成本支撑减弱，锂价弱势震荡 碳酸锂周报20250609 研究员：张重洋 研究员：王艳红 从业资格号：Z0020996 投资咨询号：Z0010675 Email：zhangcy@zxqh.net Email：wangyh@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851554 Tel：027-68851554 2 核心观点 产业基本面-供给端 1 4 其他重要影响因素 3 产业基本面-需求端 目 录 核心观点 供给端：本周国内碳酸锂产量环比增加891吨至17471吨，锂辉石端产量有所增加。因锂矿成本降低，6月非一体化供 应存增量预期。5月智利出口至中国碳酸锂量为0.97万吨，环比减少38%，下降较明显。本周国内碳酸锂社会库存环比 增加861吨至13.24万吨，冶炼厂、下游及其他环节的库存分别为5.71万吨、4.11万吨和3.42万吨。冶炼厂和其他环节 小幅累库，整体库存处于高位。中长期维度，今明两年碳酸锂供应过剩的压力仍较大； 需求端：据调研，6月下游需求环比基本持平，动力端排产回落，储能电芯存在一定抢出口行为。终端市场维持较快 增速，5月1-25日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售72.6万辆，零售渗透率达53.5%； ...

Core Viewpoint - SQM is addressing the global lithium supply surplus issue as demand falls short of expectations while new supplies come online, leading to a decline in lithium prices from their peak at the end of 2022 [1] Group 1: Company Strategy - SQM's CEO, Ricardo Ramos, stated that the company will continue efforts to increase total production capacity of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide to 240,000 tons and 100,000 tons respectively [1] - The company plans to continue processing lithium sulfate in China [1] Group 2: Market Context - The current market situation reflects a contrast between SQM's approach of increasing production and the strategies of some high-cost producers who are cutting back on output and spending [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the ongoing decline in lithium prices, SQM, one of the largest lithium producers globally, has achieved record lithium sales in the first quarter due to low-cost expansion and strong demand from the electric vehicle market, particularly in China, as well as new demand from energy storage systems [1] Group 1 - SQM reported a 27% year-over-year increase in lithium sales for the three months ending in March [1] - The growth in lithium sales is attributed to the robust expansion of the electric vehicle market and emerging needs from energy storage systems [1]

碳酸锂市场总体库存降500吨至13.2万吨，下游库存降3000吨至4.2万吨，冶炼厂库存增3800吨在5.5万 吨，中间环节积极去库。 机构观点 南华期货（603093）：二季度碳酸锂供应过剩局面不改，抢出口预期能否落地有待观察；锂矿与锂盐库 存双高，锂盐产能出清压力逐渐向矿端传导，矿价松动将让成本端继续下移，后续关注矿与盐的螺旋式 下跌以及供给端企业异动。 正信期货：现货市场交投清淡，锂盐厂挺价惜售，供给端产量增加，进口回升，库存压力较大，锂矿价 格下跌削弱成本支撑，中美经贸会谈利好储能电池出口，短期锂价预计震荡。 5月16日，国内期市有色金属板块全线飘绿。其中，碳酸锂期货盘面表现偏弱，截至发稿主力合约大幅 下挫3.84%，报62020.0元/吨。 【消息面汇总】 5月16日富宝锂电网发布数据显示，电碳现货基差指数为530元/吨（持平）；电池级碳酸锂报63350元/ 吨（-1300元/吨）；工业级碳酸锂（综合）报62500元/吨（-900元/吨）；电池级碳酸锂长协均价64450 元/吨（-100元/吨）。 5月15日，广期所发布《关于征集碳酸锂期货注册品牌的通知》，注册品牌要求具备健全的商品流向追 溯机制、 ...