such as range hoods and gas stoves [6][7][25]. - Financial forecasts indicate a gradual recovery in revenue and profit margins, with projected net profits of 1.61 billion, 1.74 billion, and 1.86 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [36][35]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, with net profit at 710 million yuan, down 6.3% [6][17]. - The revenue breakdown shows that range hoods and gas stoves accounted for 73% of total revenue, with respective revenues of 2.21 billion and 1.16 billion yuan [7][17]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 50.4% in the first half of 2025, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [17]. Market Dynamics - The kitchen appliance market is experiencing a recovery driven by government subsidies, with retail sales of range hoods and gas stoves increasing by 11.8% and 10.1% respectively in the first half of 2025 [25][26]. - The report highlights a shift in demand from new housing to renovation and replacement, as the proportion of renovation projects increases [6][25]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, particularly in online sales channels, leading to price reductions in key product categories [25][26]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 11.58 billion, 12.11 billion, and 12.70 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits projected to grow steadily [36][35]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong cash position, with cash and cash equivalents amounting to 8.24 billion yuan, representing 42% of its market capitalization [6][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][35]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from an increase in demand for kitchen appliances, particularly due to government subsidies and a shift towards renovation and replacement needs in the housing market [6][25][26]. - The company holds a leading position in the kitchen appliance market, with significant market shares in both offline and online retail channels [7][8]. - The financial outlook shows a gradual recovery in revenue and profit margins, with projected earnings per share (EPS) increasing from 1.67 yuan in 2024 to 1.97 yuan in 2027 [36][35]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024A: 11,213 million yuan - 2025E: 11,578 million yuan - 2026E: 12,113 million yuan - 2027E: 12,702 million yuan - Revenue growth rates are projected to be modest, ranging from 0.1% in 2024 to 4.9% in 2027 [36]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024A: 1,577 million yuan - 2025E: 1,607 million yuan - 2026E: 1,740 million yuan - 2027E: 1,861 million yuan - The net profit growth rate is expected to recover from a decline of -9.0% in 2024 to a growth of 6.9% in 2027 [36]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 1.67 yuan - 2025E: 1.70 yuan - 2026E: 1.84 yuan - 2027E: 1.97 yuan - Corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to decrease from 11.86 in 2024 to 10.05 in 2027 [36]. Market Position and Trends - The company has maintained its leading market share in the kitchen appliance sector, with offline retail market shares of 31.2% for range hoods and 31.4% for gas stoves in the first half of 2025 [6][7]. - The overall kitchen appliance market is showing signs of recovery, driven by government subsidies and a shift in consumer demand towards more affordable products [25][26]. - The company is adapting to market changes by introducing new product lines to meet the rising demand for cost-effective kitchen appliances [6][25].