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吉利汽车(00175):预计营销改革、新车上市将促进销量市占率提升
Orient Securities· 2025-08-03 12:08
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [4][7] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from marketing reforms and new vehicle launches, which will enhance sales market share [2][11] - The forecasted EPS for 2025-2027 is 1.50, 1.76, and 2.13 RMB respectively, with a target price set at 22.50 RMB or 24.70 HKD [4][7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are 179,204 million, 240,194 million, 319,444 million, 381,363 million, and 442,685 million RMB, reflecting growth rates of 21.1%, 34.0%, 33.0%, 19.4%, and 16.1% respectively [6][12] - Operating profit is expected to grow from 3,806 million RMB in 2023A to 20,314 million RMB in 2027E, with a significant increase of 100.8% in 2024A [6][12] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 5,308 million RMB in 2023A, increasing to 21,451 million RMB by 2027E, with a notable growth of 213.3% in 2024A [6][12] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 15.3% in 2023A to 16.7% in 2027E, while the net margin is projected to stabilize around 4.7% to 4.8% during the same period [6][12] Market Position and Sales Performance - In July, Geely's total sales reached 237,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 57.7%, with new energy vehicle sales growing by 120.4% [11] - The company's market share is expected to continue rising, with a reported market share of approximately 11% in the first half of 2025, an increase of nearly 3 percentage points year-on-year [11] - The Galaxy series is showing strong sales performance, with July sales of 95,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 469.0% [11]