关注 「电动车公社」 和我们一起重新思考汽车 在一票新车助推下，今年的 大三排 SUV ， 真是成功破圈了。 前有乐道 L90 月交付破万、问界 M8 月交付连续破 2 万、吉利银河 24 小时大定 2.3 万，后有蔚来 ES8 一夜之间卖完今年 4 万台规划产能，让人不禁有些感 慨： 而就在前段时间，极氪的旗舰 SUV ——极氪 9X 也正式上市了。 相比于友商主要在价格上做文章，极氪 9X 似乎采取了 高举高打 的方式，直接给出了 46.59-59.99 万元的高定价。 即便如此，极氪 9X 依然拿到了上市 13 分钟，大定突破 1 万台的成绩单；就连顶配三电机车型锁单的占比，也高达 70% 。 刚巧，社长前段时间试到了 极氪 9X 的 Hyper 版。 今天，我们将会分成设计、技术和体验这三个部分，和大家来简单聊一聊。 01. 不像劳斯像宾利？ 在极氪 9X 造型发布之前，就有网友因为前脸的超大镀铬格栅实在太过显眼，给极氪 9X 起了个外号，叫杭州湾库里南 。 但实话说，极氪 9X 在外观的 原创度还是挺高的， 和库里南不怎么沾边。 我们就拿侧面这个看起来最容易"抄"的地方来说，会发现几点不一样—— | ...

格隆汇10月8日｜东方证券发布研报称，吉利汽车9月销量创历史新高，市占率有望继续提升。吉利银河 销量同比高增长，新车型上市有望持续提振销量。极氪9X正式上市，拟回购股份彰显公司发展信心。 该行预测公司2025-2027年EPS分别为1.49、1.75、2.12元，维持可比公司25年PE平均估值15倍，目标价 24.48港元，维持买入评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the booming market for large six-seat SUVs in China, driven by consumer demand and strategic product launches from various automakers, indicating a significant growth phase for this segment [2][4][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The large six-seat SUV segment is experiencing rapid growth, transitioning from early to mid-stage development, and is considered a "hot market" with strong consumer demand [8][9]. - Sales data shows that the cumulative delivery of the AITO M8 has surpassed 100,000 units since its launch, with monthly sales exceeding 20,000 units for three consecutive months [5]. - The overall market for mainstream six-seat SUVs is projected to reach approximately 1 million units in 2025, up from 821,255 units in 2024 [6]. Group 2: Consumer Insights - Consumer interest in large six-seat SUVs is driven by family travel needs, with many buyers prioritizing space and comfort for family outings [10][12]. - The article notes that consumers are increasingly faced with choices among various models, leading to confusion over which features to prioritize, such as space versus price [14]. - The demand for large six-seat SUVs is expected to continue growing due to demographic changes and evolving family structures in China [9][19]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Automakers are intensifying competition in the large six-seat SUV market, with multiple brands launching new models to capture market share [7][19]. - The article provides a detailed comparison of various models, highlighting differences in specifications, pricing, and unique selling points, which are crucial for consumer decision-making [13][15]. - Promotional strategies, such as tax subsidies and competitive pricing, are being employed by brands like NIO and Zeekr to attract buyers [16][18]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts predict that the demand for large six-seat SUVs will continue to expand until around 2036, driven by population growth and changing family dynamics [19]. - However, the increasing number of models may lead to market saturation and potential oversupply, raising concerns about the sustainability of this growth [19].

Core Insights - The electric vehicle market is experiencing significant shifts, with previously strong players like Li Auto facing declines while new entrants like Leap Motor are gaining traction [2][45][52]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In December of the previous year, Li Auto achieved impressive sales of 58,000 units, leading the new energy vehicle sector [1]. - However, by August 2025, Li Auto's sales plummeted to 28,529 units, placing it at the bottom of the "Wei Xiaoli" rankings [2]. - The overall market is witnessing a rapid transformation, with even established players like BYD struggling to maintain their positions [3]. Group 2: Sales Performance - In August, 14 mainstream automakers reported sales, with a median sales figure of 40,486 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4,717 units [5]. - BYD led the market with 371,501 units sold in August, while other traditional automakers like Geely and SAIC have stabilized in the second tier, each achieving monthly sales of over 100,000 units [7][8]. - New entrants and weaker performers are grouped in the third tier, with average sales around 30,000 units, facing challenges in surpassing the 50,000-unit mark [9]. Group 3: Brand Performance - BYD's Ocean and Dynasty series remain strong, while Geely's Galaxy brand has emerged as a significant player, achieving over 100,000 units in sales for three consecutive months [11][12]. - The number of brands achieving monthly sales exceeding 10,000 has increased, indicating a competitive landscape [12]. - Notably, NIO's new model, the ES8, has seen a price reduction, enhancing its market appeal [27]. Group 4: New Product Launches - August was marked by numerous new vehicle launches, with companies like Huawei and SAIC introducing new models that quickly garnered significant pre-orders [23][24]. - Li Auto launched its second pure electric model, the i8, but faced backlash due to safety concerns, leading to price adjustments shortly after its release [25][52]. - The overall trend indicates that automakers are preparing for a strong end-of-year push with new product offerings [35]. Group 5: International Expansion - Companies are increasingly focusing on international markets, with BYD exporting vehicles to Europe and establishing assembly plants in Malaysia [37][42]. - NIO plans to enter new markets in Singapore, Uzbekistan, and Costa Rica by 2025-2026, marking its first foray into right-hand drive vehicles [38]. - Chery has shown strong performance in overseas markets, delivering 129,400 units in August alone [41]. Group 6: Competitive Landscape - The competition among new energy vehicle manufacturers is intensifying, with Leap Motor surpassing Li Auto in sales for five consecutive months [47]. - NIO has also seen a resurgence in sales, with its model, the Lido, achieving significant growth [49]. - Conversely, Li Auto is currently facing challenges, with its sales declining and a need to adjust its targets [19][52]. Group 7: Challenges for Leading Brands - BYD's sales remain robust at 371,500 units, but its competitive edge is being eroded by other automakers [55]. - Geely has established itself as a strong contender in the second position, with its Galaxy brand showing consistent sales growth [61][62]. - Aion, once a strong performer, is now struggling with brand perception and sales stagnation, indicating a need for strategic adjustments [72][75].

Core Insights - The 2025 Qilu Autumn Auto Show has become a major platform for consumers to take advantage of various discounts and subsidies, with nearly a hundred car brands and thousands of models present [1][5] - Government subsidies at both national and local levels are playing a crucial role in stimulating the automotive market, with significant financial incentives for consumers [2][4][5] Government Subsidies - National subsidies include a 20,000 yuan incentive for trading in old fuel vehicles for new energy vehicles and a 15,000 yuan incentive for trading in for another fuel vehicle [2] - The exemption of vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2025, allows for a maximum tax exemption of 30,000 yuan per vehicle [2] - Local initiatives, such as those from Shandong Province and Jinan City, provide additional financial support, with Jinan offering a total of 12 million yuan in subsidies for the second half of 2025 [4][5] Consumer Benefits - The combination of national and local subsidies significantly reduces the overall cost of purchasing vehicles, encouraging consumers to upgrade their old cars [5][9] - The automotive market has seen a double-digit growth in production and sales, with production reaching 18.24 million units and sales at 18.27 million units in the first seven months of 2025, driven by these policies [9] Manufacturer Promotions - Many manufacturers are offering substantial discounts, with some vehicles being sold at prices close to their cost to attract buyers during the peak sales season [7][9] - Examples of discounts include the Starway ES with a starting price of 131,800 yuan after discounts, and the Buick Regal at a starting price of 106,900 yuan [7][9] Financing and Insurance Offers - The auto show features attractive financing options, including zero down payment and low-interest loans, making it easier for consumers to purchase vehicles [10][11] - Insurance incentives, such as complimentary first-year insurance, are also being offered to further entice buyers [11] Consumer Guidance - Consumers are advised to understand the rules regarding the stacking of various subsidies and to be aware of the time limits for applying for these benefits [12][13] - It is recommended that consumers document the condition of their trade-in vehicles to avoid undervaluation during the appraisal process [12][13]

Group 1 - In August, Geely's total sales reached 250,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 38.0% and a month-on-month increase of 5.2% [1] - New energy vehicle sales for Geely in August were 147,300 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 95.2% and a month-on-month increase of 13.2% [1] - Geely's total sales from January to August amounted to 1,897,100 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47.3%, achieving 63.2% of the annual target of 3 million units by the end of August [1] Group 2 - In August, Geely's brand sales were 205,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 45.9% and a month-on-month increase of 6.1% [1] - The Geely Galaxy model sold 110,700 units in August, marking a year-on-year increase of 172.6% and a month-on-month increase of 16.4% [1] - The Geely Galaxy M9, a new large six-seat SUV, has begun pre-sales with a competitive price range of 193,800 to 258,800 yuan, achieving over 40,000 orders within 24 hours [1] Group 3 - Zeekr brand sales in August were 17,600 units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2% but a month-on-month increase of 3.8% [2] - Lynk & Co brand sales in August reached 27,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 20.8% [2] - The Zeekr 9X has officially started pre-sales with a price range of 479,900 to 569,900 yuan, receiving over 42,000 orders within the first hour, indicating strong consumer demand for higher-end versions [2] Group 4 - The forecast for EPS from 2025 to 2027 is 1.49, 1.75, and 2.12 yuan respectively, maintaining a target price of 22.35 yuan [3] - The average PE valuation for comparable companies in 2025 is set at 15 times [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [4][7]. Core Views - Geely's sales continue to improve, with a projected increase in market share [2]. - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.49, 1.75, and 2.12 RMB respectively, while maintaining a target price of 22.35 RMB, equivalent to 24.54 HKD [4]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 179,204 million RMB - 2024A: 240,194 million RMB - 2025E: 319,444 million RMB (33.0% YoY growth) - 2026E: 381,363 million RMB (19.4% YoY growth) - 2027E: 442,685 million RMB (16.1% YoY growth) [6]. - **Operating Profit**: - 2023A: 3,806 million RMB - 2024A: 7,644 million RMB (100.8% YoY growth) - 2025E: 14,116 million RMB (84.7% YoY growth) - 2026E: 16,739 million RMB (18.6% YoY growth) - 2027E: 20,314 million RMB (21.4% YoY growth) [6]. - **Net Profit**: - 2023A: 5,308 million RMB - 2024A: 16,632 million RMB (213.3% YoY growth) - 2025E: 15,121 million RMB (-9.1% YoY decline) - 2026E: 17,735 million RMB (17.3% YoY growth) - 2027E: 21,451 million RMB (21.0% YoY growth) [6]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.53 RMB - 2024A: 1.65 RMB - 2025E: 1.49 RMB - 2026E: 1.75 RMB - 2027E: 2.12 RMB [6]. - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross Margin: Expected to increase from 15.3% in 2023A to 16.7% in 2027E - Net Margin: Expected to improve from 3.0% in 2023A to 4.8% in 2027E - Return on Equity (ROE): Expected to rise from 6.6% in 2023A to 14.6% in 2027E [6]. Sales Performance Summary - In August, Geely's total sales reached 250,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 38.0% and a month-on-month increase of 5.2% [11]. - New energy vehicle sales in August were 147,300 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 95.2% [11]. - The company has achieved 63.2% of its annual sales target of 3 million units by the end of August [11]. Product Development and Market Position - The Galaxy brand's sales are on the rise, with significant contributions from new product launches [11]. - The Galaxy A7 and Galaxy M9 are expected to enhance market competitiveness, with pre-sales showing strong demand [11]. - Zeekr 9X has also shown promising pre-sale figures, indicating strong consumer interest in high-end models [11].

Core Insights - The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.3 million units in August, marking a year-on-year increase of 24% and a month-on-month increase of 10% [1] - Cumulative wholesale sales from January to August totaled 8.93 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34% [1] - Major automakers are expected to launch several new models in Q3 and Q4 of 2025, which will enhance market supply [1][4] Group 1: Market Performance - BYD maintained its leading position with sales of 373,600 units in August, nearly matching last year's performance, with pure electric vehicle sales exceeding 199,600 units [2] - Geely's new energy vehicle sales reached 147,300 units, a 38% year-on-year increase, with the Galaxy model achieving a record high of 110,600 units, up 173% [2] - SAIC Group reported new energy vehicle sales of 129,800 units, a 49.89% increase year-on-year, with its Zhiji brand also showing strong performance [2] Group 2: New Entrants and Emerging Brands - Leap Motor achieved a record high delivery of 57,100 units, becoming a standout among new entrants [3] - Xiaopeng Motors and NIO delivered 37,700 and 31,300 units respectively, both setting historical highs [3] - Xiaomi Auto delivered over 30,000 units, leveraging brand influence and supply chain capabilities to establish a market presence [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" sales season is expected to boost new energy vehicle sales, with various automakers introducing promotional policies [1][4] - The retail market for narrow passenger vehicles in August was approximately 1.94 million units, with new energy vehicles expected to account for 1.1 million units, achieving a penetration rate of about 56.7% [4] - The market is stabilizing with the introduction of new subsidy policies and the resumption of trade-in programs, enhancing consumer purchasing potential [4]

Group 1: Tesla Model Y L Launch - Tesla officially announced the first batch delivery of Model Y L on September 2, with a price of 339,000 yuan, positioning it as a luxury six-seat pure electric SUV [1] - The Model Y L features an 82 kWh battery, accelerates from 0 to 100 km/h in 4.5 seconds, and has a range of 751 km (CLTC) [1] - The swift delivery of Model Y L within a month of its launch is expected to further solidify Tesla's leadership position in the competitive large six-seat SUV market [1] Group 2: Chery and BYD August Sales Data - Chery Group reported sales of 242,736 vehicles in August, with exports reaching 129,472 units, a year-on-year increase of 32.3%, setting a new monthly export record [2] - BYD achieved a monthly sales record of 373,626 vehicles in August, with 371,501 units being passenger cars, and overseas sales of passenger cars and pickups totaling 80,464 units, a year-on-year increase of 146.4% [2] - The strong sales performance of both companies reflects the robust vitality of the Chinese automotive market and may enhance recognition of Chinese manufacturing [2] Group 3: Geely's New Model Project in Wuhan - Geely Holding Group signed a cooperation agreement with Wuhan Economic Development Zone on September 1 to expand investment and produce multiple new models, including the Geely Galaxy [3] - This project marks Geely's first passenger vehicle production in Hubei, indicating the company's confidence in future market positioning [3] Group 4: Zotye Auto's Operational Challenges - Zotye Auto announced that its subsidiary's T300 model production line and related equipment have been subject to judicial auction, with no successful bids in the first two rounds [4] - The company stated it no longer meets the conditions for resuming production of the T300 model this year, highlighting ongoing uncertainties regarding its operational capabilities [4] - This situation may weaken investor confidence in the Zotye brand and its future development prospects [4]

Group 1: Tesla Model Y L Launch - Tesla officially announced the nationwide first deliveries of Model Y L on September 2, with a price of 339,000 yuan, positioning it as a luxury pure electric SUV with six seats [1] - The Model Y L features an 82 kWh battery, accelerates from 0 to 100 km/h in 4.5 seconds, and has a CLTC range of 751 km [1] - The rapid launch and delivery of Model Y L within a month of its online availability is expected to further solidify Tesla's leadership position in the competitive large six-seat SUV market [1] Group 2: Sales Data of Chery and BYD - Chery Group reported sales of 242,736 vehicles in August, with exports reaching 129,472 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 32.3% and setting a new monthly export record [2] - BYD achieved a monthly sales record of 373,626 vehicles in August, with passenger car sales at 371,501 units and overseas sales of passenger cars and pickups totaling 80,464 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 146.4% [2] - The strong sales performance of both companies indicates robust vitality in the Chinese automotive market, potentially boosting confidence in Chinese manufacturing and promoting the development of related industry chains [2] Group 3: Geely's New Model Project - Geely Holding Group signed a cooperation agreement with Wuhan Economic Development Zone on September 1 to expand investment and produce multiple new models, including the Geely Galaxy [3] - The Geely Galaxy will be the first passenger vehicle produced by Geely in Hubei, signaling the company's ongoing investment and development in the region [3] - This project reflects Geely's confidence in future market positioning and growth opportunities [3] Group 4: Challenges Faced by Zotye Auto - Zotye Auto announced that it no longer meets the conditions for resuming production of its first model, T300, as the production line and related equipment have been auctioned off by the court [4] - The production line for the T300 has failed to sell in both the first and second auctions, and the court has begun enforcing the dismantling of the production line [4] - This situation highlights the severe challenges faced by Zotye Auto and may undermine investor confidence in the brand and its future prospects [4]