风险提示 新能源热管理业务配套量低于预期、数字能源业务配套量低于预期、海外工厂盈利低于 预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 11,018 | 12,702 | 15,278 | 18,143 | 24,427 | | 同比增长 (%) | 29.9% | 15.3% | 20.3% | 18.8% | 34.6% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 816 | 1,009 | 1,243 | 1,671 | 2,407 | | 同比增长 (%) | 67.7% | 23.6% | 23.3% | 34.4% | 44.0% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 612 | 784 | 962 | 1,293 | 1,863 | | 同比增长 (%) | 59.7% | 28.0% | 22.8% | 34.4% | 44.1% | | 每股收益（元） | 0.72 | 0.93 | 1.14 | 1.53 | 2.20 | | 毛利 ...

预计燃气发电机业务量价齐升，将成为中 长期盈利增长弹性所在 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 预测 2025-2027 年 EPS 分别为 1.14、1.53、2.20 元（原为 1.14、1.51、1.93 元， 略调整 26-27 年收入及毛利率等），可比公司 26 年 PE 平均估值 39 倍，目标价 59.67 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 新能源热管理业务配套量低于预期、数字能源业务配套量低于预期、海外工厂盈利低于 预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 11,018 | 12,702 | 15,278 | 18,143 | 24,427 | | 同比增长 (%) | 29.9% | 15.3% | 20.3% | 18.8% | 34.6% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 816 | 1,009 | 1,243 | 1,671 | 2,407 | | 同比增长 (%) | 67.7% | 23.6% | 23.3% | 3 ...

核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 预测 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 170.41、206.04、243.18 亿元，维持可比公 司 26 年 PE 平均估值 11 倍，目标价 20.79 元人民币，23.54 港元（1 港元=0.8833 元人民币），维持买入评级。 吉利汽车 00175.HK 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 出口销量持续增长，品牌高端化逐步见效 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 179,204 | 240,194 | 319,444 | 387,363 | 448,685 | | 同比增长 (%) | 21.1% | 34.0% | 33.0% | 21.3% | 15.8% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 3,806 | 7,644 | 16,055 | 19,616 | 23,173 | | 同比增长 (%) | 4.3% | 100.8% | 110.0% | 22.2% | 18.1% | | 归属母公司净 ...

盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 预测 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 170.41、206.04、243.18 亿元，维持可比公 司 26 年 PE 平均估值 11 倍，目标价 20.79 元人民币，23.54 港元（1 港元=0.8833 元人民币），维持买入评级。 风险提示 吉利、领克、极氪品牌销量低于预期风险、成本控制不及预期风险。 公司主要财务信息 吉利汽车 00175.HK 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 出口销量持续增长，品牌高端化逐步见效 核心观点 | 姜雪晴 | 执业证书编号：S0860512060001 | | --- | --- | | | jiangxueqing@orientsec.com.cn | | 杨震 | 执业证书编号：S0860520060002 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BSW113 | | | yangzhen@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 袁俊轩 | 执业证书编号：S0860523070005 | | | yuanjunxuan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 刘宇浩 | 执业证 ...

从投资策略上看，预计部分强α汽零公司有望抵御行业风险，实现营收及盈利增长；数 据中心液冷及柴发/燃气轮机产业链、能确定进入特斯拉、Figure、智元、宇树等机器人 配套产业链的汽零及高级别自动驾驶产业链将持续迎来催化。建议持续关注燃气发电机/ 柴发产业链、人形机器人链、液冷产业链、出海链、智驾产业链公司。 汽车与零部件行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 北美电力紧张逻辑持续验证，继续关注燃 气发电机及液冷产业链公司 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 燃气发电机相关标的：银轮股份、潍柴动力；液冷相关标的：英维克、银轮股份、拓普 集团、飞龙股份、川环科技等；机器人相关标的：新泉股份、拓普集团、银轮股份、岱 美股份、三花智控、浙江荣泰、旭升集团、嵘泰股份、斯菱智驱、爱柯迪、精锻科技、 博俊科技、沪光股份等；智驾相关标的：经纬恒润、伯特利、德赛西威等；整车：比亚 迪、上汽集团、江淮汽车、赛力斯等。 风险提示 宏观经济下行影响汽车需求、上游原材料价格波动影响、车企价格战压力。 国家/地区 中国 行业 汽车与零部件行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 01 日 中性（维持） | 姜雪晴 | 执业证书编号：S086051206 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 55.87 CNY, based on a comparable company PE average valuation of 37 times for 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the long-term growth elasticity brought by gas generator-related supporting products, particularly in the context of increasing demand for gas turbines and generators due to the expansion of AI data centers in the U.S. [2][10]. - The company is positioned to enter the exhaust treatment product supply chain for gas generators, which is anticipated to contribute significantly to its profitability in the medium to long term [10]. Financial Forecasts - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.14 CNY, 1.51 CNY, and 1.93 CNY respectively [3]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 11,018 million CNY in 2023 to 21,502 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18.5% [5][11]. - Operating profit is forecasted to increase from 816 million CNY in 2023 to 2,107 million CNY in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 67.7% in 2023 [5][11]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to rise from 612 million CNY in 2023 to 1,631 million CNY in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5][11]. Key Financial Ratios - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 20.2% to 21.7% from 2025 to 2027, while the net margin is projected to improve from 6.3% in 2025 to 7.6% in 2027 [5][11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to increase from 14.1% in 2025 to 17.7% in 2027, reflecting improved profitability and efficiency [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 55.87 CNY, based on a comparable company PE average valuation of 37 times for 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the long-term growth elasticity brought by gas generator-related supporting products, which will contribute to profitability [2][10]. - The company is positioned to enter the exhaust treatment product supply chain for gas generators, anticipating a significant increase in profitability as overseas clients expand their gas and diesel generator production [10]. Financial Forecasts - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.14 CNY, 1.51 CNY, and 1.93 CNY respectively [3]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 11,018 million CNY in 2023 to 21,502 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18.5% [5][11]. - Operating profit is forecasted to increase from 816 million CNY in 2023 to 2,107 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5][11]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 20.5% in 2023 to 21.7% in 2027, while net profit margin is expected to rise from 5.6% to 7.6% over the same period [5][11]. - The return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to increase from 12.1% in 2023 to 17.7% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability and efficiency [5][11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Chinese enterprises are entering an accelerated phase of going global, which is essential for the transformation and upgrading of a manufacturing country and reflects the shift in China's economic development model [1][6]. - The transition from a GDP-driven, investment-focused model to a GNI-driven, innovation-focused model is highlighted, emphasizing the need for companies to integrate global resources to enhance production efficiency and global competitiveness [1][6]. - Chinese companies are moving into the 2.0 era of going global, transitioning from product exports to a systematic approach that includes "capacity + brand + channel," aiming for high-value segments of the industrial chain [1][6]. Group 2 - The article notes that the global easing cycle and the upturn in overseas industrial and infrastructure capital expenditure provide unexpected resilience in external demand for Chinese companies [2][6]. - Emerging markets are experiencing rapid industrialization and urbanization, leading to explosive demand for infrastructure and production equipment, while developed markets are driven by green transformation and AI infrastructure needs [2][6]. - Chinese companies are encouraged to focus on three main lines for overseas expansion: capital goods (electric power equipment, engineering machinery), high-value components (communication equipment, innovative pharmaceuticals), and consumer goods (two-wheeled vehicles, gaming) [2][6]. Group 3 - The article emphasizes that the essence of going global for Chinese enterprises is to occupy high-value segments of the industrial chain, which is a key stage in the economic transformation of a manufacturing country [6][7]. - The competitive advantages of Chinese companies in capital and technology-intensive industries, such as electric power equipment and engineering machinery, are highlighted, along with the resilience of exports under tariff pressures [6][7]. - The overseas gross profit margins of non-financial listed Chinese companies have consistently exceeded domestic margins, particularly in sectors like engineering machinery and automotive components [1][6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The upcoming release of Tesla's Optimus V3 is expected to catalyze the industry, with a focus on companies involved in the humanoid robot supply chain and those with significant advancements in autonomous driving technology [9] - The demand for gas turbines and generator sets is anticipated to surge due to increased overseas data center construction, benefiting companies in the gas turbine and robotics supply chains [9] - Companies with strong alpha characteristics in the automotive and parts sector are expected to withstand industry risks and achieve revenue and profit growth [3] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Strong alpha automotive and parts companies are expected to resist industry risks and achieve revenue and profit growth; focus on advanced autonomous driving supply chains, data center liquid cooling, and gas turbine industries [3] - Suggested companies to watch include: - Humanoid robot-related: Xinquan Co., Ltd. (603179, Buy), Top Group (601689, Buy), Yinlun Co., Ltd. (002126, Buy), and others [4] - Gas turbine-related: Yinlun Co., Ltd. (002126, Buy) [4] - Liquid cooling-related: Yingweike (002837, Not Rated), Yinlun Co., Ltd. (002126, Buy), Top Group (601689, Buy), and others [4] - Autonomous driving-related: Jingwei Hengrun-W (688326, Buy), Bertley (603596, Buy), Desay SV (002920, Buy) [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [3][6] Core Insights - Geely's sales performance in January slightly exceeded industry expectations, with total sales of 270,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [9] - The company's export sales saw significant growth, with January exports reaching 60,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 121.2% [9] - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 17.041 billion, 20.604 billion, and 24.318 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a target price of 23.37 HKD [3][5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023-2027 are as follows: 179.204 billion, 240.194 billion, 319.444 billion, 387.363 billion, and 448.685 billion yuan, with growth rates of 21.1%, 34.0%, 33.0%, 21.3%, and 15.8% respectively [5][10] - Operating profit is expected to grow from 3.806 billion yuan in 2023 to 23.173 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 4.3%, 100.8%, 110.0%, 22.2%, and 18.1% [5][10] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 15.3% in 2023 to 17.3% in 2027 [10][11] - The report indicates a significant increase in the net profit attributable to the parent company, with a forecast of 5.308 billion yuan in 2023, rising to 24.318 billion yuan by 2027 [5][10]