华为智驾赋能，预计尚界有望促进公司销 量及盈利快速提升 核心观点 ⚫ 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 调整收入、毛利率及费用率等，预测 2025-2027 年 EPS 分别为 1.05、1.17、1.31 元（原为 0.95、1.03、1.15 元），维持可比公司 25 年 PE 平均估值 25 倍，目标价 26.25 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 公司改革力度低于预期、上汽自主及合资品牌销量低于预期、汽车出口政策变化影响、 汽车行业价格战风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 726,199 | 614,074 | 638,110 | 687,196 | 742,172 | | 同比增长 (%) | 0.7% | -15.4% | 3.9% | 7.7% | 8.0% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 25,937 | 10,376 | 20,007 | 22,346 | 25,019 | | 同比增长 (%) | -0.3% | -60.0 ...

汽车电子及精密压铸双轮驱动，盈利实现 较快增长 | | 买入 （维持） | | --- | --- | | 股价（2025年08月22日） | 31.75 元 | | 目标价格 | 46.69 元 | | 52 周最高价/最低价 | 37.31/22.18 元 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（万股） | 52,492/52,473 | | A 股市值（百万元） | 16,666 | | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | 行业 | 汽车与零部件 | | 报告发布日期 | 2025 年 08 月 23 日 | 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 7,137 | 10,158 | 12,645 | 15,093 | 17,789 | | 同比增长 (%) | 26.6% | 42.3% | 24.5% | 19.4% | 17.9% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 473 | 702 | 928 | 1,190 | 1,471 | | 同比增长 (% ...

盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 调整收入、毛利率及费用率等，预测 2025-2027 年 EPS 为 4.79、5.94、7.38 元 （原为 4.43、5.43、6.67 元），维持可比公司 2025 年 PE 平均估值 34 倍，目标价 162.86 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 乘用车行业销量低于预期、智能座舱产品业务收入低于预期、智能驾驶产品业务收入低 于预期。 智驾业务及海外市场共同促进盈利实现较 高增长 核心观点 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 21,908 | 27,618 | 34,149 | 41,452 | 49,526 | | 同比增长 (%) | 46.7% | 26.1% | 23.6% | 21.4% | 19.5% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1,537 | 2,099 | 2,799 | 3,474 | 4,314 | | 同比增长 (%) | 32.7% | 36.6% | 33.4% | 24.1% | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [8] Core Insights - AI liquid cooling is transitioning from an optional to a necessary solution, with demand expected to drive rapid growth in market space and penetration rates [8] - The acceleration of ASIC layouts and the increase in domestic computing cluster scale will open new growth opportunities for the liquid cooling market [8] - The overseas supply gap in liquid cooling will provide opportunities for domestic suppliers to expand internationally, with expectations of moving from component supply to modular and integrated solutions [8] - The AI liquid cooling sector has high barriers to entry and significant value, suggesting a favorable competitive landscape and profitability in the medium to long term [8] Summary by Sections Liquid Cooling Market Dynamics - The demand for AI computing centers is driving the need for high-density GPU clusters, leading to a shift towards liquid cooling solutions [8] - Major cloud service providers are accelerating the development of customized ASICs and integrating liquid cooling solutions [8] Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies to watch include: - Yinvik (002837, Not Rated) - Yinlun (002126, Buy) - Feilong (002536, Not Rated) - Chuanhuan Technology (300547, Not Rated) - Xiangxin Technology (002965, Not Rated) - Sulian Technology (301397, Not Rated) - Zhongding (000887, Not Rated) [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 23.75 CNY, based on a projected EPS of 0.95, 1.03, and 1.15 CNY for 2025-2027, respectively, using a PE valuation of 25 times [4][7]. Core Insights - The company has been actively promoting internal reforms, leading to improved sales performance across various segments. The integration of its passenger vehicle divisions and the focus on electric and intelligent transformation are expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [11]. - The company achieved a wholesale sales volume of 337,500 vehicles in July, marking a year-on-year increase of 34.2%, and a cumulative sales volume of 2,390,100 vehicles from January to July, up 15.0% year-on-year. This performance is better than the industry average [11]. - The upcoming launch of the "尚界 H5" model in September is anticipated to further boost sales and profitability in the self-owned brand segment, with expectations of strong market performance due to its advanced driving assistance features [11]. - The sales of joint venture brands have stabilized, with significant improvements noted in the sales of SAIC General Motors, indicating that joint venture brands will not become a burden on the company's profitability [11]. Financial Summary - The company's projected revenue for 2025 is 638.11 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9%. The operating profit is expected to reach 18.09 billion CNY, reflecting a significant recovery from a 60% decline in 2024 [6][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 11.00 billion CNY in 2025, showing a remarkable growth of 560.3% compared to 2024 [6][12]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 9.4% in 2024 to 10.2% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to stabilize around 1.7% [6][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [4][7] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from marketing reforms and new vehicle launches, which will enhance sales market share [2][11] - The forecasted EPS for 2025-2027 is 1.50, 1.76, and 2.13 RMB respectively, with a target price set at 22.50 RMB or 24.70 HKD [4][7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are 179,204 million, 240,194 million, 319,444 million, 381,363 million, and 442,685 million RMB, reflecting growth rates of 21.1%, 34.0%, 33.0%, 19.4%, and 16.1% respectively [6][12] - Operating profit is expected to grow from 3,806 million RMB in 2023A to 20,314 million RMB in 2027E, with a significant increase of 100.8% in 2024A [6][12] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 5,308 million RMB in 2023A, increasing to 21,451 million RMB by 2027E, with a notable growth of 213.3% in 2024A [6][12] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 15.3% in 2023A to 16.7% in 2027E, while the net margin is projected to stabilize around 4.7% to 4.8% during the same period [6][12] Market Position and Sales Performance - In July, Geely's total sales reached 237,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 57.7%, with new energy vehicle sales growing by 120.4% [11] - The company's market share is expected to continue rising, with a reported market share of approximately 11% in the first half of 2025, an increase of nearly 3 percentage points year-on-year [11] - The Galaxy series is showing strong sales performance, with July sales of 95,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 469.0% [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and parts industry [5] Core Insights - July saw a seasonal decline in automotive sales, with a mixed performance among manufacturers. The report highlights the importance of focusing on strong alpha vehicle manufacturers and the robotics supply chain [1][11] - The report anticipates that competitive domestic brands and new forces in intelligent driving technology will continue to gain market share by 2025. It also expects some state-owned enterprises to reverse their difficulties through reforms and enhanced cooperation [14] - The report suggests continued attention to certain automotive state-owned enterprises and companies within the humanoid robotics chain, Huawei's supply chain, Xiaomi's supply chain, T chain, and intelligent driving industry chain [2][14] Summary by Sections Sales Tracking - In July, domestic narrow passenger vehicle retail sales were approximately 1.85 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.6% but a month-on-month decline of 11.2%. New energy vehicle retail sales were estimated at about 1.01 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 15.0% and a month-on-month decline of 9.1% [8][11] - The report notes that July is traditionally a slow season for the industry, influenced by manufacturers' efforts to meet half-year sales targets in June and high temperatures in July. Overall market performance was subdued, but the second half of the year is expected to see stable growth due to consumer promotion policies and new vehicle launches [11][12] Company Performance - Among the domestic brands, only Geely reported a month-on-month sales increase in July, while other major brands like BYD, Chery, Changan, and Great Wall experienced declines. New force brands such as Hongmeng Zhixing, Leap Motor, and Xpeng saw significant sales growth, with Xpeng achieving a record monthly delivery of 36,717 units, a year-on-year increase of 229% [12][19] - The report emphasizes that in a weak overall market, companies with strong capabilities in technology, brand building, cost control, and marketing channels are likely to gain more market share [12][19] Robotics Industry - Zhiyuan Robotics received strategic investment from international groups, indicating a positive outlook for the robotics supply chain. The company is expanding into overseas markets and has begun commercializing humanoid robots in China [13][14] - The report suggests that the robotics sector is poised for a turning point, with multiple favorable developments in orders and capital, and recommends continued attention to companies in the robotics supply chain [13][14] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as SAIC Motor, JAC Motors, BYD, Seres, Changan Automobile, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, and Yutong Bus, as well as various parts suppliers like New Spring, Silver Wheel, and others [2][15][16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Neutral" [7] Core Insights - The issuance of new operational licenses for L4 level autonomous driving in Shanghai is expected to accelerate the commercialization of Robotaxi services, benefiting companies in the related supply chain [2][4] - The first batch of eight companies authorized for operation includes major players such as Baidu and SAIC, indicating a significant step towards the integration of autonomous vehicles into urban transportation [2][4] - The report highlights that the successful rollout of Tesla's Robotaxi service in the U.S. is likely to create a positive ripple effect in the domestic Robotaxi market, potentially speeding up its development [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the recent developments in the autonomous driving sector, particularly focusing on the issuance of operational licenses in Shanghai for L4 level autonomous vehicles [2][4] - It emphasizes the collaboration between intelligent driving companies and traditional taxi services to facilitate the integration of Robotaxi into existing transportation systems [7] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks for investment include: - Automakers: SAIC Motor (600104, Buy), Changan Automobile (000625, Buy) - Parts suppliers: Huayu Automotive (600741, Buy), Desay SV (002920, Buy) [4] - The report suggests that companies receiving operational licenses will be direct beneficiaries, and the overall automotive intelligence process is expected to accelerate [4] Market Expectations - The report notes that market expectations for domestic Robotaxi services are currently low, but advancements in technology and regulatory frameworks are anticipated to enhance commercialization efforts [7] - It predicts that by 2027, Shanghai aims to achieve significant milestones in L4 level autonomous driving, including over 6 million passenger trips and 80,000 TEU of cargo [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 39.36 CNY [5][2] Core Views - The company has completed a share buyback, indicating confidence in future growth prospects, with a total of 3.9865 million shares repurchased, accounting for 0.47% of total shares, at a total cost of 100 million CNY [9] - The company aims to enhance the value of its robotic joint module products, expecting to replicate the growth path seen in its new energy thermal management segment [9] - The overseas business is projected to continue growing, with Q1 2025 foreign sales accounting for over 25% of total revenue, and efforts to achieve profitability in European operations [9] Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - Adjusted EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.23 CNY, 1.63 CNY, and 2.04 CNY respectively, with a comparable company PE average of 32 times for 2025 [2] - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are 11,018 million CNY, 12,702 million CNY, 15,278 million CNY, 18,143 million CNY, and 21,502 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 29.9%, 15.3%, 20.3%, 18.8%, and 18.5% respectively [4] - Operating profit is expected to grow from 816 million CNY in 2023A to 2,201 million CNY in 2027E, with corresponding growth rates of 67.7%, 23.6%, 31.2%, 32.6%, and 25.4% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 612 million CNY in 2023A to 1,704 million CNY in 2027E, with growth rates of 59.7%, 28.0%, 30.7%, 32.6%, and 25.4% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 23.75 CNY, based on a projected EPS of 0.95, 1.03, and 1.15 CNY for 2025-2027, respectively, and a PE valuation of 25 times [4][7]. Core Views - The report suggests that SAIC-GM will not hinder the company's profit growth, as the joint venture's sales are expected to stabilize and improve profitability after internal adjustments made in the previous year [11]. - The report highlights that GM China has achieved profitability for three consecutive quarters, indicating a gradual improvement in SAIC-GM's profitability [11]. - The report anticipates that new models will drive sales and profitability for SAIC-GM in the second half of the year, with a projected wholesale sales increase of 8.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [11]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to decline by 15.4% in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 3.9%, 7.7%, and 8.0% in the subsequent years [6]. - Operating profit is expected to drop significantly by 60.0% in 2024 but rebound with a growth of 74.4% in 2025 [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decrease by 88.2% in 2024, followed by a substantial increase of 560.3% in 2025 [6]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 9.4% in 2024 to 11.1% by 2027 [6]. - The net profit margin is projected to recover from 0.3% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2027 [6].