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我眼中的牛市和熊市
雪球· 2025-08-23 03:34
有人和我讲牛市行情来了要怎么样怎么样选股,比如2014年的牛市,垃圾股满天飞,后面到银行,券商,最后到大蓝筹,然后垃圾股开始跌,大 蓝筹还是上涨的,但我自己思考了一下不管是牛市,熊市我选择股票的投资逻辑还是一样的,没有什么变化。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示:本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见,所涉及标的不作推荐,据此买卖,风险自负。 作者: 金哥777 来源:雪球 最近大盘越来越强,成交量越来越大,很多垃圾股暴涨,连洋河中报暴雷后股价还可以大涨,以前会认为有一两个跌停,亏得越多的公司股价反而 会暴涨,这难道是牛市来了嘛? 以前我认为买股票就是买公司的一小部分股权,就是合伙做生意,然后就想合伙做生意肯定想多分红,成长好也是为了以后高分红。但最近几年发 现这些常识性的东西,既然是属于另类,异类,可能整个市场占比不到百分之5,那百分之5认真研究公司基本面,了解商业模式,了解财务数据 的人可能只有那百分之5的十分之一,所以这市场能长期赚钱的人少之又少,我希望我自己努力成为那百分之1,目前我重仓的两个公司是藏格矿 业和紫金矿业。 关于藏格矿业的投资逻辑从2023年9月份开始买入到现在应该没什么变化,但 ...
外资锂矿山二季度财报梳理-20250819
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 00:42
| œ | I | 4 | | --- | --- | --- | | œ | | | | 第一部分 | 概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 2 | | | | 2 | | | | 2 | | | 第二部分 | 澳洲、美洲矿山财报梳理 3 | | | | 3 | | | | 8 | | | | 10 | | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 11 | | | | 免责声明 | 13 | 有色板块研发报告 外资锂矿山二季度财报梳理 第一部分 概要 银河期货 第 2 页 共 13 页 有色板块研发报告 第二部分 澳洲、美洲矿山财报梳理 第 3 页 共 13 页 有色板块研发报告 第 4 页 共 13 页 有色板块研发报告 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Greenbushes 2023 2024 2025 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Pilbara 2023 2024 2025 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Mt Marion 2023 2024 2025 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Q1 Q2 Q3 ...
威领股份股价上涨2.64% 嘉宇矿业实现复工复产
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-08-15 17:55
Group 1 - The latest stock price of Weiling Co., Ltd. is 12.43 yuan, an increase of 0.32 yuan from the previous trading day, with a highest intraday price of 12.48 yuan and a lowest of 12.10 yuan, and a trading volume of 88,728 hands, amounting to 1.09 billion yuan [1] - The company operates in the energy metals sector and owns lithium mining resources. The latest announcement indicates that its acquisition of Jiayu Mining will resume production starting June 2025. The company has formed a professional team to update mining infrastructure and equipment and optimize mining plans after gaining control [1] - On the capital flow front, the main funds experienced a net outflow of 7.14 million yuan on that day, with a cumulative net outflow of 26.99 million yuan over the past five days [1]
江特电机(002176.SZ):在宜春地区现拥有多个采矿权和探矿权,持有或控制的锂矿资源量1亿吨以上
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-08-13 10:01
Core Viewpoint - Jiangte Electric (002176.SZ) has experienced a significant stock price fluctuation, with a cumulative closing price deviation exceeding 20% over three trading days, indicating abnormal trading activity [1] Group 1: Lithium Mining Operations - The company holds multiple mining and exploration rights in the Yichun region, with lithium ore resources exceeding 100 million tons [1] - The Qikeng lithium mine is the company's most important mining area, with a mining license obtained for an area of 1.3826 square kilometers [1] - The average Li2O grade is calculated at 0.44%, with ore resources amounting to 72.93 million tons; if calculated at an average grade of 0.39%, the resource reaches 126.67 million tons, classifying it as a large lithium mine [1] Group 2: Robotics Industry Development - The company recognizes the humanoid robot industry as a historic development opportunity and is focusing on this sector [1] - Jiangte Electric is developing humanoid robot joint modules through its subsidiary, Weier (Shenzhen) Intelligent Drive Co., Ltd [1] - The company is actively collaborating with upstream and downstream partners in the industry, enhancing communication and cooperation with leading robot companies and component suppliers to improve product and supply chain quality and advantages [1]
宁德时代锂矿停产引发供应中断担忧 大摩预警锂价上行风险
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-13 06:57
摩根士丹利发布研报指出,宁德时代(300750)(03750)江西锂矿据报停产至少3个月;大摩曾预计该矿在 2025年的产量约占全球供应量的4%,因此,若长时间中断,将削弱其所预测的供应盈余。不过,从长 期来看,供需平衡仍面临挑战。 大摩曾预计今年宁德时代江西宜春"枧下窝"锂矿的产量为5.85万吨,约占全球产量的4%。报道称,此次 停产预计至少持续3个月,这将进一步削减大摩目前对2025年6万吨的小幅过剩预期。短期内这给锂价带 来了上行风险,不过长期来看供需平衡仍具挑战性。 锂供应中断 随着宁德时代引发的最新一轮锂供应中断,加上近期在低价环境下其他供应端表现出的自律(例如,四 川一家5万吨锂盐生产商因利润率低而停产),锂市场有望逐渐恢复平衡,从而支撑当前价格。不过,库 存仍处于高位,大摩注意到,如果价格反弹过快,其他供应源可能会受到激励而加快增产,这将给2026 年及以后带来挑战。 平衡本已趋紧 在最近的价格报告中,大摩指出锂价可能暂时触底,2025年供应和需求将以相同的速度增长。大摩预计 2024年结转的小幅过剩60千吨,但如果没有进一步的供应纪律,预计到2026年将增加至170千吨。取决 于建新煤矿停电的 ...
为比亚迪、宁德时代供货,江西宜春冲出一家锂矿IPO,豪募31亿!
格隆汇APP· 2025-08-12 09:51
为比亚迪、宁德时代供货,江西宜春冲出一家锂矿IPO,豪募31亿! 原创 阅读全文 格隆汇新股 ...
申万宏源策略政策专题研究:反内卷有哪些国际成功经验可借鉴?
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-08-12 06:44
Key Points - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the need to "break the internal competition" as highlighted by the General Secretary in July 2025, with a structured approach focusing on three dimensions: industry, enterprise, and government [4][6] - The report identifies the formation of effective price alliances as a significant international strategy to combat internal competition, characterized by public agreements on market share distribution, unified pricing, and supply limitations [4][12] - Notable examples of successful price alliances include OPEC and the iron ore price alliance, which provide valuable lessons for domestic policy [4][44] Group 1: Price Alliances - Price alliances are defined by their key features: public agreements for market share distribution, unified pricing, and supply restrictions [12] - The report discusses the historical context and evolution of OPEC, highlighting its ability to maintain price stability through coordinated production adjustments among member countries [22][38] - The iron ore price alliance is presented as a model for collective negotiation, demonstrating the importance of industry collaboration to enhance bargaining power [4][40] Group 2: International Examples - Countries like Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile are working towards establishing a "Lithium Triangle OPEC" to coordinate lithium production and pricing [44] - Indonesia has proposed a nickel group similar to OPEC, aiming to leverage its significant nickel reserves for better market positioning [46] - The report notes that Russia and Qatar have expressed interest in forming a natural gas output organization akin to OPEC, indicating a trend towards resource-based alliances [49] Group 3: Domestic Implications - The report suggests that China should establish industry alliances for key resources and manufacturing sectors, focusing on "quota + price limits" to secure pricing power and prevent market disruption [4][57] - It emphasizes the need for collective bargaining in industries like photovoltaics and new energy, advocating for a unified national approach to enhance negotiation strength [4][58] - The report outlines a strategic framework for managing key strategic resources, including refined export quotas and minimum price regulations to protect national interests [57]
A股又大涨,火速研判!“或再度上攻”
中国基金报· 2025-08-11 11:37
Core Viewpoint - The recent rally in A-shares is attributed to a combination of favorable policies, improved corporate fundamentals, liquidity, and restored investor confidence, with a cautiously optimistic outlook for the market's mid-term upward trend [4][6][10]. Market Performance - As of August 11, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3647.55, up 0.34%, marking six consecutive days of gains; the Shenzhen Component rose 1.46% to 11291.43, and the ChiNext Index increased nearly 2% [2][3]. Factors Driving the Market - Multiple factors are contributing to the six-day rally, including: - Policy support, such as the China Securities Regulatory Commission's control over IPO issuance to alleviate concerns about capital diversion [6]. - Improvement in corporate fundamentals, particularly in the lithium battery sector due to supply chain dynamics and seasonal demand in the electric vehicle market [6]. - External factors, including signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts, which could enhance global liquidity and provide a supportive environment for A-shares [6][9]. Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest focusing on: - New productive forces, "anti-involution" policies, and domestic demand recovery as key investment directions [11][12]. - AI sector, particularly overseas computing power chains and domestic AI applications, as having strong fundamental prospects [12]. - Non-bank financials and cyclical sectors benefiting from policy stimuli aimed at economic stabilization [12]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience a rotation of hot sectors, with cautious optimism regarding the mid-term upward trend due to the accumulation of incremental capital and improving profit expectations for A-shares [10][12].
A股,全线爆发!近4200股飘红
证券时报· 2025-08-11 10:13
Market Overview - A-shares experienced a broad increase on August 11, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, marking six consecutive days of gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.34% to 3647.55 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.46% to 11291.43 points, and the ChiNext Index surged by 1.96% to 2379.82 points [1][2] - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 18501 billion, an increase of 1135 billion from the previous day [1][2] Sector Performance PEEK Materials - The PEEK materials sector saw significant gains, with companies like Huami New Materials and Shuangyi Technology hitting the 20% daily limit up, and others like Zhongyan New Materials rising approximately 15% [6][8] - PEEK materials are recognized for their low density, high strength, and chemical stability, making them essential for lightweight humanoid robots, enhancing their performance and reliability [8] AI Industry Chain - Stocks in the AI industry chain were notably active, with companies like Weirgao and Dazhu Laser reaching the 20% limit up, and others like Tiancheng Technology and Luyiguangdian also showing strong performance [10][12] - The recent release of OpenAI's GPT-5 is expected to accelerate AI applications and commercialization, benefiting internet companies and enhancing the AI investment landscape [10][12] Lithium Mining - The lithium mining sector saw a collective rise, with companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium reaching their daily limit up, indicating strong market interest [14][16] - The expiration of mining permits for certain lithium projects is expected to impact domestic lithium carbonate production by nearly 12%, potentially leading to a tightening supply and higher lithium prices [16]